US stock market trading on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, is all about one thing: the Federal Reserve. After a quiet, slightly negative session on Tuesday that left the S&P 500 just shy of its record high, index futures are drifting around the flat line as investors brace for the Fed’s final interest-rate decision of 2025. [1]
Markets have largely priced in a quarter‑point rate cut, but the real story is what comes next: how many cuts, if any, the Fed signals for 2026—and how Chair Jerome Powell frames that path in his press conference. That uncertainty is keeping the United States stock market today in “wait-and-see” mode, even as big themes like artificial intelligence, silver’s record‑breaking rally and a handful of high‑profile earnings (notably Oracle) drive stock-specific moves. [2]
US stock market today: flat futures, mixed mood and indexes near records
On Tuesday, all three major US benchmarks barely budgeted as Wall Street effectively hit pause ahead of the Fed decision. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 6,840.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% (roughly 179 points) to 47,560.29, while the Nasdaq Composite inched 0.1% higher. The small‑cap Russell 2000 added 0.2%. [3]
Despite that slight pullback, the S&P 500 remains close to its all‑time high set in October, and the Russell 2000 recently hit a record—evidence that risk appetite is still alive even after a powerful 2025 rally. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up more than 16%, the Nasdaq over 22%, and the Dow nearly 12%, while small caps have gained about 13%. [4]
Futures signal a cautious open
Early on Wednesday, stock index futures are sending a mixed but subdued signal:
- Dow Jones futures are slightly in the red.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are hovering around flat, oscillating between small gains and losses as traders react to every new Fed headline. [5]
Multiple live market blogs from Barron’s, MarketWatch, the Wall Street Journal and others show US futures moving in a tight range, reflecting how fully the baseline scenario—another 25‑basis‑point cut—is embedded in expectations. [6]
Why Tuesday felt heavy even with tiny moves
Below the surface, Tuesday’s minor decline masked some notable cross‑currents:
- JPMorgan Chase weighed heavily on the Dow after executives flagged that expenses could rise about 9% next year, sending the stock down around 4.7%. [7]
- Rising Treasury yields , after job-openings data surprised on the upside, kept growth stocks in check and reminded investors that even in a cutting cycle, long-term borrowing costs can stay sticky. [8]
Put together, the setup for the United States stock market today is one of cautious positioning: indexes just below records, futures subdued, and traders unwilling to place big directional bets until Powell speaks. [9]
Fed day: a widely expected cut, but an unusually uncertain path
Today’s Fed decision is widely expected to deliver a 25‑basis‑point cut , taking the federal funds target range from 3.75%–4.00% down to 3.50%–3.75%. [10]
What markets have priced in
- CME FedWatch–style probabilities and futures markets put the odds of a cut around 85–90% , based on recent readings collated by Morningstar, Reuters and various derivatives desks. [11]
- Fed funds futures suggest little change in early 2026 , with the forward curve implying only one or two further cuts that year—far fewer than at earlier points in 2025. [12]
Why this cut may be “hawkish”
Several pieces of analysis today frame the likely move as a “hawkish rate cut” :
- A number of strategists expect the Fed to cut but simultaneously raise the bar for further easing , stressing that sticky core inflation around the high‑2% area leaves little room for aggressive cuts. [13]
- Invesco and Morningstar commentaries note that while rate cuts can support equities, history shows returns are often choppy immediately after the first cuts, especially if the Fed is reacting to late‑cycle risks. [14]
Complicating things further, a recent US government shutdown delayed key economic data releases , forcing policymakers to rely on partial information about the labor market and inflation. Reuters reports that Fed officials are essentially flying with “patchy radar,” heightening disagreement inside the committee over the appropriate pace of easing. [15]
A divided Fed and an uncertain chair
The Wall Street Journal and other outlets describe an unusually divided Fed , with clear factions worried either about lingering inflation or about an eventual cooldown in jobs. [16]
At the same time, markets are watching the political backdrop closely:
- Reports suggest Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, while other coverage highlights Governor Christopher Waller as a serious contender. [17]
- Any shift that weakens perceived Fed independence could influence how investors price longer‑term inflation and risk premiums. [18]
For today, traders will dissect three things in rapid succession:
- The headline rate decision ,
- The “dot plot” and economic projections , and
- Powell’s press conference tone .
Small changes in any of these could quickly move the US stock market today from calm to volatile. [19]
Big movers to watch: AI giants, Oracle earnings and consumer names
Beyond the macro, a cluster of stock‑specific stories is shaping sentiment in the United States stock market today.
AI and Nvidia stay at the center of the story
Artificial intelligence remains the market’s favorite—and most hotly debated—theme.
- Nvidia has been front and center after President Donald Trump approved the sale of high‑end H200 AI chips to selected “approved” customers in China, in exchange for a 25% cut of those sales for the US government. Nvidia initially popped roughly 2% on the news but ultimately closed Tuesday modestly lower, around –0.3%, as traders weighed policy risk against renewed China access. [20]
- Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable public company , with a market cap around $4.5 trillion, making every policy headline on export controls and data-center spending a market-moving event in its own right. [21]
- Reuters also reports that Nvidia has developed location-verification technology to help track where its chips are actually used, underscoring regulators’ focus on preventing smuggling and sanction evasion. [22]
More broadly, a wave of AI infrastructure investment—by hyperscalers and chipmakers alike—is shaping earnings expectations and capital-expenditure plans well into 2026, a dynamic that matters not just for tech but for industrials, utilities and commodity producers tied into the AI build-out. [23]
Oracle’s earnings: a high‑stakes test of the AI cloud story
Oracle (ORCL) is one of today’s most closely watched individual stocks.
- The company is due to report quarterly earnings after the bell, and the options market is pricing a sizable post‑earnings move, with traders braced for another verdict on the AI‑cloud theme. [24]
- Oracle has pinned a big part of its growth narrative on massive AI infrastructure spending, including a huge, debt‑fuelled data‑center build and a headline‑grabbing multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar contract with OpenAI. [25]
- Analysts expect robust cloud-infrastructure revenue growth, but recent skepticism over the sustainability and profitability of these AI deals has pushed Oracle shares down roughly a third from their peak, and about 37% below their September highs. [26]
Today’s report is effectively a stress test of the AI spending boom : if Oracle can show healthier margins, more diversified customers beyond OpenAI and a clearer financing plan for its data-center ambitions, that could reassure investors across the AI ecosystem. A disappointment, on the other hand, would reinforce growing fears of an “AI bubble” in infrastructure. [27]
GameStop, Cracker Barrel and old‑school consumer names
Away from mega‑cap tech, a handful of more traditional names are also in focus:
- A Wall Street Journal “stocks to watch” list for Wednesday highlights GameStop , Cracker Barrel and Aegon alongside Oracle. [28]
- GameStop is under pressure after weak revenue trends and corporate actions, including a special dividend, stirred volatility and led to a more than 6% slide in recent sessions. [29]
- Cracker Barrel has tumbled about 8% after cutting its annual revenue forecast, still dealing with fallout from a controversial rebranding push that alienated some core customers. [30]
These stories illustrate a key 2025 theme: while indexes are near records, the rally is uneven , with AI-linked winners on one side and more traditional consumer brands struggling to reignite growth on the other. [31]
Bonds, dollars and commodities: silver steals the spotlight
The US stock market today is also reacting to big moves in other asset classes.
Bonds and the dollar
- Treasury yields ticked higher on Tuesday after job-openings data came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the idea that the Fed can afford to move cautiously even as it cuts. [32]
- By Wednesday, the US dollar index had eased slightly from recent highs, with Barron’s noting some softness ahead of the Fed decision, while the Japanese yen edged higher after a three-day slide. [33]
Gold steady, silver surges past $60
Commodities, especially precious metals, are flashing a slightly different message:
- Gold is roughly flat to slightly lower as traders wait for clearer guidance on the rate path. [34]
- Silver is the real headline: prices have extended a powerful rally to fresh records above $60 per ounce , with some feeds citing intraday highs near $61.50 as investors bet on lower real yields, tight supply and ongoing demand from solar and AI‑related electronics. [35]
Historically, big moves in silver during Fed weeks can signal increased speculation and hedging around the broader interest-rate narrative, and Wednesday looks no different. [36]
What today’s forecasts and analyzes say about 2026
Across banks, asset managers and research platforms, today’s commentary shares a common theme: this is a high-risk moment in what remains, so far, a bull market.
“High‑risk bull market” and narrow leadership
A widely circulated Barchart column cites veteran strategist Bob Doll describing the current environment as a “high-risk bull market” — a phrase that has quickly made the rounds on Wall Street. [37]
Key concerns he and others highlight:
- The rally has been narrowly led by AI‑linked megacaps , leaving many other stocks lagging. [38]
- Inflation, while off its peak, is still uncomfortably high for households , and some labor indicators show early signs of softening—raising the risk that the next downturn could be sharper if policy missteps occur. [39]
- Long‑dated bond yields remain elevated enough that, as Barron’s notes, stocks might struggle to break sharply higher unless yields fall or earnings surprise to the upside. [40]
Are Fed rate cuts always bullish for stocks? Not necessarily.
Morningstar’s recent “Markets Brief” and other historical studies point out that:
- Equities don’t always surge immediately after the first rate cuts; performance depends heavily on why the Fed is cutting—preemptively, or in response to stress. [41]
- Periods following the first cut often bring higher volatility and greater dispersion between sectors, with rate‑sensitive and economically cyclical industries reacting very differently. [42]
Invesco’s latest note on navigating Fed uncertainty echoes this, arguing that a modestly improving 2026 economy plus moderate rate cuts could be supportive for stocks overall, but only if inflation continues to trend closer to target and corporate earnings hold up. [43]
Futures, dots and the 2026 debate
A detailed breakdown of Fed funds futures published overnight shows: [44]
- The market is very confident about today’s cut.
- It is less sure about additional cuts, with futures implying only a shallow easing path through 2026.
- Traders will voteize the dot plot to see whether policymakers project one, two, or more cuts next year—and whether dots cluster around a higher long‑run “neutral” rate than in past cycles.
AI‑driven news tools like AInvest are also highlighting the potential impact of a Fed leadership transition on that 2026 path, noting that more dovish candidates for the chair could tilt expectations toward additional easing—though any perceived politicization of the Fed could also weigh on risk sentiment. [45]
What today’s setup means for investors
For investors watching the US stock market today, the message from prices and commentary is subtle but important:
- Most of the “good news” about a December cut is already priced in. Stocks are near records, AI giants dominate the indexes, and options markets are braced for a move but not pricing full‑blown panic. [46]
- The real risk is in the guidance. A hawkish cut—one that delivers today’s move but signals a slower, shallower easing path—could pressure richly valued growth stocks and small caps, particularly if long‑term yields stay firm. [47]
- Stock selection matters more than ever. Oracle’s earnings, Nvidia’s policy‑sensitive AI story, and divergent performances among consumer names like Cracker Barrel and GameStop show how idiosyncratic risk can overwhelm broad index moves on any given day. [48]
- Cross‑asset signals shouldn’t be ignored. Silver’s record‑breaking surge, a softer dollar and firmer yen all hint at changing views on inflation, real yields and risk appetite that could feed back into equities over the next few weeks. [49]
References
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