New York, Jan 31, 2026, 15:14 (EST) — Market closed
- AXP closed Friday down, slipping after narrowly missing profit estimates for the quarter, despite beating consensus on its 2026 forecast.
- The key debate centers on spending patterns of wealthier cardholders and the rising costs of premium card benefits.
- Investors are set to seek new management insights during a Feb. 10 investor circuit appearance.
American Express shares dropped 1.8% Friday, ending at $352.17. Earlier in the day, the stock dipped to $344.50 after the company released its quarterly earnings and forecast.
This matters now as investors search for clear signs of U.S. consumer demand in 2026. Since American Express caters mostly to higher-income customers, its spending figures often influence market sentiment far beyond just its own stock.
Costs are another sticking point. The company has poured money into premium card perks and tech upgrades, but investors want evidence this spending is driving growth, not just inflating expenses.
American Express reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.53 on $18.98 billion in revenue. Card spending on its network, known as billed business, climbed 9% to $445.1 billion, while expenses increased 10% to $14.5 billion. The company also extended its co-brand card partnership with British Airways. Looking ahead to 2026, it projects revenue growth between 9% and 10%, with EPS forecasted at $17.30 to $17.90. American Express plans to boost its quarterly dividend by roughly 16% to $0.95, starting with the first-quarter 2026 payout.
Christophe Le Caillec told Reuters the company expects “no discontinuity” in spending. He added millennials and Gen Z now outspend Gen X on American Express cards in the U.S. consumer segment. Analysts at Citigroup linked the quarter’s slight miss to rising expenses, while Truist pointed out the fourth quarter reflected the “cost of the Platinum refresh” with no matching gain in new accounts. AmEx shares have jumped 24.7% in 2025, outperforming Visa and Mastercard. The company also faces renewed scrutiny as Donald Trump’s proposed one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates looms. Estimates from LSEG show AmEx’s 2026 profit forecast midpoint sitting above consensus. Reuters
American Express slid during a sluggish Friday for U.S. equities, with investors grappling over unclear Federal Reserve leadership and inflation cues. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined 0.4%.
Chief Executive Stephen J. Squeri reported a 9% increase in restaurant spending for the quarter, with luxury merchant spending surging 15% and retail up 10%. “We’re really bullish from a consumer perspective,” he remarked during the earnings call. The Wall Street Journal
But risks remain. A recent filing highlighted threats from a slowing economy that could drag on spending and credit performance. It also pointed to possible pricing regulations—like caps on credit card interest rates—and network rules that might pressure both revenue and profits.
Wall Street is closed for the weekend, but eyes will be on AXP when trading picks back up Monday to see if the post-earnings shift holds. The next big update from management is set for the UBS Financial Services Conference on Feb. 10.
