Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) ended Friday, December 19, 2025, with a solid gain, then barely budged in after-hours trading—an important clue about how investors are digesting the latest wave of obesity-drug headlines heading into next week.
One key calendar note up front: U.S. stock markets do not open on Saturdays. With December 19 falling on a Friday, the next regular stock-market open is Monday, December 22, 2025 (barring any exchange-specific changes).
LLY stock price after the bell: how Eli Lilly traded after hours on Dec. 19
- Close (4:00 p.m. ET): $1,071.44, up $14.56 (+1.38%)
- After-hours (6:40 p.m. ET): $1,072.32, up $0.88 (+0.08%)
- Day range: $1,059.01 to $1,075.38
- Volume: ~5.76M shares [1]
That “strong close / quiet after-hours” pattern typically signals that Friday’s move was driven by widely known information already circulating during regular trading—rather than a fresh, market-moving announcement that hit after 4 p.m. ET.
What drove Eli Lilly higher on Friday: the market is still pricing the “next phase” of obesity treatment
1) Orforglipron “maintenance” data keeps Lilly’s oral GLP‑1 story alive
Investors continue to focus on Lilly’s late-stage progress for orforglipron, its once-daily oral GLP‑1 candidate. In topline results from the ATTAIN‑MAINTAIN Phase 3 trial, Lilly said patients switching from injectable therapies were able to maintain weight loss better than placebo.
Lilly’s announcement emphasized maintenance after prior injectable use (Wegovy or Zepbound), and also confirmed it has submitted orforglipron to the FDA for obesity treatment. [2]
Reuters’ coverage of the same dataset highlighted the scale of the maintenance effect (including the 0.9 kg and 5.0 kg average differences vs placebo depending on the prior injectable), and noted that expedited review mechanics could bring a decision as early as March 2026. [3]
Why it matters for the stock: Wall Street increasingly sees obesity as a chronic-care market with multiple “chapters”—initiation, escalation, and long-term maintenance. A credible pill for maintenance can expand addressable demand (including patients who dislike injections long-term) and can also reshape pricing and adherence dynamics over time.
2) The accelerated FDA-review debate is also part of the trade
One reason orforglipron has become such a dominant near-term catalyst is the possibility of a faster-than-standard FDA timeline.
BioPharma Dive reported that orforglipron was awarded an FDA “national priority” voucher, potentially shortening review timing, and framed this as a competitive counterweight to Novo Nordisk’s earlier filing activity. [4]
3) Novo’s competing filings keep the GLP‑1 “arms race” in the spotlight
Competition matters because it influences expectations for:
- market share
- pricing
- payer coverage
- and whether demand expands faster than supply constraints ease.
BioPharma Dive’s Dec. 19 news roundup noted Novo Nordisk’s filing activity for CagriSema and contrasted it with Lilly’s orforglipron submission—underscoring that the obesity-drug market is moving quickly toward “next generation” options. [5]
Today’s analyst forecasts and price targets: what the Street is saying (and what it implies)
While investors fixate on trial headlines, analyst notes published Friday put clearer numbers around the bull case—and the valuation debate.
Bernstein: Outperform, $1,300 price target
Bernstein SocGen reiterated Outperform with a $1,300 price target, emphasizing orforglipron’s potential as a convenient maintenance therapy—even while noting the maintenance study isn’t a registration-enabling trial on its own. [6]
Other bullish targets mentioned in Friday’s coverage
The same Friday note also referenced:
- Goldman Sachs reiterating Buy with a $1,145 target
- Truist reiterating Buy with a $1,182 target (in the context of Lilly’s obesity pipeline work) [7]
Bank of America: “room for upside,” with a big 2026 orforglipron ramp call
A separate Dec. 19 market note highlighted Bank of America’s view that the market may be underestimating Lilly’s next obesity chapter, pointing to 2026 launch dynamics for orforglipron and forecasting $3 billion in revenue in 2026 in that framework. [8]
The valuation argument isn’t going away
Barron’s framed the debate bluntly: Lilly’s stock has already tripled since 2022, and expectations for oral obesity drugs in 2026 are rising—but some analysts still argue the market opportunity could grow far beyond current consensus over the next decade. [9]
The biggest policy headline late Friday: drug-pricing deals (and why Lilly investors still care)
Late Friday, Reuters reported the Trump administration announced drug-pricing agreements with nine major pharma companies, combining price reductions (including for Medicaid and for certain cash-pay channels) with tariff relief and manufacturing-related commitments.
Even though Lilly wasn’t among the nine new signatories, Reuters explicitly noted Lilly as one of the earlier companies that had previously struck deals with the administration. The market reaction in the broader group was generally positive, with Reuters describing shares of most participating drugmakers up about 1% to 3% as investors weighed the tariff certainty and questioned how much incremental economic damage the price cuts would actually cause. [10]
Why this matters for LLY before Monday:
- It keeps U.S. drug pricing risk front-and-center for the entire sector.
- It may influence sentiment around obesity-drug affordability and access—both a risk (pressure on net prices) and a potential growth lever (more covered lives).
A real near-term headwind to watch: Canada price cuts start soon
Investors also have to reconcile growth narratives with pricing reality.
Reuters reported that Lilly is lowering list prices in Canada for Mounjaro and Zepbound by 20% or more, with new pricing taking effect December 29, 2025, according to a report by The Globe and Mail cited by Reuters. [11]
This is not necessarily “thesis-breaking” for a company of Lilly’s scale, but it’s the kind of development traders watch closely for signs of:
- increasing payer leverage,
- international reference pricing pressure,
- and whether “access expansion” comes with sharper price concessions.
What to know before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 22, 2025)
Here’s the practical checklist investors and traders are likely to focus on between now and the next session:
1) Any weekend developments on U.S. drug pricing
Because the White House’s pricing framework is evolving and highly headline-driven, new details (or political pushback) can move large-cap pharma quickly—especially if markets decide the deals are more economically meaningful than early trading implied. [12]
2) Signals about the FDA timing for orforglipron
The stock’s near-term narrative is increasingly tied to when an FDA decision could land and how review proceeds under the accelerated pathway. Expect ongoing scrutiny of both timelines and the process itself. [13]
3) Competitive headline risk from Novo Nordisk (and the broader GLP‑1 pipeline race)
Any new filing updates, regulator comments, or leaks about obesity-drug reviews can sway “relative winners” in the space, even on days when there’s no direct Lilly news. [14]
4) Pricing and access signals
Watch for follow-through reporting on:
- the Canada price reset and whether it hints at broader international pricing strategy, [15]
- plus any incremental news on U.S. affordability channels tied to the administration’s programs. [16]
5) The market’s tolerance for premium valuation
With LLY already near the top of the mega-cap valuation conversation in healthcare, Monday’s open will likely reflect whether investors still want “quality growth defensives”—or whether they rotate away if rates, macro data, or policy headlines change the calculus.
Bottom line for LLY after hours
As of Friday evening, Eli Lilly stock’s muted after-hours move suggests no fresh surprise hit after the close. The next meaningful moves are more likely to come from:
- regulatory timeline signals (orforglipron),
- pricing/access headlines (U.S. and international),
- and competitive obesity-drug news across Lilly and Novo.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.prnewswire.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.biopharmadive.com, 5. www.biopharmadive.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.biopharmadive.com, 14. www.biopharmadive.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com
