NEW YORK, Jan 11, 2026, 09:49 EST — Market closed
- Shares of Tri Pointe Homes jumped 8.7% at Friday’s close, beating the gains of most U.S. homebuilders.
- The surge came after the White House announced a $200 billion purchase of mortgage bonds, designed to drive rates lower.
- Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report is the next hurdle for traders, with builders’ earnings season looming just after.
Shares of Tri Pointe Homes jumped 8.7% to close Friday at $35.42, lifted by a broad rally in housing-related stocks. The move came amid speculation that a federal program to purchase mortgage-backed securities might ease borrowing costs. 1
The move is significant because homebuilder demand is more sensitive to monthly payments than to headline home prices. President Donald Trump announced the administration would order a $200 billion purchase of mortgage bonds, with Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte confirming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would carry it out. TD Cowen noted this buying might tighten the spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year Treasury yield, potentially lowering mortgage rates. Still, Brian Jacobsen from Annex Wealth Management cautioned that while the plan could boost demand, it doesn’t address the supply side. 2
For Tri Pointe, investors are caught in a push-pull: lower mortgage rates might lure buyers back, yet rising demand could hold prices firm, curbing the gains in affordability.
Policy news lifted other builders on Friday, with bigger names like Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup also gaining. Investors bet mortgage rates might slide back into a range that sparks volume again. 3
RBC Capital’s Mike Dahl wasn’t buying into the surge. He lowered Tri Pointe’s price target from $37 to $31 and kept a “Sector Perform” rating. Dahl flagged caution through early 2026, citing ongoing affordability issues. He did note a potential boost from repair-and-remodel activity later in the year. (A price target is an analyst’s estimate of where the stock could trade over the next 12 months.) 4
The distance between Friday’s close and RBC’s target highlights just how quickly macro headlines shifted the tape, rather than any new company data. Tri Pointe hasn’t released earnings or guidance in the past two days.
The next big macro event is just around the corner. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will drop December’s CPI figures Tuesday, Jan. 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. This release has the power to move Treasury yields—and with them, mortgage-rate forecasts. 5
Investors will sift through a busy U.S. data slate this week, with retail sales and producer prices in focus for hints on interest rate moves. Homebuilders have been trading on expectations shaped by the affordability crunch expected in 2025. 6
The downside is clear: if the mortgage-bond plan stalls during rollout, or investors push for higher yields regardless, mortgage rates might barely budge. Builder stocks could then lose their policy-driven gains just as fast.
As Monday’s session kicks off, traders will be eyeing if Tri Pointe’s recent move sticks in early trading. They’ll also keep tabs on whether the sector continues to follow rate-sensitive cues, such as the 10-year Treasury yield.
After Tuesday’s inflation data, the focus shifts to earnings season. Tri Pointe is set to release its next quarterly report roughly on Feb. 17, per Zacks. 7
