New York, March 1, 2026, 00:57 EST — The market is closed.
- U.S. and Israeli forces killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Tehran to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to finish Friday at 6,878.88. The Dow wrapped up at 48,977.92, and the Nasdaq settled at 22,668.21.
- Monday brings the ISM factory survey, Wednesday features the Fed’s Beige Book, and Friday wraps with February’s payrolls—traders have their eyes on these three U.S. releases next.
Oil will likely shape the early mood for U.S. stocks this week, overshadowing earnings as traders react to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sharply increasing the risk of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. “Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday,” Barclays analysts said. Reuters
The jolt lands just as Wall Street wrapped up a shaky February. Investors are questioning if they’ve bid up the AI standouts too much, leaving laggards in the dust. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched their steepest drops since March 2025. A hotter wholesale inflation print only fueled doubts about near-term rate cuts.
Friday brings the next test: February’s jobs numbers are forecast to show a slowdown, with payrolls rising by around 60,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. That’s according to a Reuters poll. Also due, the delayed retail sales report for January lands the same day. “Investors are trying to determine who the winners and losers are,” said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, as AI starts to shake up budgets and business plans. Reuters
Oil prices drew attention ahead of the weekend: Brent closed Friday at $72.48 a barrel, U.S. crude at $67.02. Fresh U.S. inflation numbers weighed on risk sentiment, steering investors to Treasuries and gold. The 10-year U.S. yield wrapped Friday near 3.96%. Gold climbed roughly 1.5%.
What was once speculation is now a hard logistical halt: multiple tanker operators, oil majors and big trading firms have paused shipments of crude, fuels and LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, several trading sources confirmed to Reuters. The move comes after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared, via an EU naval mission, that “no ship is allowed to pass” the critical waterway. Around 20% of the world’s oil moves through Hormuz, as does a hefty share of Qatar’s LNG exports. Reuters
OPEC+ faces a tight deadline. According to two people familiar with the discussions, eight members of the group are set for a Sunday meeting and are now weighing whether to ramp up April output by 411,000 barrels per day—more than previously planned. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, notably, had already boosted exports before the strikes. (OPEC+ combines OPEC countries with allies like Russia.)
Natural gas is now under pressure, too. Israel’s Energy Ministry has told companies to temporarily halt output from parts of the country’s natural gas reservoirs, sources said. That includes the Leviathan field run by Chevron. Energean confirmed its production vessel that services multiple Israeli fields is also offline.
Geopolitical tensions aside, the usual calendar hurdles remain in play. PMI surveys—those early business snapshots of manufacturing and services—and Friday’s U.S. payrolls numbers take center stage for the March 2-6 stretch, according to S&P Global. Their recent flash read pointed to cooling U.S. momentum while the euro zone showed more resilience.
Earnings are still set to drive action, with investors zeroing in on data-center plays. Target and Best Buy report Tuesday. Broadcom comes later in the week—its results will shed light on custom-chip orders and AI network demand. Susquehanna’s Christopher Rolland said “the demand backdrop remains robust,” highlighting Google and Meta capital spending that tops “Street” expectations. Costco is also reporting this week. Kiplinger
Still, if oil doesn’t come down, there’s a straightforward risk. William Jackson at Capital Economics says Brent could hit $80 even if tensions are contained. A longer supply shock? Oil might test $100, tacking on about 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation — numbers that redraw the map for rate cut prospects and stock valuations.
Traders are set to gauge the initial moves in oil and equity futures early in the week before shifting focus to a packed U.S. data slate: manufacturing and services surveys, plus the March 6 payrolls landing Friday. Big-box retailers and chipmakers will also be dropping their results.
