Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is back in the spotlight on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as investors head into the holidays with a fresh wave of analyst calls, tariff-related headlines, and a renewed debate over whether Costco’s “rare” 2025 underperformance is a warning sign—or a setup for a rebound.
In a shortened Christmas Eve trading session (U.S. markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET), Costco shares were trading around the high-$860s to low-$870s range in mid-morning updates, after opening with modest gains. New York Stock Exchange+2Finviz+2
Below is a comprehensive look at the latest Costco stock news, forecasts, and analyses as of Dec. 24, 2025—including the catalyst moving the stock today, what Wall Street expects next, and the key risks and milestones to watch into 2026.
Costco stock today: price action and the holiday trading backdrop
Costco stock was indicated around $871 in Dec. 24 pricing updates, after a prior close near $855, with an intraday range reported roughly between the high-$850s and low-$870s. Investing.com+1
The broader market context matters today because liquidity is thin. Reuters described Wall Street as hovering near record levels in a shortened Christmas Eve session, with lighter volumes typical of the holiday stretch. Reuters
That combination—thin trading plus a high-profile analyst move—can make even “defensive” megacaps like Costco swing more than usual over a few hours.
The big catalyst on Dec. 24: Northcoast upgrades Costco to “Buy” with a $1,100 price target
The most market-moving Costco-specific headline on Dec. 24 is an analyst upgrade:
- Northcoast Research upgraded Costco to “Buy” from “Neutral”
- Price target: $1,100
This call was carried by MT Newswires/MarketScreener and echoed by multiple market-summary feeds. MarketScreener+1
At around $871 per share, a $1,100 target implies roughly 26% upside (before dividends), which is meaningful for a mega-cap retailer that many investors treat as a core, lower-volatility holding. Investing.com+1
Why the upgrade matters: Costco’s stock performance in 2025 has frustrated many bulls. Operationally, the company has continued to post strong sales growth and steady execution. But valuation and macro concerns have pressured the multiple, setting up a year where the business looked better than the stock.
Costco’s fundamentals: strong quarter, but investors stayed picky
The latest earnings snapshot (reported Dec. 11, 2025)
In Costco’s most recent quarterly report (its fiscal first quarter, ended Nov. 23, 2025), Reuters reported:
- Revenue:$67.31 billion (above estimates)
- EPS:$4.50 (above estimates)
- Same-store sales ex-gas:+6.4%, topping consensus expectations
- Commentary highlighted Costco’s value proposition across income levels amid economic uncertainty
- Costco also cited benefits from its same-day delivery partnerships—including Instacart in the U.S. and Uber Eats and DoorDash internationally Reuters
Despite that beat, the stock reaction was muted to negative immediately after results—an example of how Costco’s 2025 narrative has often been less about “Can they execute?” and more about “How much is already priced in?”
A key detail: digital strength and membership fee momentum
Investopedia’s follow-on analysis emphasized that Costco’s quarter showed a surge in digital performance and membership fee gains, even as the stock lagged the broader market this year. Investopedia
And Nasdaq (via Zacks) highlighted the longer-running membership engine behind the model:
- Membership fee income rising sharply in fiscal 2025 (including the impact of prior fee changes)
- Paid memberships and executive-member mix improving over time
- Some softening in renewal metrics—important, but not necessarily alarming at this stage Nasdaq
This matters for investors because Costco’s membership fees are often viewed as the company’s “profit core,” helping subsidize low pricing while reinforcing loyalty.
Tariffs are a real Costco storyline now: shelf shifts and a legal push for potential refunds
Two separate but related developments have kept tariffs in the Costco stock conversation:
1) Costco’s merchandise mix is adapting to tariffs
The Wall Street Journal reported Costco made targeted holiday assortment changes to manage tariff pressures—reducing exposure in some imported categories (like certain holiday items) while leaning into other categories, all with the goal of protecting value perception for members. Wall Street Journal
For investors, this is less about Christmas trees and more about what Costco is signaling: a willingness to protect the brand promise even if it means adjusting the mix—and absorbing or mitigating costs rather than reflexively passing them through.
2) Costco sued the U.S. government to preserve tariff refund rights
Reuters previously reported (Dec. 1, 2025) that Costco sued the U.S. government in the Court of International Trade to protect its ability to seek refunds if the Supreme Court ultimately rejects the administration’s tariff authority claims tied to emergency powers. Reuters noted Costco described legal uncertainty and customs timing issues that could impact refund eligibility, and said it has taken steps like reducing suppliers and leaning more on local sourcing and Kirkland. Reuters+1
This lawsuit is unusual for a retailer of Costco’s scale, and it adds a new “event-driven” thread to what is typically a fundamentals-driven stock.
Costco stock forecast: what analysts are projecting heading into 2026
Analyst forecasts for Costco remain broadly constructive, but with a notable split between “premium compounder” believers and valuation skeptics.
Consensus price targets (high-level)
As of Dec. 24:
- Investing.com data indicated an average 12‑month price target around $1,031.50, with a high estimate near $1,205 and a low estimate near $650, and an overall Buy-leaning analyst distribution. Investing.com
- MarketBeat’s consensus view showed an average target around the high-$900s, with the usual caveat that published “lows” can include stale or outlier entries. MarketBeat
In practical terms: Wall Street’s “center of gravity” implies mid-teens to high-teens upside for COST over the next year—assuming the multiple holds and execution remains steady.
Notable recent analyst actions (December 2025)
A cluster of price target updates followed Costco’s Dec. 11 earnings report. Investing.com summarized several prominent stances, including:
- Bernstein raising its target to $1,146 (Outperform)
- Goldman Sachs reiterating Buy with a target around $1,171
- BofA Securities maintaining Buy with a target around $1,095
- Telsey Advisory Group reiterating Outperform with $1,100
- Mizuho staying Neutral with $950, framing results as more of a modest beat with some expense considerations Investing.com
On the cautious side, Wells Fargo moved the other direction:
- Wells Fargo lowered Costco’s price target to $900 from $1,000, keeping an Equal Weight rating and pointing to a more mixed sector outlook into 2026. TipRanks
And now, on Dec. 24, Northcoast adds fuel to the bullish camp with its $1,100 Buy call. MarketScreener
The valuation debate sits at the center
Even bulls often concede Costco is “expensive for a retailer.” Nasdaq/Zacks cited a forward P/E in the mid‑40s range, underscoring how much of Costco’s quality is already reflected in the price. Nasdaq
That’s why Costco can beat on revenue and EPS and still see a muted stock reaction: the bar is high.
The bull case for COST into 2026: why some see a re‑acceleration setup
A reasonable bullish thesis for Costco stock heading into 2026 typically centers on four pillars:
1) The membership engine remains resilient
Membership economics are Costco’s defining feature. Growth in paid memberships, executive penetration, and fee income tends to support predictable cash generation over time—even if retail margins remain intentionally slim. Nasdaq
2) Value matters in uncertain macro environments
Reuters described consumers “stretching their dollar” and trading down—an environment that historically supports warehouse clubs and value retailers. Reuters
Holiday spending data from Visa and Mastercard also pointed to continued retail demand through late December (even if consumers are selective), supporting the idea that traffic leaders can keep winning share. Reuters
3) Digital and delivery partnerships are maturing
Costco’s delivery ecosystem is no longer an “experiment,” with Reuters specifically calling out partnerships with Instacart in the U.S. and Uber Eats/DoorDash internationally. Reuters
4) Store growth continues—without the vibe of overexpansion
Many mature retailers are cautious about square footage growth. Costco, by contrast, continues to add warehouses and expand internationally, which can support steady top-line expansion if execution holds.
The bear case: what could keep Costco stock capped
Even with strong fundamentals, several real risks can limit returns:
1) Premium valuation leaves less room for error
When a stock trades at a premium multiple, it doesn’t take an operational problem to disappoint—sometimes it just takes “great, not spectacular.”
2) Tariffs and cost pressures can distort the model
Costco’s brand promise is low prices and high trust. Tariff pressure tests that promise. The company is responding with sourcing changes, supplier consolidation, private label leverage, and assortment shifts—but it’s still a headwind investors must monitor. Reuters+1
3) Membership renewal rates deserve monitoring
Zacks/Nasdaq pointed to slight renewal-rate easing in recent reporting, with management attributing some pressure to shifts in signup mix and promotions. It’s not a thesis-breaker, but it’s a metric that matters. Nasdaq
4) Competition is heating up in key markets
Walmart and other large retailers continue to intensify “value + convenience” competition. Meanwhile, Costco’s warehouse-club peer BJ’s is actively expanding—MySA reported a significant push into Texas markets, a region where Costco has been a strong presence. MySA
What to watch next for Costco investors
If you’re tracking Costco stock into early 2026, these are the practical signposts that tend to move the narrative:
- Comparable sales updates (especially ex-gas and ex-FX)
- Membership trends: paid member growth, executive mix, renewal rates
- Traffic vs. ticket: are shoppers buying more units or just paying more?
- Tariff developments: legal timetable headlines and any changes in sourcing strategy
- Gross margin and SG&A discipline: Costco’s operating margin is thin by design; cost control still matters
- Broader market regime: 2026 expectations include earnings growth and rate-cut trajectories, which can materially affect valuation multiples across the market Reuters
Bottom line: Costco stock enters 2026 with a catalyst—but the multiple still sets the rules
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Costco stock is being pulled by two competing forces:
- Fundamentals and analyst optimism (earnings beats, strong comps, membership strength, and today’s Northcoast upgrade) Reuters+1
- Valuation and macro uncertainty (tariff dynamics, cautious consumers, and a premium multiple that demands near-flawless execution) Reuters+2Nasdaq+2
For long-term investors, the key question is less “Can Costco keep comping mid-single digits?” and more “Can Costco do it in a way that expands investor willingness to pay a premium multiple again?”
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
