Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is entering the Christmas break with a familiar mix of momentum and controversy: a sky-high valuation story tied to autonomy, robotics, and energy storage—colliding with another round of safety scrutiny and ongoing questions about vehicle demand.
Because U.S. markets are closed on Thursday, December 25, 2025, there’s no new trading action in TSLA today. The latest price discovery comes from Wednesday’s holiday-shortened session (Dec. 24)—and it arrived just as regulators opened a new investigation into Tesla’s emergency door release design. [1]
Below is a full, publication-ready roundup of the most current Tesla stock news, forecasts, and analyst analysis available as of Dec. 25, 2025—including what’s driving headlines, what Wall Street expects next, and which catalysts could matter most into early 2026.
Tesla stock price today: Where TSLA stands on Christmas Day 2025
With the NYSE closed for Christmas (and having closed early on Christmas Eve), Tesla stock’s most recent tape is from Dec. 24. [2]
- Last traded price: about $485.40 (Dec. 24 close/last)
- Day range: roughly $476.89 to $490.68
- Volume: about 41.3 million shares
- 52-week high: about $498.83, keeping the market’s “$500 level” obsession very much alive [3]
That last point matters. Around round-number levels like $500, price action can get weird—not because round numbers have magical properties, but because humans, headlines, and options positioning tend to cluster there. (Markets: where math meets psychology and both lose a little dignity.)
The headline moving TSLA: NHTSA opens a defect petition into Model 3 emergency door releases
The biggest Tesla stock headline feeding into Dec. 25 is a new U.S. safety investigation focused on emergency egress—specifically, whether occupants can find and use the manual door release if power is lost in a crash.
What the government opened—and what it covers
NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation opened Defect Petition DP25002 on December 23, 2025, covering an estimated 179,071 model-year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles. [4]
The ODI resume states the core allegation clearly: the mechanical door release is “hidden, unlabeled, and not intuitive to locate during an emergency.” [5]
NHTSA’s initial resume also tallies one incident associated with the issue (including a crash/fire and injury indicators) in its early summary table. [6]
Why this matters to investors
A key nuance: opening a defect petition does not automatically mean a recall. Reuters notes it’s the first step in a review process that could lead to further action if a safety defect is confirmed. [7]
But markets don’t wait for final paperwork. Reports tied to the probe said TSLA dipped on the news during the Dec. 24 session, reflecting the usual “regulatory headline = risk premium” reaction that follows Tesla around like a persistent shadow. [8]
Why Tesla’s doors keep becoming a stock catalyst
Tesla’s door design choices—electronic latches and minimalist controls—are part of its brand identity. They’re also part of why safety regulators and consumer advocates keep circling back.
Reuters emphasizes that Tesla vehicles rely primarily on electronic door latches (opened via buttons rather than conventional mechanical handles), with manual releases intended for emergencies or power failures—yet critics argue those mechanical backups aren’t consistently obvious, especially for rear-seat passengers. [9]
This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Recent reporting (summarizing a Bloomberg investigation) said Tesla doors that don’t open post-crash have been associated with fatal incidents, and that Tesla has drawn an unusually high share of complaints tied to operability after collisions. [10]
And the scrutiny is broader than the Model 3 petition: Reuters also notes NHTSA previously opened a preliminary evaluation into about 174,290 Model Y vehicles over reports of electronic door handles becoming inoperative. [11]
For Tesla stock, the market question is less “Will this be a recall tomorrow?” and more: Does the accumulation of investigations increase the probability of forced design changes, reputational damage, litigation expense, or sales friction—especially as competition intensifies?
Regulatory overhang beyond doors: NHTSA’s FSD investigation is still in the background
The “regulators vs. Tesla” storyline in late 2025 isn’t only about doors.
In October 2025, Reuters reported NHTSA opened an investigation into about 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (Supervised/Beta), reviewing reports that included alleged traffic-safety law violations (and a set of crashes and injuries referenced by the agency). [12]
Even if separate investigations never directly change near-term earnings, they can still matter for valuation—because Tesla’s premium narrative depends heavily on autonomy and software credibility.
The next major TSLA catalyst: Q4 deliveries (and the “post-subsidy hangover” thesis)
If you want a single date that could jolt TSLA in the first week of 2026, it’s this:
Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter deliveries on January 2 (per analyst commentary summarized by Investing.com). [13]
What analysts are forecasting now
A recent analyst roundup said:
- New Street Research expects ~415,000 to 435,000 Q4 deliveries vs. a consensus around ~440,000. [14]
- UBS forecast ~415,000 deliveries, around 5% below the Visible Alpha consensus referenced in the note. [15]
The big claimed driver: a pull-forward effect from U.S. incentives that expired at the end of September, followed by what one analyst described as a normalization “air pocket” in U.S. volumes. [16]
Why deliveries still matter—even in an “AI-first” narrative
Here’s the tension animating Tesla stock right now:
- Bears/neutral analysts argue deliveries and auto margins still anchor reality—Tesla’s biggest revenue stream is still cars, and valuation can’t float forever on optionality.
- Bulls argue the market increasingly treats deliveries as a side quest, focusing instead on robotaxi progress, Optimus, and AI.
That debate is explicit in analyst commentary noting the market’s attention shifting toward robotaxi and humanoid robotics developments. [17]
Europe and competition check: Tesla registrations are falling as rivals grow
While U.S. delivery timing is the near-term catalyst, Tesla’s longer-term narrative is being stress-tested in Europe.
Reuters reported that in November, Tesla registrations plunged in multiple key European markets year-over-year—while rising in a few (notably Norway and Italy), highlighting how uneven Tesla’s regional picture has become. [18]
And in broader Europe-wide data for November (EU + UK + EFTA), Reuters reported:
- Tesla registrations fell 11.8%
- BYD registrations rose 221.8%
- Tesla’s market share in the month was about 2.1% (roughly in line with BYD at ~2% in that dataset) [19]
For TSLA valuation, this matters because a “Tesla-as-automaker” model becomes harder to defend if unit growth is structurally pressured—especially when Chinese and legacy automakers expand model variety and compete aggressively on price.
A quieter bullish thread: Tesla Energy and the first Megablock deployment
If Tesla’s car business is the loud drama, Tesla Energy is increasingly the subplot investors are trying to promote to main-character status.
On Dec. 23, pv magazine reported Neoen Australia began construction of a 226 MW / 866 MWh battery project in South Australia expected to feature Tesla’s Megablock technology—described as the first deployment of that architecture. [20]
The report explains Megablock as a pre-engineered, plug-and-play unit combining four Megapack 3 systems into a 20 MWh block, with Tesla claiming faster installation and lower construction costs versus previous systems. [21]
Separately, a recent investor analysis argued Tesla’s Energy segment—driven by grid-scale storage (including Megablock) and data-center-driven demand—could increasingly decouple Tesla’s profitability from auto cyclicality, while also warning that auto margin compression remains a core risk. [22]
Whether you buy that thesis or not, energy is becoming a recurring reason bulls cite for why Tesla can be “more than an automaker” in a way that’s less speculative than humanoid robots.
Tesla stock forecast: Analyst price targets are still wildly split
If you’re looking for a single “Wall Street agrees TSLA is worth X” number… you won’t find one. Tesla stock remains one of the most polarized large-cap names on the Street.
What consensus trackers are showing
- MarketBeat lists Tesla with a consensus “Hold” and an average price target around $414.50, while also showing a wide mix of Buy/Hold/Sell ratings in its compiled tally. [23]
- Nasdaq, citing Fintel data, showed an average one-year price target of $389.25 (as of Dec. 21, 2025), with an extremely wide range between low and high estimates. [24]
- Investopedia summarized Visible Alpha-tracked analyst ratings as roughly split between buys and non-buys, with an average target around $400 that implied downside versus recent prices at the time of writing. [25]
The “high target” bull case
Investopedia also noted:
- Mizuho lifted a price target to $530 (from $475), citing improving self-driving capability. [26]
- Wedbush reiterated a Street-high target of $600, framing Tesla as an AI/autonomy and robotics story heading into 2026. [27]
This split is the Tesla stock story in miniature: the company can look overpriced through a traditional auto lens and simultaneously look underpriced if you treat autonomy + software + energy as the real product.
Elon Musk headlines still move sentiment—whether investors like it or not
Tesla’s CEO remains a volatility engine.
Pay package reversal: a governance milestone (and a signal)
In late December, Reuters reported the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Musk’s Tesla stock options tied to his 2018 package, after a lower court had voided it—driving major headlines about governance and compensation. [28]
The Associated Press similarly reported the reversal restored a pay package valued at $55 billion in prior framing, and noted Tesla’s earlier decision to reincorporate in Texas after the Delaware ruling controversy. [29]
“Mission wording” tweak: small change, big attention
On Dec. 25, Business Insider reported Musk posted about making a “joyful” edit to Tesla’s “mission wording” in its strategic document, swapping “sustainable abundance” for “amazing abundance.” [30]
In isolation, that’s not a fundamental catalyst. But it illustrates a recurring Tesla-market dynamic: narrative, branding, and Musk-driven communication are part of the stock’s daily information flow—for better or worse.
What TSLA investors are watching next
With markets reopening after Christmas, Tesla stock heads into year-end with several near-term pressure points and catalysts:
- Regulatory path on DP25002: Whether NHTSA escalates beyond the defect petition stage—and how Tesla responds if asked for design changes. [31]
- Q4 deliveries on Jan. 2: A potential volatility spike if deliveries miss (or beat) expectations and if commentary reframes 2026 demand assumptions. [32]
- Europe demand and competitive intensity: Continued registration weakness would reinforce the “auto business lags” narrative, even if Tesla Energy offsets some sentiment. [33]
- Energy execution: Whether Megablock/Megapack scale translates into sustained margins and earnings contribution meaningful enough to shift the valuation debate. [34]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 25, 2025, Tesla stock sits at the intersection of three forces:
- Regulatory scrutiny that can trigger sharp headline-driven moves (doors now, autonomy always),
- A near-term delivery and margin debate that hasn’t gone away—even if the market sometimes pretends it has, and
- A long-duration “Tesla as AI + energy infrastructure” narrative that keeps valuation elevated and analyst targets scattered.
TSLA can rally hard if investors stay focused on autonomy, robotics, and energy scale. It can also reprice quickly if deliveries disappoint, regulators escalate, or macro conditions compress high-multiple growth stocks. The only stable thing in Tesla-land is that stability is not on the menu
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. static.nhtsa.gov, 5. static.nhtsa.gov, 6. static.nhtsa.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.caranddriver.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.pv-magazine.com, 21. www.pv-magazine.com, 22. seekingalpha.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.businessinsider.com, 31. static.nhtsa.gov, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.pv-magazine.com
