NEW YORK — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is heading into Thursday’s U.S. session with traders bracing for a rare, shutdown-distorted inflation update and a busy global central-bank calendar. As of 5:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, Dow futures were modestly higher, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures pointed more firmly upward, suggesting an early attempt to stabilize after Wednesday’s AI-driven selloff. 1
Dow futures at 5:45 a.m. ET: A cautious rebound attempt
Before the opening bell, U.S. index futures reflected a “relief-bounce” tone rather than full risk-on enthusiasm. In early premarket pricing, Dow Jones futures were up about 60 points (+0.13%), S&P 500 futures were up about 0.42%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.80%. 1
That bounce is arriving with a major asterisk: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and today’s release is not a typical CPI print because of missing October data after the 2025 federal funding lapse. 2
What happened yesterday: Dow slid as AI anxiety hit “megacap mood”
Wednesday delivered a broad risk-off session led by technology and AI-adjacent names, pulling major U.S. indexes lower. The Dow fell 228.29 points (−0.47%) to 47,885.97, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.16% to 6,721.43 and the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.81% to 22,693.32. 3
At the center of the move was a familiar late-2025 market fault line: whether the AI buildout is transitioning from a story of “limitless demand” to one of tighter funding conditions, tougher ROI math, and pockets of overcapacity risk. Reuters summarized the day as a renewed bout of concern over record AI spending, with a key catalyst tied to Oracle’s AI-infrastructure narrative. 4
Why the Dow is still feeling the AI tape: Price-weighted sensitivity matters
The Dow’s structure can amplify moves when high-priced members swing, because the index is price-weighted (not market-cap weighted). That has kept investors especially attuned to large daily moves in premium-priced Dow components.
A recent example: Nvidia is now a Dow component, after replacing Intel in a change that took effect in November 2024, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. 5
So when AI bellwethers move sharply, the Dow can feel it quickly — even on days when the broader market’s narrative is dominated by Nasdaq-style growth fears.
The headline catalyst today: CPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET — but it won’t look normal
The key “Dow Jones today” story is not just CPI itself, but how traders interpret a CPI report that was reshaped by the 2025 federal shutdown.
What economists expect
A Reuters survey cited expectations that headline CPI rose 3.1% year over year in November, which would be the largest annual increase since May 2024. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to be up 3.0% year over year. 6
Why the report is unusual
Because the government shutdown prevented October data collection, BLS will not publish month-to-month CPI changes for November. Reuters notes that the October CPI release was canceled, and economists have been advised to interpret the data primarily via year-over-year comparisons or two-month changes. 6
BLS has also publicly flagged the issue: it confirmed the November 2025 CPI news release is scheduled for Dec. 18, 2025, and that it will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where October 2025 data are missing. 7
The policy backdrop: tariffs, affordability, and a “noisy data” environment
Reuters’ CPI preview emphasizes that inflation dynamics have been complicated by tariff pass-through and the timing of data collection (including the possibility that late-month holiday discounting could skew the snapshot). 6
A separate Washington Post analysis similarly framed November’s CPI as the first comprehensive inflation reading after the shutdown gap, with economists watching categories such as shelter and services for underlying pressure. 8
Will CPI move the Dow? Some strategists say the reaction may be muted
Even with CPI on deck, today’s market reaction is not guaranteed to be straightforward.
In Reuters commentary, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown argued the Fed’s focus has shifted toward supporting a weakening labor market, suggesting CPI may not matter as much as usual in the near-term reaction function. 4
That view also reflects the post-shutdown reality: when traders lack clean month-to-month inflation trends, it can be harder to price “the next step” with conviction — which sometimes reduces the shelf life of knee-jerk futures moves.
Central banks are part of the story: BoE and ECB today, BOJ next
Dow watchers are also tracking international policy decisions because they can impact the dollar, global yields, and multinational earnings expectations.
Reuters reported that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to decide on rates Thursday, with the ECB widely expected to hold, while Japan’s central bank is expected to raise rates Friday (with debate around the pace of tightening thereafter). 4
In Europe, Reuters added that markets widely expect a 25-basis-point BoE cut, a view strengthened after UK inflation cooled more than expected. 9
Stocks to watch that can shape “Dow Jones today”
While CPI will likely dominate the macro narrative, single-stock action can still steer sentiment — especially with the Dow’s price-weighted dynamics.
1) Accenture earnings: A Dow component with a read on enterprise demand
Accenture (ACN) is a Dow member and reports quarterly results Thursday morning. The company’s earnings release and conference call are scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET, according to its investor relations announcement. 10
Investors often treat Accenture as a proxy for:
- large-enterprise IT budgets,
- services demand,
- and (in this cycle) consulting and implementation spend tied to AI adoption.
2) Nike earnings after the close: Consumer and brand-demand signal
Nike (NKE) — also a Dow component — is expected to report after Thursday’s closing bell. One consensus snapshot cited expectations around $0.37 EPS on about $12.2 billion in revenue. 11
Nike’s results can ripple beyond the stock itself because they’re often read as a “real economy” check on discretionary demand, promotions, and inventory conditions.
3) Micron’s upbeat outlook lifts chip sentiment into the morning
Outside the Dow, Micron is helping set the tone for semiconductors and broader AI-linked risk appetite.
A Reuters-sourced report described Micron retooling production for AI data-center demand and increasing its 2026 capex plans to $20 billion. It also noted CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s view that memory markets could remain tight beyond 2026, with Micron expecting to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers in the medium term. 12
The same Reuters-sourced write-up said AMD and Nvidia were up about 1% each in premarket trading alongside the chip optimism. 12
Other markets influencing the Dow: yields, oil, and safe-haven metals
Treasury yields: watching the CPI impulse
Reuters reported modest Treasury gains ahead of CPI, with short- and long-end yields edging lower in early global trading — a typical pre-data positioning pattern when markets expect a potentially market-moving macro print. 4
Oil: geopolitical risk premium returns
Oil has been sensitive to geopolitics this week. Reuters said oil extended gains after President Donald Trump ordered a “blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, and added that possible new sanctions on Russian oil (if no Ukraine peace agreement) were also feeding near-term supply concerns. 4
Rising energy prices can support energy-linked equities, but they can also complicate the inflation narrative — a key tension for Dow traders on CPI day.
Gold and silver: the “rates + risk” barometer
Reuters noted silver hit record territory and highlighted expectations among some analysts that silver could test $70/oz next year if U.S. rate cuts continue to underpin precious metals demand. The report also pointed to dovish-leaning commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller as part of the supportive backdrop. 13
Forecasts and scenarios for the Dow today: what to watch after 8:30 a.m.
With Dow futures only modestly higher at 5:45 a.m. ET, the market is essentially saying: “We’ll decide after CPI.”
Here are the most plausible paths for the Dow Jones today:
Scenario 1: CPI hotter than expected (or inflation looks sticky)
- Yields could jump, pressuring rate-sensitive and long-duration names.
- The Dow’s composition can sometimes cushion the hit versus the Nasdaq, but high-priced Dow tech (including Nvidia) could still sway the index sharply.
- Traders may pivot toward defensives or cash-flow-heavy cyclicals, depending on how oil and the dollar react.
Scenario 2: CPI in line (but too “noisy” to build a clean trend)
- Markets may revert to the dominant late-2025 driver: earnings and AI capex credibility.
- Expect heightened sensitivity to any headlines about AI infrastructure funding, data-center buildouts, and the “who really monetizes AI” debate — the theme Reuters said resurfaced after Oracle-related developments. 4
Scenario 3: CPI cooler than expected (or signals demand cooling)
- Futures’ early rebound attempt could strengthen, especially if yields fall.
- Cyclical Dow components could benefit if investors interpret lower inflation as “soft landing intact,” but the market could also read it as “growth slowing,” depending on details.
The takeaway for investors following “Dow Jones today”
At 5:45 a.m. ET, the Dow is positioned for a tentative bounce — but it’s a CPI-and-central-banks day, and the market is still digesting a narrative shift in AI: from euphoria about demand to scrutiny about financing, returns, and sustainability of spending. 4
The cleanest way to think about today’s session is this: CPI sets the macro temperature at 8:30 a.m. ET, while earnings and AI capex credibility (Accenture and Nike for the Dow; Micron for the chip complex) determine whether the rebound has legs into the open and beyond. 2
