Sydney | 11 December 2025
The Australian sharemarket delivered another volatile session on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 swinging from early gains into a late sell-off as investors digested a US Federal Reserve rate cut and a mixed local jobs report. While the benchmark index slipped to around 1% lower by the close, a cluster of small and mid‑cap names surged, producing some eye‑watering one‑day gains across gold, iron ore and microcap investment plays.
Below is a breakdown of the biggest stock gainers on the ASX today, why they jumped, and what current forecasts and commentary are saying as of 11 December 2025.
Market backdrop: Fed cut, steady unemployment and a sell‑the‑news mood
Overnight, the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, a move that initially lifted global risk appetite and set ASX futures up for a strong open.
By lunchtime, the ASX 200 was trading around 0.6% higher near 8,630, helped by strength in miners and a softer Australian dollar. ABC+1 But sentiment faded through the afternoon. According to Trading Economics data, the ASX 200 later fell back toward roughly 8,567 points, down about 1.1% on the day – a classic “fade the rally” session as traders questioned how long the global easing narrative can last. Trading Economics
Locally, November labour force data showed unemployment steady at 4.3%, but with a sharp drop in full‑time jobs and a lift in part‑time roles, reinforcing concerns that growth is slowing even as the Reserve Bank remains hawkish.
Despite the index weakness, risk appetite was alive and well in pockets of the market – especially in small‑cap resources and a handful of corporate‑action stories.
Biggest percentage gainers across the entire ASX
Based on Market Index’s “Top Gainers” scan, these were the standout movers in percentage terms today (price > A$0.01): Market Index
- H&G High Conviction Ltd (ASX:HCF) – up ~77.8% to A$0.032
- Marmota Ltd (ASX:MEU) – up ~54.9% to A$0.11
- Alvo Minerals Ltd (ASX:ALV) – up ~33.3% to A$0.088
- Axiom Properties Ltd (ASX:AXI) – up ~23.1% to A$0.016
- Swift TV Ltd (ASX:STV) – up ~22.2% to A$0.011
Further down the list, names like Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX), Myer Holdings (ASX:MYR) and Intelligent Monitoring Group (ASX:IMB) also posted double‑digit or high‑single‑digit gains, driven by fresh operational and M&A news.
Let’s unpack the stories behind the most significant movers.
Marmota (ASX:MEU): “Bonanza-grade” gold discovery ignites the stock
Move: ~+55% to A$0.11
Gold explorer Marmota was the clear fundamental standout among today’s top gainers. The company followed up last night’s announcement of “spectacular” assays at its Greenewood discovery in South Australia’s Gawler Craton with intense buying interest on Thursday.
Recent drilling results from Greenewood include individual grades as high as 109 g/t gold, with intercepts such as 33 metres at 10 g/t from 22 metres, outlining a corridor of high‑grade shoots over roughly 900 metres of strike.
Coverage from multiple small‑cap outlets today described the find as one of the most significant new gold discoveries in the region in decades, highlighting:
- Near‑surface, high‑grade mineralisation, which could support relatively low‑cost open‑pit development if resources are confirmed.
- Ongoing Stage 2 drilling before Christmas, aiming to extend mineralisation beyond the current 900m strike.
Forecasts and analysis:
- Quant/algorithmic forecast platforms such as WalletInvestor see MEU trading around the A$0.07–A$0.08 zone in the very short term, but these models are based on technical momentum and should be treated with caution.
- Simply Wall St notes there is currently no formal analyst coverage on Marmota, making it difficult to reliably model earnings or future cash flows.
Takeaway: MEU’s move is driven by genuine exploration success rather than a meme‑style squeeze. However, this remains an early‑stage explorer with no production and limited financial visibility – meaning high geological upside, but equally high risk and volatility.
H&G High Conviction (ASX:HCF): microcap investment company rockets from the lows
Move: ~+77.8% to A$0.032
Closed‑end investment company H&G High Conviction – which runs a concentrated portfolio of micro‑cap ASX shares – delivered the single biggest percentage move on the market today. Yet there was no fresh ASX announcement or major fundamental news to explain the spike.
Key context:
- HCF has spent much of 2025 trading at deep lows – down roughly 96% from its 52‑week high near A$0.93.
- The company recently reported updated net tangible asset (NTA) backing for October and November but no transformative portfolio change.
Today’s move appears to combine:
- Extremely thin liquidity – HCF has a market cap of roughly A$300k with a very small free float.
- Short‑term speculative buying, possibly driven by traders scanning for deeply oversold microcaps reacting to the broader small‑cap rebound.
Takeaway: Big percentage gains in microcaps like HCF can be more about liquidity and sentiment than fundamentals. Price action of this kind can reverse quickly, especially when there is no new operational news.
Alvo Minerals (ASX:ALV): copper‑zinc discovery momentum
Move: ~+33.3% to A$0.088
Copper‑zinc explorer Alvo Minerals continued to rerate after announcing on 9 December that massive sulphide mineralisation had expanded its Touro discovery. The latest ASX announcement highlighted significant intercepts of copper and zinc sulphides, reinforcing the potential scale of the system.
With sentiment rotating toward battery and critical‑metal stories, traders appear to be positioning for:
- Ongoing drilling updates into the Christmas/New Year period.
- A 2026 narrative where copper remains structurally tight globally, supported by China demand and energy transition‑related usage.
There is limited mainstream broker coverage on ALV, so most of the price discovery is being driven by specialist small‑cap investors and retail traders responding to each exploration update.
Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX): three‑year production plan excites iron ore bulls
Move: ~+14% to around A$0.49–0.50
Mid‑tier iron ore producer Fenix Resources was another notable gainer, benefiting from both company‑specific news and a broader rally in materials stocks.
Today, Fenix released a three‑year production plan for its Weld Range project in Western Australia, outlining a pathway to ramp output to up to 6 million tonnes per year by FY28, consolidating operations as its Iron Ridge and Shine mines wind down.
Key points from current coverage:
- The new plan lifts FY26 production guidance and frames a multi‑year, higher‑volume strategy centered on Weld Range.
- Management is investigating cost‑reduction initiatives such as a long‑distance private haul road and alternative logistics via Geraldton Port.
- The move comes as the ASX 200 Materials Index hits record territory, with iron ore names like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue also near multi‑year highs.
Analyst forecasts:
- Consensus data from Investing.com shows a 12‑month average price target of about A$1.55 for FEX – implying more than 200% upside from current levels – and a “Strong Buy” recommendation from the small group of analysts covering the stock. Investing.com
Those targets embed assumptions around sustained iron ore prices and successful execution of the Weld Range plan; any stumble on either front could quickly unwind the optimism.
Myer (ASX:MYR): AGM update sparks a relief rally
Move: ~+9–10% to around A$0.45
Department store chain Myer finally caught a bid after a brutal year for shareholders.
At this morning’s AGM, management reported:
- Total sales up about 3% for the first 19 weeks of FY26.
- Solid 3.4% growth in Myer Retail and 1.3% growth in Apparel Brands.
- Online sales growing in the high single digits.
- A continued focus on keeping the cost‑of‑doing‑business ratio near 29%.
That trading update helped offset memories of September’s FY25 result, when Myer swung to a A$211.2m statutory loss after a large goodwill impairment on its apparel acquisition, triggering a one‑day share price plunge of more than 20%.
Forecasts and analyst views:
- TradingView aggregates a 12‑month price target of A$0.77 for MYR, with a range of A$0.60–1.12 and an overall “Buy” rating based on six recent analyst recommendations. TradingView
- Analysts expect EPS to rebound in coming quarters as distribution‑centre issues ease and integration of Apparel Brands progresses, but warn that elevated operating costs and weak consumer spending remain key headwinds.
Today’s rally looks like a relief bounce from depressed levels rather than a clean bill of health for the retailer.
Intelligent Monitoring Group (ASX:IMB): earnings‑accretive NZ security deal
Move: ~+10% to A$0.60
Security services provider Intelligent Monitoring Group jumped after announcing it will acquire New Zealand‑based BlueSky Holdco, including Tyco New Zealand and Red Wolf Security, for NZ$45 million in cash (about A$39m).
MarketIndex’s live blog flagged that the transaction is expected to be earnings accretive, with BlueSky bringing:
- Pro‑forma FY26 revenue of around NZ$89.5m (A$78.1m).
- EBITDA of about NZ$10.9m (A$10m).
Investors appear to be rewarding IMB for:
- Scaling into the New Zealand market with established brands.
- Structuring the deal to deliver double‑digit EPS accretion once integrated, according to initial transaction modelling.
Large‑cap leaders on the S&P/ASX 200
Among the S&P/ASX 200 constituents, the early‑session “Top ASX 200 gainers” list was dominated by: Market Index
- Flight Centre (ASX:FLT) – up around 8% after announcing the acquisition of UK cruise agency Iglu and upgrading FY26 profit guidance.
- James Hardie (ASX:JHX) – up more than 6%, tracking gains in US‑listed homebuilders as markets bet on lower global rates.
- Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) – up roughly 6% in early trade as gold miners extended their recent breakout; the stock later closed near A$3.80 after heavy volume.
- Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) and Sims (ASX:SGM) – both up around 4% amid momentum buying in high‑beta cyclicals.
Flight Centre’s “game‑changer” cruise deal
Flight Centre’s outperformance was anchored in yesterday’s announcement that it will acquire Iglu, a leading UK online cruise agency, for an upfront £100m plus up to £27m in earnouts. The deal immediately boosts the group’s cruise transaction volume toward A$2 billion per year and prompted an FY26 profit guidance upgrade.
Commentary across business media today framed the acquisition as strategically important:
- Deepens Flight Centre’s exposure to a “structurally growing” global cruise market.
- Adds a scalable technology platform and strong UK footprint.
- Is expected to be EPS‑accretive from FY26.
Sector themes behind today’s ASX top gainers
Looking across the leaderboard, a few clear themes stand out:
1. Gold and critical minerals are in the spotlight
- Marmota’s Greenewood discovery fed into a broader gold‑explorer momentum trade, alongside elevated interest in other juniors reporting drilling results.
- Alvo Minerals and other base‑metals juniors are riding optimism around copper and zinc demand into 2026, helped by constructive China trade data and supportive UBS research on commodity balances.
2. Iron ore and bulk commodities still look resilient
- Fenix’s new production roadmap arrives as the ASX 200 Materials Index hits fresh record highs and iron ore continues to trade around US$100+ per tonne.
- Major miners BHP, Rio and Fortescue remain near multi‑year highs, underpinning positive sentiment for smaller producers and developers.
3. Travel, housing and consumer cyclicals show selective strength
- Flight Centre’s cruise acquisition demonstrates how M&A can still command a premium where it clearly accelerates growth in a structural theme.
- James Hardie and other building‑related plays are benefiting from falling global rate expectations, even as Australian housing data remains mixed.
- Myer’s bounce shows that even beaten‑down retailers can rally on modestly positive updates – but the sector remains highly sensitive to any sign of consumer weakness.
4. Microcap speculation is alive and well
- H&G High Conviction, Swift TV, and a raft of tiny explorers and niche tech stocks delivered double‑digit moves on very small dollar volumes.
- These names often move more on liquidity and trader sentiment than on fundamentals – a dynamic that cuts both ways.
What today’s forecasts say – and what they don’t
As of 11 December 2025, third‑party forecast data paints a mixed picture for the day’s biggest winners:
- Fenix Resources (FEX) – Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around A$1.55, more than triple current levels, with a “Strong Buy” rating; upside is highly dependent on iron ore prices and successful execution of its Weld Range plan. Investing.com
- Myer (MYR) – Analysts see a A$0.77 price target on average (range A$0.60–1.12) and overall “Buy” ratings, implying upside if cost control and distribution‑centre fixes deliver a profit recovery. TradingView
- Marmota (MEU) – There is no formal analyst coverage, and algorithmic price models only extrapolate past trading patterns; future performance will hinge on follow‑up drilling, metallurgical work and potential resource definition at Greenewood.
- H&G High Conviction (HCF) – Forecast sites highlight extreme volatility, a tiny market cap and a history of sharp drawdowns; there is little in the way of mainstream institutional analysis.
In short: forecasts are directional, not guarantees. They’re useful for understanding how a small group of analysts or models are framing risk and reward – but they cannot substitute for detailed, security‑specific research.
Key takeaways for investors and traders
- The index can fall while individual stocks soar. Today’s ~1% drop in the ASX 200 masked huge gains in select gold, iron ore, travel and microcap names. Stock picking and sector rotation mattered more than owning the index.
- Fundamental catalysts drove the most compelling moves. Marmota’s discovery, Fenix’s production plan, Flight Centre’s cruise acquisition, Myer’s AGM update and IMB’s NZ deal all provided clear narratives for today’s buyers.
- Microcap spikes demand extra caution. HCF and other tiny names may look irresistible on a percentage‑gain leaderboard, but their liquidity, disclosure and balance‑sheet risks are substantial.
- Macro remains a powerful undertone. The Fed’s rate cut and Australia’s jobs data continue to shape expectations for 2026, driving flows into rate‑sensitive sectors like housing, financials and commodities.
