- Shares Surge on Government Interest: Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE: LAC) stock spiked nearly 70% in one day after reports that the U.S. government may take a 10% stake in the company [1]. The price jumped from around $3 to over $5, hitting its highest levels of the past year amid heavy trading.
- White House Boost for Thacker Pass: The Trump administration is renegotiating a $2.26 billion Energy Department loan for Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project and is seeking an equity stake as part of the deal [2]. Officials call the Nevada mine critical to national security, signaling strong federal support for the project.
- GM Partnership & Offtake: General Motors (GM) invested $625 million for a 38% stake in Thacker Pass, securing rights to all Phase 1 lithium production for 20 years [3]. GM is now Lithium Americas’ largest shareholder (~9.4%) and affirms it is “confident in the project” as a cornerstone of its EV battery supply [4].
- Lithium Market Volatility: Lithium prices remain far below 2022 highs due to oversupply from China, raising short-term concerns [5]. Yet global EV demand is surging – over 20 million EVs are projected to sell in 2025 (~25% of new cars) [6] – pointing to robust long-term lithium needs despite recent price dips.
- Strong Funding & Outlook: With >$500 million cash on hand [7] and a major federal loan in progress, Lithium Americas is funded to advance Thacker Pass, targeting production by 2028. All major permits and lawsuits have been resolved [8]. Analysts maintain a “Buy” rating on LAC (average price target ~$4–7) as the company transitions from development to a strategic U.S. lithium producer [9].
Latest Stock Performance: LAC’s Wild Ride in Late September 2025
Lithium Americas stock went on a roller-coaster in late September 2025. On September 24, shares skyrocketed in pre-market trading after a Reuters report revealed that the U.S. government is considering taking an equity stake in the company [10]. LAC opened around $5.13 (up ~67%) that morning – a dramatic jump from roughly $3 the day before [11]. In after-hours trading the prior evening, the stock had already leapt as high as $5.54 on the news [12]. This marked a sharp reversal from September 23, when LAC had slid nearly 7% amid broader market weakness and uncertainty over its funding (the stock hit a 52-week low of about $2.31 earlier in the week) [13].
Investors piled into LAC on the stake rumors, pushing volume and volatility well above normal levels. By midday Sept 24, the stock was trading around the mid-$5 range, roughly double its price a day prior. This surge propelled LAC to year-to-date highs, a notable feat given it spent much of 2025 languishing near multi-year lows due to lithium price concerns. The optimism spilled over to peers – major lithium producers like Albemarle and emerging developers like Sigma Lithium saw their stocks jump 5%+ in sympathy [14]. Clearly, the market interpreted potential U.S. government investment as very bullish for Lithium Americas and the domestic lithium sector at large.
Such explosive moves underscore LAC’s sensitivity to policy news and market sentiment. Even after the one-day pop, Lithium Americas’ stock remains well below its peak valuations from the EV frenzy of 2021–2022. (For context, the pre-spinoff LAC traded above $30 in late 2021 when lithium prices were soaring.) Today’s ~$5 price still reflects cautious market expectations. But the sudden vote of confidence from Washington has dramatically shifted momentum in the stock, at least for now.
Breaking News: U.S. Government May Take 10% Stake in Lithium Americas
The catalyst for LAC’s surge was a Reuters exclusive on Sept 23 that the Trump administration is in talks to secure up to a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas [15]. This unprecedented move would come as part of renegotiating the terms of a previously approved $2.26 billion Department of Energy (DOE) loan for the company’s flagship Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada [16]. According to Reuters, White House officials want to ensure the U.S. taxpayer benefits from the upside of this strategic project – encapsulated by one official’s quote that “there’s no such thing as free money” when supporting critical mineral development [17].
Thacker Pass is the largest known lithium deposit in the U.S. and is under construction by Lithium Americas in a joint venture with GM. The DOE’s massive loan (originally approved in concept at the end of Trump’s first term and finalized under Biden [18]) is meant to finance roughly two-thirds of the project’s $2.93 billion Phase 1 cost. However, earlier this month, the new administration put a temporary hold on the first loan disbursement, citing concerns about Lithium Americas’ ability to repay amid a slump in lithium prices [19]. Rather than scuttle the loan, officials opted to restructure the deal – seeking an equity stake for the government (up to 10% ownership) and additional guarantees from project partner GM [20] [21].
“Markets can view equity stakes as a leading indicator of favorable ROIC… the incentive for taking equity stakes [is] significantly higher than withdrawing funding,” noted analysts at Jefferies, reacting to the news [22]. In other words, if Washington is willing to buy into LAC, investors take it as a strong sign that the feds are committed to seeing Thacker Pass succeed (rather than pulling support). Indeed, federal involvement in private companies isn’t without precedent – the administration has similarly taken stakes in semiconductor and mining firms (e.g. Intel, MP Materials) that are deemed vital to U.S. supply chains [23].
Lithium Americas’ management quickly responded to the media reports. In a statement on Sept 24, the company confirmed it is “in active discussions” with the DOE’s Loan Programs Office and partner GM about restructuring the loan terms, and that it respects the government’s decision to pursue adjustments [24]. While declining to comment on specifics of ongoing negotiations, Lithium Americas offered to issue the U.S. government warrants for 5–10% of its common shares at no cost as an incentive to close the loan deal, per Reuters’ sources [25]. The company also proposed tweaks to the loan’s amortization schedule (delaying certain repayments) to align with project cash flows, without altering the overall payback period or interest due [26].
Crucially, GM’s role is under review too. The White House wants assurances that General Motors – which is relying on Thacker Pass for a large chunk of its future battery-grade lithium – will indeed buy the mine’s output as planned [27]. (GM currently has the right to 100% of Phase 1 production and a sizable share of Phase 2, but the government seeks a firmer guarantee of offtake commitments [28].) There is even discussion of adjusting GM’s control over certain project aspects in favor of greater federal oversight [29]. For its part, GM reiterated that the DOE loan is “necessary… to commercialize this important national resource” and highlighted that President Trump “strongly supported” Thacker Pass from inception [30]. GM appears fully on-board with the project’s strategic value: “We’re confident in the project, which supports the administration’s goals,” a GM spokesperson said [31].
From a corporate actions standpoint, the emergence of a potential government stake is a game-changer. Lithium Americas has already undergone significant restructuring to facilitate its growth – most notably splitting into two companies in late 2023. The original Lithium Americas Corp separated its South American assets into a new entity (Lithium Argentina, NYSE: LAAC) and retained the Thacker Pass project under the existing LAC ticker [32] [33]. This spin-off, completed in October 2023, was designed to sharpen the focus on U.S. development and made it easier for strategic partners like GM (and now potentially the U.S. government) to invest directly in the North American business. Indeed, upon the split, GM immediately executed a ~$330 million second tranche investment into Lithium Americas (NewCo) [34], becoming a top shareholder in both new companies [35].
On the legal front, Lithium Americas cleared a major hurdle earlier in 2023 when all outstanding lawsuits and appeals against Thacker Pass were resolved or dismissed [36]. Environmental and tribal groups had challenged the mine’s federal permits, but a U.S. appeals court ultimately upheld regulatory approval, allowing construction to proceed unabated. The company noted that those legal resolutions “did not materially impact [its] financial position or construction schedule.” [37] With permitting secure and litigation behind it, LAC entered the latter half of 2025 able to concentrate fully on execution and financing – making the current DOE loan negotiations the last key piece to fall into place.
EV Market Context: Lithium Prices Lull, But Long-Term Demand Roars
This year has illustrated the paradox in lithium markets: soaring long-term demand but a short-term supply glut. Lithium Americas’ fortunes are tied to both trends.
On one hand, electric vehicle adoption is accelerating worldwide, a fundamental tailwind for lithium. In 2024, EV sales topped 17 million globally (about 20% of new cars), and projections exceed 20 million EVs in 2025 – roughly one out of every 4 cars sold [38]. Major auto markets in China and Europe are well ahead in EV penetration, and the U.S. is ramping up thanks to incentives and new model launches. This electrification boom means lithium-ion battery production will keep climbing, driving massive lithium consumption for the foreseeable future. Industry forecasts see lithium demand triple or more by the end of the decade as EV production soars.
Yet in the short term, lithium prices have pulled back sharply from their peak last year. In late 2022, spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China hit an eye-watering ¥500,000+ per ton (~$70,000), fueled by a buying frenzy. But in 2023, new supply (particularly from Chinese refiners and Australian mines) flooded the market just as EV growth in China momentarily cooled. The result: prices plunged over 70% from the highs. As of September 2025, lithium carbonate in China trades around ¥74,000/ton (~$10,000) [39] – roughly flat year-over-year, and a far cry from the previous boom. “Low lithium prices [due to] Chinese overproduction” have been a point of concern for lenders and investors [40]. Indeed, the U.S. government’s hesitancy on LAC’s loan stems from exactly this pricing downturn, which could pressure the project’s early revenues.
However, most experts view the glut as temporary. EV demand is still on a steep rise, and high-cost producers are feeling the squeeze. Many analysts expect lithium to rebound from current levels once the excess inventory is absorbed. Notably, China’s dominance in lithium processing remains a geopolitical worry: China refines ~75% of the world’s lithium into battery-grade chemicals [41], even though it holds only a fraction of raw reserves. This imbalance – where the West depends on China for refined lithium – is precisely why the U.S. (under both Biden and Trump administrations) has made domestic projects like Thacker Pass a strategic priority [42]. By establishing a major lithium source and refining capability on U.S. soil, Lithium Americas could help cut reliance on Chinese supply chainsin the EV sector.
In short, the market context for Lithium Americas in 2025 is a mix of near-term caution and long-term optimism. Soft prices have created speed bumps (and a bargaining opportunity for the government), but the broader EV revolution keeps the investment thesis for lithium intact. As EV sales continue breaking records and nations jockey for secure battery material supplies, a U.S.-based lithium mine of Thacker Pass’s scale is arguably priceless – which is exactly why we see government intervention to ensure it comes to fruition.
Analyst & Expert Views: Commentary on LAC’s Prospects
Wall Street analysts and industry experts have been weighing in on Lithium Americas’ recent developments. The consensus remains guardedly optimistic. LAC carries a “Moderate Buy” rating from analysts, though target prices have fluctuated alongside lithium’s outlook. Prior to the latest news, eight analysts tracked by MarketBeat gave LAC an average 12-month price target of roughly $4.15 (with a range of $2.50 up to $5.00) – implying modest upside from the pre-spike trading levels [43]. Now, with the stock suddenly around $5, the market is essentially catching up to earlier price targets.
Some analysts have already adjusted their calls in light of the DOE loan saga. Jefferies, for example, trimmed its price target from $8 to $7 this week, citing the uncertainty around government financing terms, but importantly maintained a Buy rating [44]. Jefferies’ team actually sees the government stake proposal as a net positive, arguing it signals confidence that Thacker Pass will generate solid returns [45]. They note that an equity injection is far preferable to the alternative (withdrawing the loan), as it aligns the feds with the company’s success. This perspective seemed validated by the market’s reaction – the stock jump suggests investors agree that having Uncle Sam as a stakeholder de-risks the project and could even facilitate future favorable policies.
Other commentators highlight Lithium Americas’ unique position in the industry. “When it opens in 2028, [Thacker Pass] is expected to become the Western Hemisphere’s largest source of lithium,” Reuters observed [46]. That scale – 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year in Phase 1, enough for ~800,000 EVs annually [47] – would make LAC a major player overnight, rivaling established producers. It’s a rare pure-play on U.S. lithium at a time when automakers and governments are scrambling for domestic supply. As such, some analysts see significant strategic value not yet reflected in the share price. The flip side, as bears would point out, is that LAC is still a pre-revenue developer facing a multi-year construction project in a volatile commodity market – not a sure bet by any means.
Industry experts also underscore the broader significance of LAC’s project. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading EV supply chain research firm, has often noted that North America’s lithium gap is a critical vulnerability. The fact that high-level U.S. officials are directly negotiating stakes in a lithium mine underscores that point. “President Trump supports this project. He wants it to succeed and also be fair to taxpayers,” one White House official told Reuters [48]. That statement encapsulates the political imperative behind Lithium Americas: it must succeed, both as a commercial venture and as a matter of national interest. Such attention is a double-edged sword – it brings needed support (loans, permits, investment) but also scrutiny and expectations.
For now, the analyst mood is cautiously positive. They’ll be watching the final outcome of the DOE loan talks and any dilution from a government equity stake. But assuming the financing gets sorted, many see Lithium Americas as a potential “best-in-class” lithium developer given its Tier-1 asset and strong partners. As one investment research note quipped, the U.S. government doesn’t try to buy 10% of your company if you’re not sitting on something big.
Partnerships, EV Tie-Ins & Strategic Moves
Lithium Americas has been actively building partnerships to ensure its lithium actually reaches the EV market. The headline alliance is with General Motors, which in January 2023 agreed to invest up to $650 million in the Thacker Pass project – the largest-ever investment by an automaker into a mine. In exchange, GM secured a long-term supply agreement to feed its Ultium battery plants. As of 2025, GM’s total funding of $625 million has given it a 38% project interest (through a joint venture) [49] and about 9% equity ownership of Lithium Americas (post-separation) [50]. GM’s stake not only brings capital but also credibility and a guaranteed customer for Thacker Pass’s first decade of output. It’s a symbiotic deal: GM needs the lithium for its EV ambitions, and Lithium Americas needs a deep-pocketed partner. The automaker’s presence likely reassures regulators and investors alike that the mine’s product will have a ready home in U.S. factories.
What about Tesla and others? So far, no direct partnership with Tesla (or Ford, etc.) has been announced. Tesla tends to secure materials via its own supply contracts or in-house projects – for instance, Elon Musk’s company is building a large lithium refinery in Texas, investing $365 million to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide by 2024 [51]. Musk has famously called lithium “the new oil” and hinted that Tesla might need to get into mining if supplies remained tight [52]. This hints at the strategic value of assets like Thacker Pass. While Tesla has not publicly linked with Lithium Americas, industry watchers wouldn’t be surprised if, down the line, Tesla or other EV manufacturers seek offtake agreements once LAC’s mine is operational. The scale of Thacker Pass could potentially supply multiple automakers’ battery needs. For now, though, General Motors enjoys first rights to Phase 1 production, and any Tesla involvement remains speculative.
Lithium Americas has also secured funding partnerships beyond GM. Notably, in April 2025 the company closed a $220 million investment from Orion Resource Partners, a mining-focused finance firm [53]. This deal included $195 million in convertible notes and a $25 million revenue-sharing agreement (stream) in exchange for future lithium output [54]. Such financing arrangements, while less flashy than a GM or Tesla deal, are crucial to bridging the capital gap. They underscore that a variety of stakeholders – automakers, government, resource funds – are willing to back Lithium Americas in order to get this strategic project across the finish line.
It’s also worth noting the broader industry collaboration context. The Thacker Pass project had originally been advanced in partnership with a smaller lithium tech company (ORIGINAL Lithium Americas had some technology tie-ups), and internationally Lithium Americas had joint ventures in Argentina with Chinese firm Ganfeng Lithium. Since the 2023 corporate split, the Argentine assets/joint ventures are under Lithium Argentina (LAAC), leaving the U.S. business free of direct Chinese partnership. This was likely deliberate, aligning the U.S. arm with American interests (GM, DOE) while the Argentina arm continues collaborating with Ganfeng on the Caucharí-Olaroz brine project. The separation means Lithium Americas (LAC) is now a pure-play on North American lithium development – a positioning that appeals to investors who prioritize “local supply chain” companies in the EV space.
Going forward, we may see additional partnerships or offtake deals as Phase 2 of Thacker Pass (an expansion to 80,000 tonnes/year) comes into focus. Other automakers, battery makers, or even tech companies could strike agreements to secure a slice of that future production. The U.S. government’s deeper involvement might also facilitate connections – for example, by incentivizing federal fleet electrification contracts or additional loans for downstream processing tied to LAC’s output. In sum, Lithium Americas has built a strong network of strategic relationships, with GM at the core, and more could be on the horizon as the EV ecosystem hungry for lithium continues to expand.
Financial Health and Outlook
From a financial perspective, Lithium Americas is still in its investment phase – the company is spending heavily to build Thacker Pass and has yet to generate revenue. The most recent earnings report (Q2 2025) showed a net loss of $75 million for the quarter, nearly double the loss a year earlier [55]. This widening loss is expected for a pre-production company ramping up construction. Importantly, Lithium Americas’ balance sheet is bolstered by the major investments discussed: as of June 30, 2025, the company had over $509 million in cash and equivalents [56], thanks to the infusion from GM, the Orion funding, and earlier equity raises. This war chest, combined with the anticipated $2+ billion low-interest DOE loan, should cover the bulk of the ~$3 billion Phase 1 capex. In fact, management confirmed in Q2 that the Final Investment Decision (FID) was made in April 2025 to fully construct Phase 1, and spending is well underway [57].
The Thacker Pass construction timeline is ambitious but on track. The company aims to achieve mechanical completion of Phase 1 by late 2027, with lithium production ramping up in 2028 [58] [59]. As of mid-2025, over 300 workers were on site, concrete foundations were being laid for the processing plant, and long-lead equipment fabrication had begun [60] [61]. By year-end 2025, the workforce is expected to more than triple (to ~1,000) as construction enters peak activity [62]. All key engineering and procurement is progressing in line with schedules [63]. In short, LAC is deploying its capital to de-risk the project execution – front-loading detailed engineering (70% complete, heading to 90% by year-end [64]) and even building an on-site “worker hub” housing facility to accommodate the influx of labor [65].
One financial consideration is the potential dilution or ownership change if the U.S. government takes an equity stake. Based on LAC’s ~$750 million market cap before the news [66], a 10% stake could equate to roughly $75 million in value – though it’s not yet clear if this would be via newly issued shares (dilutive but injecting cash) or some warrant structure (as offered by the company [67]). Investors generally seem unconcerned by this prospect; the stock’s positive reaction suggests they view government equity as a stamp of approval rather than a dilution red flag. Still, it’s a factor to watch as negotiations solidify.
Liquidity and funding appear sufficient at this stage. Beyond the DOE loan (which carries a 24-year term at U.S. Treasury rates [68]), Lithium Americas also established an at-the-market equity program in May 2025 to raise additional funds if needed by selling shares gradually [69]. The company is ensuring it has multiple financing levers to pull, which is prudent given the scale of investment required. With Phase 1 financed, any future expansions (Phase 2 or downstream processing plants) could potentially be funded out of project cash flows – meaning once Lithium Americas begins production, it could reduce its reliance on external capital.
The outlook for Lithium Americas is increasingly promising but not without challenges. If all goes to plan, by 2028 LAC will transform from a development-stage company to one of the top lithium producers in the Americas, generating significant revenue from lithium sales to GM and possibly others. Profitability will depend on lithium market prices at that time; even with cost overruns contingencies, the project’s economics were highly attractive at 2022’s sky-high prices, but are tighter at today’s lower prices. The federal loan’s generous terms (long-term, low interest) help a great deal in sustaining margins through price cycles. And the company has been focusing on cost control – CEO Jonathan Evans noted they are working to “de-risk both the project schedule and capital costs” and mitigate any impacts from tariffs or trade issues on their supply chain [70]. This suggests a keen eye on avoiding budget blowouts.
In the near term, investors can expect regular milestones: updates on construction progress, any resolution on the DOE loan/equity stake, and eventually, news of commissioning equipment by 2027. The next major catalyst could be the official loan renegotiation outcome – if a new agreement is reached and announced, it will remove the last cloud of uncertainty over LAC’s funding. Additionally, earnings reports (even while pre-revenue) will shed light on cash burn and capital spending rates; for example, in Q2 the company capitalized $125 million of construction costs, bringing total construction spend to $574 million as of mid-year [71]. This indicates roughly 20% of Phase 1’s budget is already invested.
Finally, macro factors like EV policy and lithium prices will continue to influence sentiment. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other EV incentives are boosting domestic mineral projects through tax credits and guaranteed offtake demand for U.S.-sourced battery materials. Lithium Americas stands to benefit from this pro-EV industrial policy climate. Conversely, any sustained lithium oversupply or a sharp recession in auto sales could weigh on the stock again. It’s a long road to 2028, but the pieces are falling into place for Lithium Americas.
Bottom Line: As of September 24, 2025, Lithium Americas Corp. finds itself at the nexus of powerful trends – the EV revolution, geopolitics, and resource finance. The stock’s recent eruption on news of a U.S. government stake underscores how strategically important this company has become. With construction humming at Thacker Pass, big-name partners secured, and supportive tailwinds from Washington, LAC is evolving from a speculative lithium play into a potential cornerstone of America’s clean energy supply chain. Investors should brace for continued volatility, but if Lithium Americas delivers on its promise, it could be charging forward just as the world’s demand for lithium hits a new gear [72] [73].
Sources: Recent news from Reuters, Bloomberg, and Yahoo Finance; Lithium Americas press releases and financial filings; expert analysis from industry outlets. Key references include Reuters coverage of the U.S. stake discussions [74] [75], Lithium Americas’ Q2 2025 report [76] [77], and market data on lithium prices and EV sales [78] [79].
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