New York, January 5, 2026, 12:39 PM EST — Regular session
Exxon Mobil Corp shares rose about 2% to $125.08 in midday trading on Monday, as energy stocks gained after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. Analysts at J.P. Morgan said the upheaval could improve the odds Exxon recovers arbitration damages — compensation ordered by an arbitration panel after a legal dispute — tied to assets seized in 2007. Reuters
The move matters because Venezuela holds roughly 17% of global oil reserves, and any shift in U.S. sanctions policy would reshape long-dated supply expectations and, in turn, the price outlook for oil producers. JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said a political transition could lift Venezuela’s output to 1.3–1.4 million barrels per day within two years and as high as 2.5 million over the next decade, while Goldman Sachs estimated a $4-a-barrel downside risk to 2030 prices if output reaches 2 million bpd. Reuters
Crude prices rose more than 1% in choppy trade, with Brent up 1.43% at $61.62 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate up 1.57% at $58.22 by late morning in New York. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies — kept output steady on Sunday, underscoring that supply outside Venezuela remains ample. Reuters
The broader bid was visible across the sector, with Chevron up 5.2% and ConocoPhillips up 2.9%. The S&P 500 energy index rose 1.3% as the wider U.S. market advanced. Reuters
Washington’s message to oil executives has been less straightforward than the rally implied. White House and State Department officials have told U.S. oil executives in recent weeks that companies would need to move quickly and invest significant capital in Venezuela if they want compensation for assets expropriated two decades ago, a Reuters report said. Reuters
Exxon no longer has an operating presence in Venezuela after it declined to migrate projects to joint ventures with state oil company PDVSA. In 2023, Exxon said Venezuela owed it $984.5 million in compensation, and a U.S. court in September 2025 recognized the obligation, Reuters reported; “Exxon could also return, but is not owed as much money,” said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Reuters
But the path from headlines to barrels — and cash — is uncertain. Oil industry executives said the Trump administration has not consulted Exxon, Chevron or ConocoPhillips about Venezuela before or after Maduro’s capture, contradicting the president’s public claim, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the main macro risk would come through a sustained oil-price surge that has not materialized so far. Reuters
Investors are also weighing a softer baseline for crude in 2026. A Reuters poll of 34 economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $61.27 a barrel in 2026 and U.S. crude $58.15, with supply expected to exceed demand, though the survey was conducted before the Venezuela strike and the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters
Traders’ next near-term checkpoint is Friday’s U.S. Employment Situation report for December 2025, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, a release that can move rate expectations, the dollar and oil — and, by extension, Exxon’s shares.
