Warsaw, March 1, 2026, 09:41 CET — Market shut.
- WIG20 in Warsaw closed out Friday at 3,440.02, dropping 0.24%. The broader WIG index edged down 0.08%.
- The Monetary Policy Council in Poland is scheduled to convene March 3-4, marking the week’s key domestic macro event.
- Fitch left Poland’s rating at ‘A-’ with a negative outlook on Feb. 27—fiscal jitters still matter.
Polish equities open the week with attention zeroed in on the National Bank of Poland’s policy move—bank stocks are set to drive action whichever way things break.
The central bank left its reference rate unchanged at 4.00% during the early-February meeting, pausing after last year’s round of rate cuts.
Blue chips wrapped up February nursing slight losses, with positioning remaining choppy. Adam Stańczak, analyst at DM BOŚ, called attention to the “psychological barrier” at 3,500 points, warning about a potential “double top”—a technical setup that can signal reversal if prices stall twice near the same high. Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Środowiska
Friday delivered a fractured session: KGHM surged 4.26%. Banks went the other way—PKO BP slid 1.22%, Santander Bank Polska lost 1.50%. CD Projekt dropped 2.61%, a notable drag on tech within the index.
Alior Bank has received a recommendation from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, telling it not to pay out more than 50% of its 2025 profit as dividends. The regulator also instructed the lender to steer clear of any moves that might reduce its “own funds” — that is, regulatory capital — unless it consults first. GPW
Allegro has wrapped up the sale of its Slovenian and Croatian units to Mutares, handing over full ownership of Mimovrste d.o.o. and Internet Mall d.o.o., plus the tied-in tech assets and business support teams. According to the company, the actual financial effect lines up closely with previous forecasts. Allegro will no longer include the divested business in its consolidated results.
Politics is lurking in the backdrop once more. Poland’s parliament signed off on a bill tapping into 43.7 billion euros in EU defence loans, but a presidential veto still looms, leaving investors braced for potential jolts in fiscal messaging.
GPW rolled out a fresh listing format. The exchange said it’s now offering ETNs—exchange-traded notes, a type of debt security pegged to an underlying asset—including Poland’s debut products tied to physically backed digital assets, issued by Sweden’s Virtune AB.
Manufacturing PMI numbers from S&P Global Poland hit traders’ screens Monday, offering a first pulse on local factory activity that could sway views on domestic growth and rate bets.
Eurostat’s flash estimate on euro area inflation lands Tuesday, March 3—a data point with the potential to shake up European bond yields and ripple across CEE risk sentiment.
Global risk sentiment is key for Warsaw’s export-focused stocks and banks. Friday brings the U.S. jobs report, a data point that frequently shifts bets on Fed moves and the outlook for dollar funding.
The risk is clear enough: if the MPC leans hawkish, or if political wrangling over fiscal and defence budgets turns disorderly, banks could feel the impact first, dragging the index off its highs. A weaker mood globally after the latest U.S. data could have a similar effect.
This week’s key event: the MPC’s rate decision set for Wednesday, March 4. Investors are zeroed in not only on the headline move, but also on any hints in the wording about future policy.
