Merck Stock (MRK) in November 2025: Price, Latest News, Forecasts and Analyst Outlook

Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is ending November 2025 on a strong note. A flurry of regulatory wins for cancer drug Keytruda, positive mid‑stage data for heart drug Winrevair, and fresh deal‑making have pushed the share price close to its 52‑week high and reignited debate about the stock’s upside as it heads toward the Keytruda patent cliff later this decade.

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at Merck’s stock price, the latest company developments, and what Wall Street and various forecasting models are projecting from here, as of 30 November 2025.

Merck stock price today: MRK near its 52‑week high

As of the close on Friday, 28 November 2025 (the last trading day before November 30):

• Merck & Co. (MRK) closed at $104.83 per share.  ^[1]
• The 52‑week range is roughly $73.31–$105.84, putting the current price within about 1% of the recent high.  ^[2]
• Over the past year, Merck has delivered a total return of about 7%, and it’s up around 8–9% year‑to‑date in 2025, including dividends.  ^[3]

The biggest story in November has been the sharp rally: MRK traded in the mid‑$80s at the start of the month and has surged into the mid‑$100s as a cluster of positive headlines hit in oncology and cardiovascular medicine. Historical data show the stock climbing from the low‑ to mid‑$80s in early November to around $105 by late November.  ^[4]

The stock also became a key driver of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in late November. MarketWatch data show Merck among the top contributors to the Dow’s 142‑point gain on 24 November and its 638‑point rally on 25 November, with MRK up roughly 3.8–4.3% on those days.  ^[5]

What’s driving Merck stock in late November 2025?

1. New FDA approval: Keytruda & Keytruda QLEX + Padcev in bladder cancer

On 21 November 2025, the U.S. FDA approved:

• KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) and
• KEYTRUDA QLEX™ (a subcutaneous formulation of pembrolizumab with hyaluronidase)

each combined with Astellas/Seagen’s Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin) as perioperative treatment (before and after surgery) for adults with muscle‑invasive bladder cancer who are ineligible for cisplatin‑based chemotherapy.  ^[6]

Merck notes that this represents the first PD‑1 inhibitor plus antibody‑drug conjugate (ADC) regimen for this patient group. Clinically, it expands Keytruda’s footprint in urologic oncology; strategically, it:

• Deepens Merck’s partnership footprint with Astellas/Seagen.
• Shows how Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX can be leveraged alongside ADCs, a modality expected to be a major growth area in oncology.

For investors, this approval supports continued Keytruda revenue growth ahead of its U.S. patent expiry in 2028 and showcases the value of the new subcutaneous Keytruda format.

2. European Commission OKs subcutaneous Keytruda for all adult indications

On 19 November 2025, the European Commission approved subcutaneous Keytruda for all adult indications in which the IV form is already approved in the EU.  ^[7]

Key points for the stock:

• Merck highlights that this is the first subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor available in Europe and can be administered by a healthcare professional in about one minute.  ^[8]
• A more convenient injection option may increase physician and patient preference for Keytruda in crowded oncology markets.
• Subcutaneous delivery can support pricing power and lifecycle management as biosimilar competition approaches.

This helps explain part of the November re‑rating: investors are seeing tangible steps to extend Keytruda’s franchiseand defend market share even as competition looms later in the decade.

3. Winrevair’s Phase 2 win: the “post‑Keytruda era” bridge?

A major November catalyst was new data for WINREVAIR™ (sotatercept‑csrk), Merck’s cardiovascular drug originally approved in 2024 for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).

In mid‑November, Merck announced that the Phase 2 CADENCE trial in patients with combined post‑ and precapillary pulmonary hypertension (CpcPH) due to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) met its primary endpoint. The drug produced a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance versus placebo.  ^[9]

Merck plans to move Winrevair into Phase 3 development for this broader heart‑failure‑related indication.  ^[10]

Financially, this matters because:

• Analysts now see Winrevair as a potential multi‑billion‑dollar franchise, not just a niche PAH drug.
• A Barron’s report notes that some sell‑side estimates have lifted projected 2030 Winrevair sales to above $5.5 billion, up from around $400 million in prior forecasts.  ^[11]
• BioPharma Dive reports that Merck considers Winrevair one of roughly 20 “growth drivers” that could collectively offset anticipated Keytruda declines, with many of them having $1+ billion annual sales potential and a combined opportunity estimated above $50 billion.  ^[12]

Unsurprisingly, Merck shares jumped more than 3% on the Winrevair news and have continued to climb, helping power the stock’s November run.  ^[13]

4. $700 million Blackstone funding for a new ADC

On 4 November 2025, Merck announced a $700 million funding agreement with Blackstone Life Sciences to support development of sac‑TMT, an experimental antibody‑drug conjugate targeting Trop‑2 (trophoblast cell‑surface antigen 2) expressed on various tumors.  ^[14]

Key details:

• Merck retains full control over development, manufacturing and commercialization.
• Blackstone receives low‑ to mid‑single‑digit royalties if the drug is approved.
• Sac‑TMT is being co‑developed under an exclusive license with Sichuan Kelun‑Biotech.  ^[15]

For shareholders, the deal:

• Spreads late‑stage development risk for an important ADC candidate.
• Signals Merck’s willingness to use creative funding structures to expand its oncology pipeline while maintaining balance‑sheet flexibility.

5. $9.2 billion acquisition of flu‑prevention biotech Cidara

Merck also made headlines in November by agreeing to buy Cidara Therapeutics in a deal valued at around $9.2 billion.  ^[16]

From publicly available coverage:

• Cidara’s lead asset, CD388, is a long‑acting antiviral in Phase 3 trials designed to protect against the two most common influenza strains.
• The target market includes immunosuppressed patients, those who can’t receive standard vaccines, and older adults, potentially representing tens of millions of people in the U.S. alone.  ^[17]
• The high premium (Cidara stock reportedly more than doubled on the news) underscores how strategically important respiratory and infectious‑disease prevention has become for big pharma.

For Merck, the deal:

• Adds a new vaccine‑adjacent growth driver outside oncology.
• Diversifies revenue heading into the late 2020s, which is crucial as Keytruda approaches patent expiry.

6. Q3 2025 earnings: solid beat and robust margins

Merck reported Q3 2025 earnings on 30 October 2025, beating Wall Street expectations:

• EPS: $2.58 vs. $2.36 consensus.
• Revenue: $17.28 billion vs. $17.0 billion expected, up about 3.7% year over year.
• Return on equity: ~41%.
• Net margin: ~25.8%.  ^[18]

Trefis and other analysts point out that:

• Keytruda remains the main growth engine, with Q3 sales estimated up around 10% to roughly $8.1 billion, helped by the subcutaneous formulation and new combinations like the Padcev regimen.  ^[19]
• Merck’s operating margin near 35% and net margin close to 30% compare favorably with the broader market, where typical net margins are closer to the low teens.  ^[20]

Merck’s own guidance calls for full‑year 2025 EPS of about $8.93–$8.98, while some analysts (e.g., Leerink Partners) now model FY 2025 EPS around $9.07, slightly above the ~$9.01 consensus.  ^[21]

These results and guidance helped underpin the stock’s November rally and support the view that Merck is more than just Keytruda.

7. Upcoming data and oncology updates

Beyond immediate catalysts, Merck has laid out a dense data calendar:

• At the ASH 2025 hematology meeting, Merck plans to present new data from its hematology pipeline and novel therapeutic approaches, underscoring efforts to build beyond solid tumors.  ^[22]
• At ESMO 2025, Merck highlighted progress in new tumor types and earlier‑stage disease, including the KEYNOTE‑B96 trial in ovarian cancer, where progression‑free and overall survival endpoints have already been met in key subgroups and an FDA decision is expected in early 2026.  ^[23]

For investors, this means a steady stream of potential catalysts over the next 12–18 months.

Analyst ratings and 12‑month MRK stock forecasts

Consensus views from Wall Street

Different platforms compile slightly different analyst sets, but they point to a broadly constructive, though not euphoric, view:

• StockAnalysis reports 14 analysts with a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average 12‑month price target of about $108.21, implying roughly 3% upside from around $104–105. The range spans $85–$125.  ^[24]
• TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” rating from 14 analysts, with an average target around $104–105, a high of $139 and a low of $82. Given the current price near $104–105, that implies essentially no expected upside on average, but a wide dispersion of views.  ^[25]
• MarketBeat highlights a more cautious “Hold” consensus with an average target in the low‑$100s; the service also notes the Q3 beat and guidance, as well as insider selling and institutional ownership near 76%.  ^[26]

In short, traditional 12‑month targets cluster around today’s price, reflecting the stock’s big move over the past few weeks and the balance between high quality fundamentals and looming Keytruda risk.

Valuation and quality metrics

Trefis’s late‑November analysis characterizes Merck as “fairly priced”:

• MRK trades at roughly 13–14× earnings, versus an S&P 500 P/E ratio in the low‑20s.
• Price‑to‑sales sits around 4.1×, somewhat above the index but typical for a high‑margin pharma leader.  ^[27]
• Merck’s operating margin near 35%, net margin near 30%, and relatively modest debt‑to‑equity around the mid‑teens stand out positively versus the broader market.  ^[28]

Zacks, in a separate piece, recently flagged Merck as a “strong value stock”, emphasizing its valuation metrics and favorable earnings revisions.  ^[29]

Quant and long‑term Merck stock forecasts

Alongside sell‑side targets, a number of quantitative and algorithm‑based forecasts for MRK are circulating. These shouldn’t be treated as predictions in the literal sense, but they do show how various models see the risk/reward.

Short‑term model outlooks

• PandaForecast estimates a target price around $98.67 for 30 November 2025, implying modest downside from current levels and “negative dynamics” in the very near term, albeit within a small volatility band.  ^[30]

This underlines that after a rapid run‑up, some models expect mean reversion rather than a straight move higher.

2027 and beyond

• A TIKR “guided valuation” scenario suggests MRK could trade near $111 by 2027, implying about 28% total upside over roughly two years from recent levels (around 12% annualized) if earnings track consensus estimates.  ^[31]
• StockScan’s algorithmic forecast is more aggressive: it projects an average MRK price of about $153 in 2027, with a high around $167 and a low around $139, representing roughly 46% upside from $104.83. Further out, the tool models potential average prices near $190–$200 by 2029–2030, equivalent to ~80–90% upside if those scenarios play out.  ^[32]
• A recent Motley Fool analysis asks whether $10,000 invested in Merck today could become $50,000 by 2030, noting both the power of Keytruda‑driven cash flows and the risk that biosimilar competition after 2028 could erode growth unless the pipeline fully delivers.  ^[33]

These long‑term projections depend heavily on:

• How quickly Keytruda revenue decays post‑patent.
• Uptake of Winrevair across multiple indications.
• The success of Merck’s ADC programs, vaccines, and hematology pipeline.

Investors should treat these model outputs as scenarios, not guarantees.

Dividend, returns and shareholder profile

Merck continues to appeal to income‑oriented investors:

• The forward dividend yield is around 3.4%, based on the current share price and latest annualized payout.  ^[34]
• Over the last five years, Merck has delivered a total return of roughly 60%, combining price appreciation and reinvested dividends.  ^[35]

Given its large market cap (about $260 billion), strong cash generation and history of dividend increases, MRK is widely held in dividend and blue‑chip portfolios, as well as health‑care sector ETFs.

Key opportunities for Merck stock

Here are the main bullish drivers investors are watching:

1. Winrevair as a cardiovascular growth engine
   • Already approved for PAH; now showing promising Phase 2 data in HFpEF‑related CpcPH, with Phase 3 plans in motion.  ^[36]
   • Consensus forecasts now see a multi‑billion‑dollar peak sales opportunity, potentially exceeding $5.5–8+ billion annually when including non‑PAH indications.  ^[37]
2. Keytruda franchise expansion and lifecycle management
   • New perioperative bladder cancer approval with Padcev adds to Keytruda’s massive oncology footprint.  ^[38]
   • Subcutaneous Keytruda and Keytruda QLEX, now approved in both the U.S. and EU, can protect share and improve convenience for patients and providers.  ^[39]
3. ADC and oncology pipeline depth
   • Sac‑TMT funding from Blackstone reduces development risk for a high‑potential Trop‑2 ADC.  ^[40]
   • Merck’s late‑stage pipeline update highlights dozens of oncology, immunology and hematology programs, including ADCs and novel combinations designed to sustain growth into the 2030s.  ^[41]
4. Strategic M&A and partnerships
   • The Cidara deal adds a long‑acting flu‑prevention asset with a potentially large high‑risk patient market.  ^[42]
   • Previous acquisitions (such as Acceleron for Winrevair) have already started to pay off with meaningful new products.  ^[43]
5. Strong balance sheet and profitability
   • Net margins around 25–30%, ROE above 40%, and manageable leverage give Merck ample room to fund R&D, M&A and shareholder returns simultaneously.  ^[44]

Main risks and what to watch

On the other side, here are the key concerns analysts repeatedly flag:

1. Keytruda 2028 patent cliff
   • Keytruda still accounts for a very large share of Merck’s pharmaceutical sales, and U.S. patent expiry in 2028 will open the door to PD‑1 biosimilars.  ^[45]
   • If growth drivers like Winrevair, ADCs, and new oncology indications underperform, revenue and earnings growth could slow sharply.
2. Clinical and regulatory risk
   • High‑profile late‑stage programs (e.g., additional Winrevair indications, new ADCs) could fail or face safety issues, which would hit sentiment and future sales expectations.  ^[46]
3. Pricing and policy pressures
   • U.S. and international drug‑pricing reforms, including Medicare price negotiations, remain a structural headwind for all large pharma companies.
4. Valuation after the rally
   • With MRK close to its 52‑week high and near or slightly above many 12‑month price targets, some analysts see limited short‑term upside unless new data or deals materially change the story.  ^[47]

What about the other Merck? (Merck KGaA, Germany)

Investors searching for “Merck stock” should remember there are two companies:

1. Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) — U.S.‑based pharmaceutical giant covered throughout this article.
2. Merck KGaA (XETRA: MRK) — German science and technology group spanning healthcare, life science and electronics.

For Merck KGaA:

• Recent German coverage shows the stock trading around €116, down roughly 24% from its 52‑week high of €151.84, with a 52‑week low near €100.70.  ^[48]
• Q3 2025 results showed adjusted EBITDA up 3.1% year‑over‑year to €1.67 billion and revenue up 1% to €5.32 billion, modestly ahead of expectations. The company maintained full‑year EBITDA guidance of €6.0–€6.2 billion.  ^[49]

While both companies share a historical connection and a similar name, their business mixes, geographies and stock drivers are quite different, so investors should be clear which “Merck” they’re analyzing or trading.

Bottom line: How to think about Merck stock going into 2026

As of 30 November 2025, the Merck & Co. story can be summarized like this:

• Price action: MRK has rallied hard in November and now trades near its 52‑week high around $105.  ^[50]
• Fundamentals: Q3 2025 results showed healthy growth, strong margins and rising EPS expectations, with a well‑funded pipeline and a solid balance sheet.  ^[51]
• Pipeline & deals: New Keytruda approvals, the promising Winrevair data, the Blackstone ADC deal and the Cidara acquisition collectively strengthen the post‑Keytruda growth runway.  ^[52]
• Valuation: Wall Street 12‑month targets mostly sit in the low‑ to mid‑$100s, suggesting MRK is roughly fairly valued on a one‑year view, although long‑term models see meaningful upside if growth drivers deliver.  ^[53]

For investors and traders, the key questions going into 2026 are:

1. Can Winrevair and the broader growth portfolio realistically offset Keytruda’s eventual decline?
2. Will additional oncology and hematology data at ASH, ESMO and other meetings support further multiple expansion?  ^[54]
3. Does the stock’s current price already discount these positives, or is there still a margin of safety given Merck’s quality and dividend?

As always, this overview is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering buying or selling Merck stock should carefully evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.

References

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