Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is heading into the Christmas Eve session with its stock price hovering just below a psychologically important threshold: $500. That near-round-number “gravity” isn’t just trader superstition—it’s where valuation debates, delivery forecasts, and autonomy optimism collide for one of the market’s most narrative-driven mega-caps.
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Tesla shares are trading around $485, after recently printing a fresh all-time high earlier in the week. [1]
But today’s Tesla story isn’t one simple “up or down” headline. It’s a multi-thread plot: a new U.S. safety probe into Model 3 emergency door releases, Wall Street trimming near-term delivery expectations, and investors still bidding Tesla as an AI-and-robotaxi platform—even while the company’s core EV sales face real pressure in multiple regions.
Tesla stock price today: TSLA pauses below $500 after a record high
Tesla stock’s recent tape has been dramatic even by Tesla standards:
- Tesla closed Dec. 23 at about $485.56 after trading in the high $480s and low $490s range. [2]
- On Dec. 22, TSLA hit an intraday high of $498.83, one of the clearest “knocking on $500” moments of the year. [3]
Seasonality and market structure matter today, too. U.S. markets are in a holiday week with a shortened Christmas Eve session, and that can amplify headline reactions and momentum moves because liquidity is often thinner. [4]
The biggest Tesla headline on Dec. 24: NHTSA opens a Model 3 emergency door release probe
The most concrete new Tesla-specific development dated Dec. 24 is regulatory:
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a defect investigation into Model Year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles over concerns that emergency door release controls may not be easily accessible or clearly identifiable in an emergency. Reuters reported the probe covers an estimated 179,071 vehicles and was opened after the agency received a defect petition alleging the mechanical release is “hidden” and not intuitive. [5]
Two important investor takeaways:
- An investigation is not a recall, but it’s the first step in a process that can escalate if regulators determine a safety-related defect exists. [6]
- Door access and egress have become a recurring safety/legal theme for Tesla, particularly as vehicles rely heavily on electronic latches and “non-traditional” handle designs. Reuters noted recent litigation tied to fatal crashes where plaintiffs alleged occupants were trapped due to door design issues. [7]
In a stock that often trades on autonomy timelines and long-duration optionality, regulatory friction tends to matter less day-to-day—until it doesn’t. Safety scrutiny can influence everything from insurance costs and consumer perception to the pace at which regulators tolerate new autonomy deployments.
Delivery forecasts: analysts expect Tesla to miss Q4 consensus, with a U.S. “air pocket” narrative
While the NHTSA probe is the headline, deliveries are the looming catalyst that fundamental investors still watch.
A cluster of analyst notes this week has pointed to Tesla potentially falling short of consensus expectations for Q4 vehicle deliveries, with a specific explanation: a post-subsidy hangover in the U.S.
According to Investing.com’s summary of analyst commentary:
- New Street Research expects 415,000 to 435,000 Q4 deliveries versus a consensus estimate around 440,000. [8]
- Analyst Pierre Ferragu described a U.S. weakness dynamic tied to pull-forward demand in Q3 after U.S. subsidies expired at the end of September, calling it a “U.S. air-pocket.” [9]
- UBS analyst Joseph Spak forecast ~415,000 deliveries, around 5% below Visible Alpha consensus, flagging weaker U.S. demand after the expiration of the $7,500 consumer EV tax credit. [10]
What makes this especially market-relevant is the meta-question analysts themselves are asking: is the market still trading Tesla on quarterly deliveries, or primarily on robotaxi and Optimus milestones? [11]
Investors also have a near-term date in view: deliveries are expected to be reported on Jan. 2, per the same analyst roundup. [12]
Demand reality check: U.S. sales dropped sharply in November, even as Tesla’s EV share rose
The “air pocket” framing is backed by hard U.S. sales data.
Reuters reported that Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year-over-year in November to about 39,800 vehicles, the lowest monthly level since January 2022, citing S&P Global Mobility data. The broader U.S. EV market fell even more sharply, and Tesla’s EV market share rose to 56.7% from 43.1%. [13]
That combination—falling unit sales but rising share—is a reminder that Tesla can be “winning” competitively while still fighting a market-level slowdown driven by incentives, rates, model cycles, and consumer fatigue.
Europe: BEVs are gaining share overall, but Tesla’s registrations have slumped in key markets
In Europe, the story is even more split-screen: battery-electric adoption is rising, but Tesla’s brand momentum has been uneven.
ACEA data shows that by November 2025 year-to-date, battery-electric cars reached 16.9% of EU market share (up from 13.4% in the comparable prior-year period), while hybrids were the largest powertrain category at 34.6%. [14]
Yet Tesla-specific registration data in Europe has been rough in multiple markets:
- Reuters reported Tesla registrations in November fell 58% in France, 59% in Sweden, 49% in Denmark, 44% in the Netherlands, and 47% in Portugal, among other declines—while rising in Norway and Italy. [15]
- In Germany, Reuters cited KBA data showing Tesla sold 1,763 cars in November (down 20.2% year-over-year), with January–November registrations down 48.4% to 17,358. [16]
- In the UK, Reuters reported November registrations fell about 19% year-over-year, amid intensifying competition and a crowded EV field. [17]
Zooming out, Reuters has also framed Tesla as trying to course correct from a broader sales skid, citing pressure across Europe, China, and the U.S., plus the impact of competition from both Chinese entrants and legacy automakers that have “caught up.” [18]
Analyst price targets and valuation: Canaccord lifts Tesla to $551, but the multiple debate is getting louder
Even with delivery estimates edging down, the price-target cycle has remained supportive—because a chunk of Wall Street is increasingly valuing Tesla as an AI/autonomy platform rather than “just” an automaker.
A widely circulated note summarized by Investing.com said Canaccord Genuity raised its Tesla price target to $551 from $482 while keeping a Buy rating. The note explicitly acknowledges lower near-term delivery expectations but argues the U.S. EV reset could support more durable demand over time, with autonomy and robotaxi expectations forming “sentiment tailwinds.” [19]
The mechanics of that valuation matter:
- Investing.com reported Canaccord referenced Tesla’s very high P/E ratio (~337) and said analysts forecast FY2025 EPS of $1.72, underscoring how much growth is already “priced in.” [20]
- Canaccord’s target approach applied ~46x to its 2028 estimated non-GAAP EPS of $11.98, per the same write-up. [21]
In plain English: bull cases are increasingly built on what Tesla might earn years out, assuming autonomy, software, energy storage, and even humanoid robotics create new profit pools. [22]
That also means Tesla’s stock can be hypersensitive to “proof points” that those futures are real.
Robotaxi momentum: Tesla’s autonomy narrative keeps getting fresh oxygen
If Tesla stock has a “prime mover” narrative in late 2025, it’s autonomy.
Reuters: Tesla testing robotaxis with no safety monitor—and even no occupants
Reuters reported on Dec. 15 that Tesla shares jumped after Elon Musk said Tesla was testing robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat, and that testing was underway with no occupants in the car. Reuters also noted Tesla’s valuation (at the time) was heavily tied to investor optimism around self-driving and humanoid robot ambitions, even though most revenue still came from EV sales. [23]
Reuters added that Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin in June using modified Model Y vehicles with Full Self-Driving, with early operations geo-fenced and including a human safety monitor—highlighting that the company is moving stepwise rather than flipping a “driverless” switch overnight. [24]
California reality: lots of vehicles registered, but not classified as driverless AV service
The autonomy story is also heavily shaped by regulation—especially in California.
Business Insider reported Tesla registered 1,655 vehicles and 798 drivers for its California ride-hailing service with the CPUC, scaling rapidly from 28 cars and 128 drivers at launch. The report noted Tesla’s program is not registered as an autonomous vehicle service in California and that the company has not applied for a driverless testing permit there. [25]
This distinction is crucial for investors: a ride-hailing network using supervised driver assistance can expand quickly, but it’s not the same as being legally allowed to offer driverless commercial robotaxi service in the strictest regulatory jurisdictions.
The competitive mirror: Waymo’s outage shows autonomy still has operational edge cases
Autonomy isn’t only a Tesla execution story—it’s an industry reality check. Reuters reported that Waymo planned a software update after a San Francisco power outage caused issues that snarled some of its self-driving vehicles. [26]
For TSLA investors, headlines like this cut both ways:
- They highlight how hard full autonomy remains (bull case risk).
- They also underscore how valuable robust autonomy could be if solved (bull case fuel).
Governance and “Musk risk”: still part of the Tesla stock equation
Tesla’s equity story is inseparable from Elon Musk, and late 2025 has produced governance headlines that can shape investor sentiment.
Reuters reported on Dec. 20 that Musk’s net worth surged after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth a reported $139 billion that had been voided previously, per Forbes’ billionaires index. [27]
Separately, Reuters reported that Tesla’s board made more than $3 billion through stock awards, according to an analysis for Reuters by compensation and governance specialist Equilar—another reminder that governance scrutiny is a persistent background theme for TSLA. [28]
What matters most for TSLA next: the catalyst calendar investors are watching
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Tesla stock is trading like a company with two clocks:
- The quarterly clock (deliveries, margins, near-term demand).
- The platform clock (robotaxi, autonomy, Optimus, AI compute, energy scale).
Here are the key near-term events likely to move Tesla shares:
- Q4 Deliveries (expected Jan. 2, 2026) — a high-volatility print given the emerging “below-consensus” narrative. [29]
- Regulatory developments from the new NHTSA Model 3 door release investigation—especially if it escalates beyond an initial probe. [30]
- Robotaxi progress signals — expansion pace, safety-monitor removal, and any jurisdictional permitting milestones, which can shift valuation models fast. [31]
- Europe and U.S. demand data — whether Tesla stabilizes registrations/sales after a rough autumn and post-subsidy adjustment. [32]
The Tesla stock bottom line on Dec. 24, 2025
Tesla stock is sitting in a familiar Tesla paradox: the core EV business is under visible pressure in multiple markets, yet the equity is priced for an autonomy-and-AI future that investors increasingly treat as inevitable.
Today’s NHTSA probe adds another thread of regulatory risk, while delivery forecasts suggest Q4 could disappoint consensus. At the same time, Tesla’s robotaxi testing headlines—and the broader robotaxi “race” playing out across major U.S. cities—keep feeding the market’s willingness to pay up for long-term optionality. [33]
That’s why TSLA can trade like a software platform one day and like a cyclical automaker the next. The stock is not just a price chart—it’s a referendum on whether Tesla can turn autonomy into durable, regulated, scalable business reality.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.acea.auto, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.businessinsider.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
