Updated: 5 December 2025 – informational only, not financial advice.
Woodside share price snapshot: where ASX: WDS stands today
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS, NYSE: WDS) is trading in early Friday trade around A$25.45 after closing at A$25.55 on Thursday, 4 December 2025, up 0.59% for that session.
Key numbers around the stock right now:
- ASX close (4 Dec 2025): A$25.55
- Recent intraday range: ~A$25.43–25.69
- 52‑week range: ~A$18.61–27.30
- Market cap: ~A$48.6 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~10.8–11x earnings
- Dividend yield: roughly 6.4–6.6%, based on 2025 dividends of US$0.84 and US$0.82 (about A$1.60+ equivalent) and current share price.
On the NYSE, Woodside’s U.S. ADRs (ticker: WDS) closed at US$16.89 on 4 December 2025.
So the market is pricing Woodside as a high‑yield, mid‑teens P/E LNG and oil producer with modest share price gains over the past year and plenty of moving pieces under the surface.
Q3 2025 results: higher volumes, softer prices
Woodside’s most recent detailed update is the third‑quarter 2025 report for the period to 30 September. The headline mix:
- Production: 50.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), down from 53.1 MMboe in Q3 2024 but up year‑to‑date (149.9 MMboe vs 142.4 MMboe in 2024).
- Sales volumes: 55.0 MMboe in Q3 (598 kboe/d), slightly below last year but broadly stable.
- Total revenue:US$3.36 billion for the quarter, down about 9–9.5% year‑on‑year from US$3.71 billion, mainly because realised prices were lower than the bumper levels of 2024.
Pricing and margins:
- Average realised price: US$60 per boe vs US$65 a year earlier.
- LNG produced: US$9.5/MMBtu vs US$10.8/MMBtu a year ago.
Despite the revenue dip, Woodside raised full‑year 2025 production guidance to 192–197 MMboe (from 188–195 MMboe), citing strong performance at its new Sangomar oil project in Senegal and high reliability at its Australian LNG plants (Pluto and North West Shelf).
Capital expenditure is heavy:
- Q3 capex excluding Louisiana LNG: ~US$1.05 billion
- Q3 Louisiana LNG capex: ~US$0.50 billion
- YTD Louisiana LNG spend: just over US$3.1 billion
So the story from the quarterly numbers is:
Volumes up vs 2024, prices softer, revenue lower, but guidance higher and capex bill very large.
Capital Markets Day 2025: the 2032 growth plan
At its Capital Markets Day (CMD) on 5 November 2025, Woodside sketched out an aggressive roadmap to 2032.
The key targets (management emphasises these are targets, not formal guidance):
- Annual sales volumes:
- 2024: 203.5 MMboe
- 2032 target: >300 MMboe
- Implied CAGR: >6%
- Net operating cash flow:
- 2024: US$5.8 billion
- 2032 target: ~US$9 billion (again ~6% annual growth)
- Woodside also outlined a “pathway” to lifting dividends per share around 50% by 2032, assuming these production and cash‑flow targets land and commodity prices behave. TechStock²+1
The growth engine behind those numbers is a cluster of megaprojects:
- Scarborough gas + Pluto LNG Train 2 (Australia):
- Scarborough is around 91% complete, targeting first LNG in the second half of 2026.
- Pluto 2 is a 5 mtpa expansion feeding off Scarborough gas.
- Sangomar oil (Senegal): ramping up with very high reported reliability (~98%) and strong Q3 volumes.
- Trion oil (Mexico): about 43% complete, aiming for first oil in 2028.
- Louisiana LNG (U.S. Gulf Coast): three‑train facility, ~19% complete overall in Q3, Train 1 at ~25%, targeting first LNG in 2029.
- Beaumont low‑carbon ammonia (U.S.): part of a plan to invest US$5 billion in lower‑carbon products and services by 2030.
On the CMD slides, Woodside pitched itself as:
- A large‑scale LNG and oil producer with ~70% EBITDA margins in 2024,
- That has returned more than US$11 billion to shareholders since 2022,
- And still believes it can deliver growth while funding new‑energy projects and meeting emissions targets.
Those are ambitious numbers. The share price today suggests the market believes some of that story, but definitely isn’t paying for perfection.
New LNG deals: Greater Sunrise, Williams and Saudi Aramco step in
Several recent announcements plug directly into Woodside’s long‑term LNG narrative.
1. Williams backs Louisiana LNG
In late October, Woodside announced that Williams – a major U.S. pipeline operator – will take:
- 10% of the Louisiana LNG holding company, and
- 80% of the Driftwood pipeline that supplies gas,
in exchange for US$378 million in cash plus US$1.9 billion of project capex contributions.
This:
- De‑risks the midstream side by bringing in a specialist with 33,000+ miles of U.S. pipeline experience,
- Helps ease balance‑sheet pressure on a US$17.5 billion project, and
- Signals that Woodside still intends to sell down a further 10–20% to end up with about 50% ownership.
Louisiana LNG already has offtake tied up with Uniper in Germany and a heads of agreement with Turkey’s BOTAS, positioning it to serve European buyers cutting Russian gas imports.
2. Saudi Aramco LNG deals on the horizon
On 14 November, GuruFocus reported that Saudi Aramco is preparing to sign LNG supply agreements with Woodside and Commonwealth LNG, likely during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington, D.C.
The article highlights:
- Woodside’s strong operating margin (about 45%) and net margin (just over 21%),
- Moderate leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~0.38),
- But an Altman Z‑score of 1.31, which technically sits in the “distress” zone and warns that leverage + big capex always deserves respect. GuruFocus
If those Aramco agreements are signed on the expected terms, they would add another piece of long‑term offtake and customer diversification to Woodside’s LNG portfolio.
3. Greater Sunrise: decades‑old gas fields finally move
The most politically interesting development is the long‑stalled Greater Sunrise gas project between Australia and Timor‑Leste.
On 25 November 2025, Woodside and Timor‑Leste’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources signed a cooperation agreement to mature a Timor‑based LNG concept:
- Greenfield LNG plant of about 5 million tonnes per annum,
- With a domestic gas facility and helium extraction plant,
- Targeting first LNG between 2032 and 2035, subject to concept selection and final investment decisions.
The workplan covers commercial and technical studies and runs in parallel with negotiations over fiscal, regulatory and legal frameworks between the Sunrise joint venture and the Timor‑Leste and Australian governments.
Timor‑Leste’s president José Ramos‑Horta has publicly argued that improved trust with both Canberra and Woodside makes the 2032–35 timeline realistic and sees this project as central to his country’s economic future.
For Woodside, Greater Sunrise adds very long‑dated LNG optionality layered on top of Scarborough, Pluto 2 and Louisiana – essentially a potential second wave of growth in the 2030s, with helium offering an extra high‑value by‑product.
Labour and ESG headwinds: Pluto 2 strike vote and climate backlash
It’s not all smooth sailing.
Pluto LNG 2 strike vote
On 24 November, Australia’s Fair Work Commission approved a ballot on protected industrial action at the Pluto LNG 2 construction site.
Unions argue that Pluto 2 workers are paid about 30% less per hour than workers doing similar jobs at Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG, and are pushing for a roughly 30% pay rise and better conditions.
On 4 December, Reuters reported that:
- 99% of Offshore Alliance members voted in favour of strike action at Pluto 2, and
- Around 400 members of the Electrical Trades Union also voted at near‑99% in favour.
What happens next?
- Worker representatives now need to decide what form industrial action will take.
- Any sustained strike could slow construction at Pluto 2, which is supposed to start shipping LNG from H2 2026 and is central to Woodside’s near‑term volume and cash‑flow growth.
In other words, Pluto 2 is both a growth catalyst and an execution risk.
ESG and reputational pressure
Woodside is also under intensifying climate and ESG scrutiny:
- Monash University has decided not to renew a A$43 million partnership with Woodside that dated back to 2019; the “Woodside Building for Technology and Design” will lose the Woodside branding in 2026 after staff and student protests over fossil fuel ties. TechStock²
- Activist group Market Forces recently released research showing Australia’s largest super funds still hold over A$33 billion in companies expanding fossil fuels, with Woodside one of the poster‑child names. Funds are accused of “greenwashing” while remaining heavily exposed to climate transition risk. TechStock²
While neither of these events hits near‑term cash flow, persistent ESG pressure can:
- Make capital more expensive,
- Increase the risk of policy surprises (for example stricter emissions rules), and
- Nudge some institutional investors to demand tighter climate commitments or cut exposure altogether.
How the market values Woodside today
Different analytical lenses give very different answers to the “is WDS cheap?” question.
Fundamental valuation models
- Simply Wall St DCF model estimates a fair value of about A$54.37 per share, implying Woodside is trading at roughly a 52% discount. Their model uses forecast free cash flow rising from US$1.17 billion to about US$3.17 billion by 2035 and concludes the stock is significantly undervalued on a long‑term cash‑flow basis.
- The same platform notes Woodside’s P/E of ~11.05x is below both the wider oil & gas industry (~13.6x) and a broader peer set (~22.5x). On that relative metric, Woodside again screens as undervalued.
- StockAnalysis shows a market cap of about A$48.6 billion, revenue around A$21 billion and a P/E near 10.9x, with a 6.5% dividend yield based on recent payouts.
- Not everyone’s model is bullish: ValueInvesting.io, using a Peter Lynch–style fair value formula, spits out a fair value of just A$11.85 per share as of 4 December – well below the current price – implying Woodside is overvalued on that particular metric.
So depending on which spreadsheet you believe, Woodside is either wildly undervalued, fairly priced, or mildly expensive.
Dividend and income angle
Two points matter to dividend hunters:
- Yield: With 2025 dividends of US$0.84 (paid in April) and US$0.82 (paid in September), Woodside is yielding about 6.4–6.6% at current prices.
- Coverage: Several analysts and platforms note that forecast earnings are expected to edge down ~5% per year over the next three years and free cash flow doesn’t fully cover the current payout ratio (roughly 68–76%).
A recent piece on The Motley Fool Australia explicitly asked whether that 6.5% yield is a bargain or a trap – highlighting the tension between near‑term income and long‑term capex + commodity risk.
Technical view
Short‑term chart models are mildly constructive:
- StockInvest.us describes WDS.AX as sitting in the middle of a rising short‑term trend channel, with both short‑ and long‑term moving‑average signals pointing to “buy”. StockInvest+1
- Their model expects roughly 10% upside over the next three months, with a 90% probability range between A$25.78 and A$30.31.
- At the same time, MACD signals and a recent pivot‑top suggest some near‑term downside risk, and they flag that the risk/reward for intraday trades isn’t very attractive at current levels.
Technical signals change quickly, but they do line up with the big‑picture story: a cautious uptrend, not a euphoric melt‑up.
The big risks for Woodside Energy stock
Strip the noise away and three main risk clusters jump out.
1. Project delivery vs. megaproject gravity
Scarborough/Pluto 2, Louisiana LNG, Trion, Sangomar and – in the next decade – Greater Sunrise are all multi‑billion‑dollar projects.
- Cost overruns, schedule slippage, or major operational issues at any of these could blow holes in Woodside’s 2032 volume and dividend targets.
- The Pluto 2 strike vote adds an immediate, tangible source of execution risk at one of the central growth assets.
Megaprojects can be fantastic when they work; they’re brutal when they don’t.
2. Commodity prices and LNG market dynamics
Woodside is highly leveraged to:
- Global LNG prices (JKM, TTF), and
- Oil benchmarks (Brent, WTI), via condensate and oil production and oil‑linked LNG contracts.
Q3’s average realised price of US$60/boe already reflects a comedown from the extraordinary LNG and oil prices of 2022–23. If we slide into:
- A prolonged global slowdown,
- A glut of new LNG supply from the U.S. and Qatar, or
- Policy changes that cap prices or volumes,
then many of the bullish valuation models will look optimistic in hindsight.
3. Climate policy, ESG and capital access
From university de‑branding to activist “fossil expansion” lists, Woodside is increasingly central to the climate‑risk narrative in Australia and beyond. TechStock²+1
Future shifts in:
- Carbon pricing,
- Methane regulations,
- Gas reservation policies, or
- Institutional investment mandates,
could undermine LNG project economics or shrink the pool of investors willing to provide equity and debt capital for long‑dated fossil‑fuel projects.
GuruFocus’s Altman Z‑score flag (1.31, technically in the “distress zone”) is a reminder that big dividends + big capex + cyclical prices is a spicy capital‑structure recipe, even if near‑term cash flow looks fine today. GuruFocus
Outlook and what to watch into 2026
Given all of the above, how does the setup look as of 5 December 2025?
Broadly, the market seems to be pricing Woodside as:
- A high‑yield LNG and oil producer trading on a low double‑digit earnings multiple,
- With modest price‑target upside (consensus in the high‑A$20s) and a lot of the total‑return story coming from dividends,
- Backed by visible volume growth out to 2030+ if megaproject execution goes reasonably well.
Key catalysts over the next 12–18 months include:
- Pluto LNG 2 industrial action: whether unions and Woodside reach an agreement without major delays to the 2026 first‑LNG timetable.
- Louisiana LNG progress: further equity sell‑downs, offtake deals (including potential Aramco contracts), and evidence that costs remain under control as construction ramps up.
- Greater Sunrise concept work: clarity on pipeline routing, financing, and whether the 2032–35 first‑LNG window survives contact with engineering reality.
- Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance: scheduled for late January and late February 2026, these will update capex guidance, production targets and dividend policy for the next phase.
- Global LNG and oil prices: the entire growth and dividend story ultimately rests on the world still being willing to pay solid prices for Woodside’s molecules in the 2030s.
For now, Woodside sits where large, complicated energy companies often sit: caught between income‑investor enthusiasm and project‑risk skepticism.
