U.S. equity markets are closed today, Thursday, December 25, for Christmas, which means there’s no “closing bell” session to react to fresh headlines. Instead, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) investors are heading into Friday’s reopen (December 26) digesting the last trading action from the holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session—and a cluster of analyst commentary and valuation debates that surfaced on December 25. [1]
Costco stock price check: where COST stands “after hours”
Because the market didn’t trade today (Dec. 25), the most current pricing is still tied to Wednesday, Dec. 24:
- Regular session close (Dec. 24, early close at 1:00 p.m. ET):$871.86, up $17.07 (+2.00%)
- After-hours (Dec. 24, ~4:59 p.m. ET):$872.50, up $0.64 (+0.07%) [2]
In that shortened session, COST traded between $858.35 and $876.00, a fairly wide intraday range for a mega-cap retailer—particularly in holiday-thinned conditions. [3]
The broader market backdrop matters: “Santa rally” mood, thin liquidity
Costco’s move didn’t happen in a vacuum. On Dec. 24, U.S. stocks broadly pushed higher in a light-volume, holiday-shortened session, with the Dow and S&P 500 notching record closes—classic “Santa rally” conditions where relatively small flows can move prices more than usual. Reuters also noted U.S. markets were shut on Dec. 25 for Christmas. [4]
That context is important heading into Friday, Dec. 26, because reopening sessions after a holiday can bring:
- catch-up positioning,
- delayed reactions to research notes,
- and sometimes exaggerated moves—especially early in the day—until liquidity normalizes.
Today’s key Costco stock news (Dec. 25): Northcoast turns bullish
The most notable Costco-specific catalyst circulating in “today’s” coverage is an analyst upgrade from Northcoast Research, which moved COST from Hold/Neutral to Strong Buy, alongside a $1,100 price target (as summarized across multiple market outlets and analyst aggregators). [5]
Why this matters into Friday’s open:
- The upgrade effectively reframes COST as a “high-conviction” idea again (at least from this shop), after a 2025 period where the stock has been widely discussed as fundamentally strong but valuation-constrained.
- The $1,100 target sits meaningfully above the current ~$872 area, giving bulls a clean headline number to anchor on—especially in a quiet news window. [6]
COST forecast: what Wall Street price targets imply right now
With Costco around the high-$800s, investors are watching whether targets still justify upside from here.
One widely-followed analyst compilation shows:
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average 12-month price target:$1,054 (implying roughly +20.85% upside from the referenced price)
- Range:$769 (low) to $1,225 (high) [7]
In plain terms: the Street, on average, still sees upside—but the spread between the low and high target also signals real disagreement about what multiple Costco deserves from here.
Two “fresh” valuation takes published today: Trefis vs. Simply Wall St
December 25 also brought two publish-date-tied analysis pieces that investors may see in Discover-style feeds:
Trefis: modest upside case, catalyst-driven framing
Trefis published a Dec. 25 note arguing Costco could have upside if certain growth catalysts accelerate—highlighting themes such as international expansion, digital/e-commerce personalization, and the development of a retail media network—while also flagging risks like competition and margin pressures. Trefis’ framing shows a “market” level around $872 versus a Trefis value around $923 (about +5.9%). [8]
Simply Wall St: brand expansion + capital returns, higher “fair value” model
Simply Wall St’s Dec. 25 narrative connected Costco’s recent fundamentals with a consumer-brand development: Sports Research expanding to 10 products nationwide at Costco. It also emphasized Costco’s earnings base and capital returns, citing completion of a $2.25 billion share repurchase program initiated in January 2023. The piece points to a model-driven fair value around $1,056 (presented as ~21% upside in that framework). [9]
Takeaway: today’s analysis “ecosystem” is split between (a) incremental upside with catalysts (Trefis) and (b) a more optimistic fair-value model (Simply Wall St). That spread often translates into choppy trading when the market is looking for direction—because it signals the stock is no longer “obviously cheap” or “obviously expensive” to everyone at the same time.
The fundamental backdrop: Costco’s latest quarter was strong
While Dec. 25 itself didn’t bring a new Costco earnings release, the most recent official results remain the anchor for any near-term COST thesis.
Costco reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (12 weeks ended Nov. 23, 2025) showing:
- Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Total revenue:$67.31B
- Net income:$2.001B
- Diluted EPS:$4.50
- Comparable sales (total company):+6.4%
- Digitally-enabled comparable sales:+20.5% [10]
Those numbers help explain why Costco continues to trade like a premium defensive compounder: steady comps, strong digital growth, and durable profitability—despite retail’s perpetual cost pressures.
Costco also disclosed it operated 923 warehouses at the time of that report, underscoring the ongoing store-base expansion story that many analysts cite when defending the valuation. [11]
Sales trend signal investors keep watching: November results
Costco also released a monthly-style sales update earlier in December that remains relevant as the market gauges holiday demand:
- November net sales (4 weeks ended Nov. 30, 2025):$23.64B, up 8.1% year over year
- Total company comparable sales (4 weeks):+6.9%
- Digitally-enabled comps (4 weeks):+16.6% [12]
That’s not a December holiday read-through by itself—but it frames the trajectory heading into the peak season.
What Reuters highlighted in the last earnings cycle: value positioning + delivery partnerships
Reuters’ write-up of Costco’s December earnings beat emphasized several themes that investors still care about heading into 2026:
- consumers leaning into value and affordable essentials,
- Costco’s Kirkland Signature private label appeal,
- and delivery partnerships (including Instacart in the U.S., plus UberEats and DoorDash internationally) helping support demand. [13]
If COST moves sharply on Friday, expect the narrative to snap back to these: “membership model + value + traffic + digital.”
The underappreciated overhang: tariffs and sourcing risk
One risk factor that can re-enter the conversation quickly—especially in headline-driven sessions—is trade policy and tariffs.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Costco sued the U.S. government to preserve potential tariff refunds tied to legal uncertainty around tariff authority, while also noting Costco has been taking steps to address tariff pressures (including supplier rationalization, local sourcing, and reliance on Kirkland). [14]
Why this matters before Friday’s open:
- Retail margins are sensitive to import costs.
- Any tariff-related court updates, trade headlines, or “cost pass-through” commentary can swing sentiment even without new Costco-specific filings.
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 26)
With today’s holiday pause, Friday can feel like a reset. Here are the practical “watch items” for COST into the reopen:
1) Confirm the calendar and expect a normal session on Dec. 26
Major U.S. exchanges are expected to run a full regular trading day on December 26 (after the early close on Dec. 24 and the holiday closure on Dec. 25). [15]
2) Watch whether the Northcoast upgrade actually moves flows
Upgrades don’t always move mega-cap stocks—but in thin holiday tape, they can. Key tells in the first hour:
- Does COST gap up meaningfully above the ~$872 after-hours reference?
- Does it hold the move, or fade as liquidity improves?
- Do other analysts publish follow-on notes agreeing or pushing back?
The market already has a wide target range on COST, so confirmation (or skepticism) can matter. [16]
3) Know the “easy” technical reference points traders will cite
Even long-term investors should know what short-term traders are likely watching:
- Dec. 24 high: ~$876
- Dec. 24 low: ~$858
- Recent support zone: mid-$850s (multiple closes nearby) [17]
If COST breaks and holds above $876 early Friday, the conversation will shift toward “reclaiming momentum.” If it loses $858–$855, headlines may frame the move as “holiday pop fades.”
4) Re-center on fundamentals: comps and membership economics
The next big “fundamental proof points” investors typically emphasize are:
- comparable sales,
- digital growth,
- and membership fee income durability.
Costco’s most recent quarter showed 6.4% total comps and 20.5% digitally-enabled comps, which remain hard numbers that tend to support the premium narrative. [18]
5) Keep one eye on the next earnings waypoint
One widely cited earnings-calendar estimate pegs Costco’s next report around March 5, 2026 (after market close), based on historical patterns (with the reminder that Costco itself may not have confirmed yet). [19]
That’s not “tomorrow’s” catalyst—but it shapes positioning: the market will slowly start discounting what Q2 could look like, especially as holiday demand data filters into retail.
Bottom line for Dec. 25: COST enters Friday with bullish headlines—but valuation debate still drives the trade
Costco stock is heading into the Dec. 26 open with three forces in tension:
- Bullish catalyst (today): the Northcoast upgrade and $1,100 target, which can support sentiment into a quiet tape. [20]
- Strong fundamentals (still current): high-single-digit sales growth, positive comps, and standout digital metrics in the latest quarter. [21]
- Ongoing pushback risk: premium valuation sensitivity, plus macro/tariff headlines that can reprice retail margins quickly. [22]
If you’re watching COST into Friday morning, the cleanest checklist is: how it opens vs. ~$872, whether volume confirms the move, and whether the market treats today’s upgrade as a one-day headline—or a reason to rebuild a longer-term position.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.trefis.com, 9. simplywall.st, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. investor.costco.com, 12. investor.costco.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. investor.costco.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. investor.costco.com, 22. www.reuters.com
