Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is starting the holiday-shortened week in the spotlight as it officially joins the Nasdaq-100 Index ahead of Monday’s market open. Yet, despite the prestige boost and expected passive-fund demand, STX stock is sharply lower in Monday trading, a reminder that index events can bring volatility as well as visibility. [1]
As of the latest available trade update on Monday, December 22, 2025, Seagate shares trade around $281.84, down roughly 4.9% on the day (intraday range roughly $279.50–$302.40).
Below is a full breakdown of the current news, forecasts, and analyst takes hitting the wires today (22.12.2025)—plus the key catalysts investors are watching into early 2026.
STX stock today: why Seagate is moving on Dec. 22
Two narratives are colliding today:
- Nasdaq-100 inclusion (structural positive, medium-term).
- Short-term positioning and year-end liquidity (can be choppy).
On the macro side, markets are entering a holiday-shortened week with expectations of lighter volumes—conditions that can amplify moves in individual names even without a single “new” company-specific headline. [2]
From a company-specific lens, STX has been one of 2025’s standout “AI infrastructure” beneficiaries, tied to surging data-center storage demand. That kind of performance often attracts both long-only buyers and tactical traders—setting up the possibility of “sell-the-news” behavior around major index events. [3]
The biggest headline: Seagate joins the Nasdaq-100 today
Nasdaq previously announced that Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is one of six additions to the Nasdaq-100 as part of the index’s annual reconstitution, effective prior to the market open on Monday, December 22, 2025. [4]
Why Nasdaq-100 inclusion matters for STX stock
For investors, inclusion can be meaningful because the Nasdaq-100 is tracked by a large ecosystem of products. Nasdaq said the index underpins 200+ tracking products with over $600 billion in assets under management globally, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). [5]
That doesn’t guarantee an immediate rally—especially if the market has already “pre-positioned” for the change—but it can support:
- Higher liquidity and tighter spreads over time
- More institutional attention
- Potential incremental demand from passive strategies that mirror the Nasdaq-100 [6]
“AI storage” is the core bull thesis—and 2025 proved the market cares
Seagate’s 2025 story has been tightly linked to AI-related infrastructure buildouts and the storage required to train, serve, and retain ever-larger datasets.
Reuters has described a broader surge in data-storage names—Seagate included—powered by “staggering demand for hard drives” in the race to scale AI infrastructure, with Seagate and Western Digital both up more than 200% in 2025 at the time of reporting. [7]
That demand narrative also shows up in Seagate’s own commentary. In its most recent quarterly results release, Seagate emphasized strong demand for high-capacity products and said it is ramping shipments of its Mozaic HAMR products, which it noted are qualified with five of the world’s largest cloud customers. [8]
Earnings outlook: the next major catalyst is late January 2026
Next report date
Several market calendars currently point to late January for Seagate’s next earnings report:
- TipRanks lists Jan. 28, 2026 (before open) as “confirmed” for fiscal Q2 2026, with a consensus EPS forecast of 2.79. [9]
- Investing.com also lists Jan. 28, 2026 for the next report and shows a revenue forecast around $2.73B. [10]
- MarketBeat, however, notes Seagate has not confirmed its next publication date and shows an estimated date based on prior schedules. [11]
The practical takeaway: investors should treat Jan. 28 as the leading calendar expectation, but still verify through Seagate investor relations when the company formally posts the date. [12]
What guidance says (and why it matters for forecasts)
In its fiscal Q1 2026 results release, Seagate guided for fiscal Q2 2026:
- Revenue: $2.70B ± $0.10B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $2.75 ± $0.20 [13]
That guidance range lines up closely with third-party consensus snapshots that cluster around the high-$2 EPS range and roughly $2.7B revenue. [14]
A “preview” lens hitting today’s news cycle
A widely circulated earnings preview published today highlights market expectations for the coming report and frames Seagate as one of the market’s strongest performers over the past year, while noting that analyst estimates and price targets remain a central focus for the next leg of the trade. [15]
The fundamentals investors are anchoring on: margins, cash flow, and HAMR execution
Seagate’s latest quarterly report (fiscal Q1 2026, released Oct. 28, 2025) showed:
- Revenue: $2.63B
- Non-GAAP gross margin: 40.1% (record levels, per company)
- Non-GAAP EPS: $2.61
- Free cash flow: $427M [16]
Management framed the quarter as evidence of execution and demand strength, while positioning Mozaic HAMR as a key technology lever for performance, durability and total cost of ownership—especially in hyperscale cloud environments. [17]
This is crucial because, in storage, the market often rewards companies that can:
- Ship higher-capacity drives at scale
- Hold pricing and mix
- Expand margins through cycle turns
- Convert demand into durable cash generation
Dividend update: a near-term date investors are watching this week
Seagate’s board declared a $0.74 quarterly cash dividend, payable Jan. 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 24, 2025 (record date). [18]
Because the record date falls this week, dividend-focused investors may keep the calendar in view alongside the Nasdaq-100 reconstitution volatility. [19]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street stands on STX
Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, but price targets span a wide range—typical for a stock that has already delivered a massive run and is still tied to cyclical enterprise spending.
Consensus view and targets
- TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target around $306.33, with targets ranging from about $150 to $465. [20]
- MarketBeat also reflects a “Moderate Buy” consensus and lists a consensus price target around $293.13 (as presented in its summary). [21]
Recent notable calls (December 2025)
- MarketBeat reports Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $337 from $270 and maintained an Overweight rating (report dated Dec. 17, 2025). [22]
- An Insider Monkey piece published today (Dec. 22, 2025) also highlighted that Morgan Stanley move and noted a Citi increase to $320 from $275 on Dec. 2, 2025, tying optimism to AI-driven content creation and data retention trends. [23]
A media angle circulating today
In today’s coverage cycle, commentary tied to CNBC’s Jim Cramer also resurfaced—summed up by the phrase that he expects Seagate to “go up,” while still cautioning about what types of names investors “should be in.” [24]
Institutional and insider activity: what filings-based stories are saying today
Two filings-based updates published today reinforce how institutionally owned STX has become:
- A MarketBeat note says Voya Investment Management trimmed its Seagate position by 6.2% in the third quarter and reiterates that institutions hold a large share of STX (MarketBeat cites roughly 92.87%). [25]
- Another MarketBeat roundup reiterates the same institutional-ownership figure and also notes recent insider selling totals over the past three months (as aggregated by MarketBeat). [26]
It’s worth treating these items as context, not a single-day “signal”: 13F-style institutional data is typically backward-looking, and insider transactions can include option exercises, tax withholding, and pre-arranged selling plans that don’t always reflect a directional view.
Bull case vs. bear case for Seagate stock heading into 2026
The bull case for STX
- AI infrastructure buildout continues, keeping nearline storage demand elevated. [27]
- HAMR ramp succeeds at scale, expanding areal density leadership and strengthening Seagate’s position with hyperscalers (the company says Mozaic HAMR is qualified with five large cloud customers). [28]
- Margins and free cash flow remain strong, supporting dividends and potential buybacks over time. [29]
- Nasdaq-100 inclusion expands passive ownership and may improve trading liquidity/visibility. [30]
The bear case / key risks
- Cyclicality: enterprise/storage demand can cool quickly if cloud capex pauses or digestion phases emerge. [31]
- Execution risk on new platforms: scaling advanced recording tech is operationally complex. [32]
- Valuation and expectations: after a ~multi-hundred-percent run in 2025, expectations can become unforgiving—any guidance wobble can trigger sharp pullbacks. [33]
- Policy/tax and capital structure factors: Seagate’s own guidance framework referenced items such as global minimum tax (Pillar Two) impacts and exchangeable notes dilution assumptions. [34]
What to watch next for Seagate (STX) stock
With today’s Nasdaq-100 entry now in effect, the market’s focus typically shifts quickly to the next catalyst set:
- Index-rebalance aftershocks: follow-through flows and volatility in the days immediately after inclusion. [35]
- Dividend calendar: record date Dec. 24, 2025, payment Jan. 9, 2026. [36]
- Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings: many calendars point to Jan. 28, 2026, with consensus EPS around 2.79, but investors should watch for official confirmation. [37]
- HAMR ramp and hyperscaler demand signals: any updates on Mozaic HAMR shipment ramp and cloud customer adoption. [38]
- Macro tape: holiday-shortened trading week dynamics can exaggerate moves. [39]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investors.seagate.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. investors.seagate.com, 14. investors.seagate.com, 15. www.barchart.com, 16. investors.seagate.com, 17. investors.seagate.com, 18. investors.seagate.com, 19. investors.seagate.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.insidermonkey.com, 24. www.insidermonkey.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. investors.seagate.com, 29. investors.seagate.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. investors.seagate.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. investors.seagate.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. investors.seagate.com, 37. www.tipranks.com, 38. investors.seagate.com, 39. www.reuters.com
