December 23, 2025 — Natural gas markets are heading into the holiday stretch with a familiar winter tug-of-war: weather-driven demand vs. resilient supply. In the U.S., record production and warmer forecasts are keeping futures from running away, even as traders watch storage withdrawals and LNG export demand. In Europe, prices remain relatively contained thanks to Norwegian flows and LNG availability, despite winter drawdowns. In Asia, the LNG picture is split—China’s domestic LNG prices are sliding to multi-year lows on weak winter demand, while Myanmar is preparing a comeback as an LNG importer after years off the map.
Below are the key natural gas developments shaping “natural gas price today” headlines across North America, Europe, and Asia.
Today’s key natural gas headlines
- U.S. output hit a new record so far this month, pressuring futures alongside warmer weather forecasts. [1]
- Europe’s largest supplier, Norway, reported gas output beating forecasts, reinforcing the “adequate supply” narrative on the continent. [2]
- Myanmar is expected to resume LNG imports next year after receiving partial cargo delivery, according to Kpler. [3]
- A non-sanctioned LNG tanker loaded cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Portovaya terminal, highlighting the market’s sanctions-era complexity. [4]
- The U.S. opened comment windows on multiple LNG export-related filings, including a proposed deepwater port project off Texas and an export commencement extension tied to a Mexico terminal. [5]
Natural gas price today: a market caught between winter demand and stubborn supply
Natural gas remains a weather market wearing a geopolitics mask. On one side, winter still matters—heating demand spikes can drain storage and whip prices around. On the other side, the supply base (especially in the U.S.) has proven remarkably durable, and global LNG availability is acting like a shock absorber—particularly for Europe.
In the U.S., benchmark prices have been easing from early-December highs; the American Gas Association reported Henry Hub fell from an early-December peak (around $5.29/MMBtu on Dec. 5) to roughly $3.98/MMBtu by Dec. 19. [6]
In Europe, benchmark TTF prices have been hovering in the high-20s euros per megawatt-hour range, with data providers showing TTF around the €27/MWh neighborhood on December 23. [7]
United States: record production collides with warmer forecasts
The main U.S. storyline is blunt: output is high, and the weather has backed off (at least in forecasts). Reuters-reported market notes compiled by TradingView cite LSEG estimates showing average U.S. natural gas output hit a record 109.9 bcfd so far in December. [8]
That’s the kind of number that makes rallies hard to sustain unless cold gets truly serious.
Positioning has also been shifting. The same Reuters/TradingView item notes speculators increased net long positions by 7,874 contracts for the week ended December 9 (per CFTC data). [9]
That combination—rising bullish bets, but supply still flooding in—often translates into choppy price action rather than clean trends.
Storage: withdrawals are growing, but inventories are still near normal
The latest U.S. storage data remains central because it’s the closest thing the market has to a weekly “reality check.”
EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update (for the week ending Dec. 17, released Dec. 18) reported:
- Net withdrawals of 167 Bcf for the week ending December 12
- Working gas stocks at 3,579 Bcf
- 32 Bcf above the five-year average and 61 Bcf below last year [10]
Holiday timing matters: the next major U.S. storage release is delayed
This week’s calendar is part of the story. EIA’s official schedule shows the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report next release is Monday, December 29, 2025 (12:00 p.m.), reflecting the Christmas holiday shift. [11]
For traders, that creates a classic “thin liquidity” setup: fewer datapoints, less participation, and sometimes outsized moves if forecasts swing.
Europe: steady Norwegian supply helps keep prices in check
Europe’s gas market is no longer trapped in the panic loop of 2022, but it’s still sensitive to winter drawdowns and any disruption to pipeline supply or LNG arrivals. Today’s theme is supply confidence—particularly tied to Norway.
Norway’s offshore regulator data released today showed:
- Norway’s overall oil and gas production beat forecasts
- Natural gas production eased slightly to 361.5 million cubic meters per day in November, but still beat the forecast of 354.1 mcm/day [12]
That matters because Norway remains a cornerstone supplier to Europe—especially after the continent drastically reduced reliance on Russian pipeline gas.
Storage is lower than recent years, but not screaming “crisis”
One of Europe’s quiet pressure points is storage. Commodity analysts have highlighted that EU-wide gas storage was about 68.2% full as of Dec. 17, meaning inventories are below last year and below 2023 at this point in the season. [13]
Lower storage doesn’t automatically mean a price spike—especially if LNG keeps arriving and winter stays manageable—but it raises the stakes for January/February weather.
Policy backdrop: Europe is still legislating its break from Russian gas
Although it’s not a “today-only” headline, the policy direction is still reshaping gas flows and contract strategies. Reuters reported the European Parliament approved a plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, including Russian LNG by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 2027 (pending additional formal steps). [14]
In other words: Europe’s gas market is increasingly an LNG market—more flexible, but also more exposed to global LNG competition.
Asia LNG: China’s prices slide, while Myanmar prepares a return
Asia’s natural gas story today isn’t one single narrative—it’s a split-screen.
China: domestic LNG prices sink to multi-year lows
China’s domestic LNG market has been flashing a bearish signal for weeks, and today’s headlines reinforce it. Bloomberg reported Chinese wholesale domestic LNG prices fell below 3,500 yuan per ton, reaching the lowest level in about five years, as winter demand failed to meet expectations and inventories grew. [15]
Independent market analysis has pointed to oversupply drivers like high inventories and cargo arrivals as key forces behind the weakness. [16]
For global LNG sellers, softer Chinese spot appetite can loosen the entire global market—especially if Europe is adequately supplied and Asian weather is mild.
Myanmar: LNG imports set to resume after a four-year hiatus
On the other end of the demand spectrum is Myanmar, where LNG is re-emerging as part of the power supply picture.
Reuters reported that Myanmar is expected to resume LNG imports next year after receiving half a cargo last month, ending a more than four-year pause, citing Kpler. The report ties the previous halt to the civil war and notes ongoing gas shortages and widespread power outages. [17]
It’s not a volume story on the scale of China or Japan—but it’s a reminder that LNG demand growth often comes from “returning markets” as much as it does from brand-new ones.
Geopolitics: Russia’s gas pivot continues—by pipeline to China, and by LNG through sanctions gray zones
Two Russia-linked developments are shaping the natural gas conversation this week.
Russia-to-China pipeline exports: up sharply, but still not replacing Europe
Reuters reported Russia’s pipeline exports to China via the Power of Siberia route are expected to reach about 38.6–38.7 bcm in 2025, up from 31 bcm in 2024, exceeding the pipeline’s planned annual capacity of 38 bcm. [18]
But the same report underscores the hard limit: even strong growth to China hasn’t fully offset the revenue loss from Europe, and the long-discussed next leg (Power of Siberia 2) still faces unresolved pricing hurdles. [19]
Sanctioned LNG: Portovaya cargo moves again
On the LNG side, Reuters reported a tanker named Kunpeng loaded LNG from Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal, which is under Western sanctions. The tanker itself is not sanctioned, and ship-tracking data showed it arriving Dec. 18 and departing Dec. 21 with cargo. [20]
This matters because it illustrates how LNG can keep moving even when specific projects are sanctioned—through ownership structures, routing choices, or ship-to-ship transfers—creating persistent enforcement and transparency challenges in the global LNG trade.
Regulation and projects: new U.S. LNG export filings hit the Federal Register
While markets obsess over weather models, U.S. LNG buildout and export policy keeps quietly advancing through paperwork—and today brought two notable Federal Register notices.
ST LNG: new deepwater port export application off Texas
A DOE notice dated December 23, 2025 says ST LNG, LLC filed an application seeking long-term, multi-contract authorization to export domestically produced LNG to non-FTA countries, with volumes equivalent to about 460 Bcf/year (about 8.4 mtpa). The proposed export terminal would be a deepwater port located off the southeast coast of Matagorda, Texas. [21]
The comment deadline listed is February 23, 2026. [22]
Epcilon LNG: asks DOE for a 24-month export commencement extension for Mexico terminal
A separate DOE notice dated December 23, 2025 says Epcilon LNG LLC requested an amendment to extend the export commencement deadline tied to the proposed Amigo LNG export terminal in Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico. [23]
Key points in the notice include:
- Existing authorization volume: 395 Bcf/year (re-export of U.S.-sourced natural gas as LNG) [24]
- Current deadline: Dec. 8, 2027; requested extension to Dec. 8, 2029 [25]
- Epcilon says it intends to reach FID in early Q1 2026 [26]
Together, these filings show how the U.S. LNG pipeline isn’t just “projects under construction”—it’s also a constant stream of new applications, deadline extensions, and authorization tweaks.
LNG buildout: Commonwealth LNG places major equipment orders as it nears FID
Corporate project momentum also made news today. Offshore Energy reported that Technip Energies confirmed equipment purchase orders for Commonwealth LNG’s planned 9.5 mtpa facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana—orders involving:
- Baker Hughes (mixed-refrigerant compressors driven by LM9000 gas turbines)
- Honeywell (main cryogenic heat exchangers)
- Solar Turbines (Titan 350 turbine-generators) [27]
Technip Energies characterized this as a milestone toward a final investment decision expected in the first quarter of 2026. [28]
Baker Hughes’ own announcement (dated Dec. 22) said it received a Full Notice To Proceed to supply primary liquefaction equipment for the project. [29]
For the broader LNG market, the signal is clear: even in a world worried about future LNG oversupply, developers are still pushing large U.S. export projects toward FID—betting that long-term demand and contract structures will carry them through the cycle.
Policy shifts: New York ends a gas hookup subsidy; Australia moves toward gas reservation
Natural gas isn’t only traded on screens—it’s shaped by rules.
New York: repeal of the “100-foot rule” ends a long-running subsidy debate
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed legislation repealing the state’s “100-foot rule,” which required utilities to provide free natural gas hookups for new residential buildings within 100 feet of an existing gas line—costs that were typically spread across existing ratepayers. [30]
According to reporting, the change is projected to save about $600 million per year for current customers and will take effect in a year. [31]
Australia: east coast gas reservation scheme moves from concept to policy track
Australia’s federal government confirmed plans for an east coast gas reservation scheme that would require exporters to reserve 15% to 25% of production for domestic use, with the scheme starting in 2027 but applying to new contracts entered into from Dec. 22, 2025. [32]
This is exactly the kind of policy that can reshape LNG contract behavior years before it formally begins—because it changes expectations about future supply availability.
What to watch next in the natural gas market
The market is entering a period where the “big levers” can move quickly:
- U.S. weather and storage: The next EIA storage release is scheduled for Dec. 29, meaning forecasts may dominate price action until then. [33]
- Europe’s winter drawdown pace: Storage levels are lower than in recent years, and the balance hinges on continued Norwegian reliability and LNG arrivals. [34]
- Asia spot LNG demand: China’s weak domestic pricing suggests muted incremental demand, while smaller markets like Myanmar are re-entering. [35]
- Sanctions enforcement and shipping: Cargo movements from sanctioned projects can create sudden headline risk and routing shifts. [36]
- The LNG project pipeline: Fresh filings and equipment orders signal continued capacity growth—and long-term competition for buyers. [37]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.federalregister.gov, 6. www.aga.org, 7. tradingeconomics.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.eia.gov, 11. ir.eia.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.spglobal.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.bloomberg.com, 16. www.spglobal.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.federalregister.gov, 22. www.federalregister.gov, 23. www.federalregister.gov, 24. www.federalregister.gov, 25. www.federalregister.gov, 26. www.federalregister.gov, 27. www.offshore-energy.biz, 28. www.offshore-energy.biz, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.timesunion.com, 31. www.timesunion.com, 32. www.abc.net.au, 33. ir.eia.gov, 34. www.spglobal.com, 35. www.bloomberg.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.federalregister.gov
