December 26, 2025 (26.12.2025) — Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the spotlight in a thin, post-holiday trading week, with investors weighing two competing narratives: fresh regulatory scrutiny tied to the Model 3, and renewed optimism that Tesla’s autonomy and AI roadmap could re-rate the company beyond “just an automaker.” [1]
At the time of writing, the U.S. regular session is still underway (the 4:00 p.m. ET closing bell hasn’t happened yet), meaning the true “after-the-bell” reaction will come later today. Still, today’s news flow has already laid out the catalysts most likely to drive post-market headlines and set the tone for the next trading session.
TSLA price action today: where Tesla stock stands heading toward the close
In early trading on Friday, Tesla shares were slightly higher, trading around $486 and up modestly versus the prior close, with a tight intraday range—consistent with the holiday-thinned tape across U.S. markets. [2]
For context on liquidity: multiple market reports flagged light volume and subdued participation coming out of the Christmas holiday, which can amplify price moves if a headline hits (especially for megacaps like Tesla). [3]
Key takeaway: Tesla’s day-to-day moves late in December can be more headline-sensitive than usual, because fewer participants are around to absorb bursts of buying or selling.
The headline risk investors are watching: NHTSA opens a probe into Model 3 emergency door releases
The most consequential regulatory development in Tesla’s orbit this week is a U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) defect investigation into the 2022 Tesla Model 3, focused on whether the mechanical emergency door release is sufficiently accessible and clearly identifiable—especially in urgent scenarios. [4]
Reuters reported the probe stems from a defect petition alleging the emergency release mechanisms are “hidden” and “unlabeled,” and that they can be difficult to locate quickly—particularly for rear-seat passengers. Importantly, it’s not an immediate recall, but it can lead to regulatory action depending on what investigators find. [5]
Mainstream outlets continued to amplify the story into today’s news cycle, reinforcing that this is not a one-and-done headline—exactly the kind of issue that can resurface after the bell if new details emerge. [6]
What to watch after the bell: any Tesla statement, NHTSA document update, or follow-on reporting that clarifies scope, remedy options, or timelines.
The bullish counterweight: Tesla is leaning hard into the robotaxi and AI story
While regulators scrutinize vehicle design and safety questions, Tesla’s bull case into year-end 2025 remains anchored to autonomy.
Two themes dominated today’s analysis pieces:
1) A robotaxi “deadline” moment
Investor’s Business Daily reported Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have ramped up robotaxi/FSD messaging as Musk’s end-of-2025 timeline approaches for removing “safety monitors” from Model Y robotaxi operations in Austin. The article described a stream of demonstrations and promotional pushes that investors are treating as a potential catalyst—if Tesla shows credible progress. [7]
2) Tesla’s market story is shifting from EV sales to AI optionality
A MarketWatch analysis framed Tesla’s strong investor confidence late in 2025 as driven primarily by its AI and autonomy ambitions—despite execution risk and delays. It noted Tesla’s robotaxi network launched in Austin earlier this year and has operated in Austin and the Bay Area with supervised vehicles, while expansion has progressed more slowly than the most aggressive expectations. [8]
MarketWatch also highlighted a data point that matters for monetization: Full Self-Driving adoption remains relatively low (the piece cited about 12% usage), suggesting Tesla may need either product breakthroughs, broader regulatory clearance, or a clearer value proposition to materially expand paid uptake. [9]
Why this matters for TSLA after-hours: Autonomy headlines can move the stock quickly, and the market often reacts most strongly when it perceives a change in probability—i.e., “robotaxi is coming soon” vs. “robotaxi is still supervised and limited.”
Forecasts driving the next major TSLA catalyst: deliveries are coming fast
For many Tesla traders, the next hard-number event risk is Tesla’s Q4 vehicle deliveries report, typically released in early January.
IBD flagged expectations that Tesla is likely to report Q4 deliveries around January 2, 2026, and cited forecasts pointing to a year-over-year decline in deliveries for the quarter and for 2025 overall. [10]
That delivery setup is important because it creates a near-term tension:
- Bear case: softer deliveries reinforce the “core EV business is under pressure” narrative.
- Bull case: investors may look past deliveries if they believe robotaxi/FSD/AI milestones are progressing—and if the broader market remains risk-on.
Wall Street is split: price targets and delivery estimates diverge sharply
Tesla’s valuation debate is unusually wide right now, and the range of forecasts reflects that.
Delivery forecasts: “soft quarter” vs. “priced in”
- UBS reiterated a Sell stance and reduced its Q4 delivery forecast to about 415,000 vehicles, citing a softer demand setup after incentive changes, and noting buy-side expectations in a similar range. [11]
- Meanwhile, other commentary has pointed to consensus-style expectations closer to the mid-to-high 400,000s, reinforcing that the “whisper number” is not uniform. [12]
Price targets: from deeply bearish to highly bullish
- IBD cited Canaccord cutting its Q4 delivery estimate but raising its price target (a common pattern in Tesla coverage lately: down near-term autos, up long-term AI optionality). [13]
- The same IBD piece also noted Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood continues to model dramatic upside scenarios driven by autonomy—highlighting how much of the Tesla bull case depends on robotaxi execution. [14]
- On the cautious side, UBS’s $247 target illustrates how some analysts believe the stock price has run well ahead of near-term fundamentals. [15]
Investor implication: When credible forecasts diverge this much, TSLA can whip around on relatively small news changes because the market is effectively arguing over what business Tesla will be in—and how soon.
What to know before the next market open
A quick calendar note: U.S. markets are closed Saturday and Sunday, so the next U.S. opening bell after today is Monday, December 29, 2025.
Here’s the checklist traders and long-term investors are most likely to focus on before that next open:
1) Any update on the NHTSA probe
This is the cleanest “headline-to-stock” risk in the near term. Look for:
- additional reporting about the petition,
- whether NHTSA expands the scope,
- whether Tesla comments publicly. [16]
2) Robotaxi milestone credibility
Markets are watching whether Tesla can show credible progress toward reducing or removing safety monitoring in Austin, and whether the company’s communications align with what’s actually deployed. [17]
3) Delivery expectations into early January
Whether investors “care” about deliveries depends on the tape—but the number can still move the stock sharply because positioning is often heavy into the print. [18]
4) Macro backdrop: risk appetite is still a big driver of megacap tech
Reuters’ week-ahead market coverage emphasized that indexes are near record territory into year-end, with investors watching the Fed’s path and upcoming signals (including Fed communications next week). Even if Tesla-specific news is quiet, broad market sentiment can still swing TSLA. [19]
5) Expect liquidity-driven moves
Multiple market reports highlighted that post-holiday sessions can be low-volume and choppy. That environment can exaggerate reactions to both bullish and bearish Tesla headlines. [20]
Bottom line for TSLA into the close and after-hours
Tesla is entering the back half of the session with two powerful forces tugging in opposite directions:
- Regulatory pressure via the Model 3 door release investigation (a concrete, near-term headline risk). [21]
- Autonomy optimism driven by robotaxi/FSD messaging and the broader AI narrative (a longer-duration valuation driver that can still spark sharp short-term moves). [22]
If you’re watching TSLA “after the bell” tonight, the most practical approach is to monitor (1) any new NHTSA developments, (2) any Tesla robotaxi/FSD updates, and (3) how the broader market tone holds into the final week of 2025. [23]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.latimes.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investors.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investors.com, 23. www.reuters.com
