New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (as of 1:39 p.m. ET): Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are trading around $478.65, down about 1.4% on the session, in a post‑Christmas market that’s showing more headlines than conviction.
The broader tape looks subdued: the Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ) is near flat while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is slightly lower—classic “holiday week” behavior where fewer traders are at their desks, and individual stock moves can be more sensitive to news and positioning.
For Tesla investors, the year‑end setup is unusually high‑stakes: a looming robotaxi milestone faces off against fresh regulatory scrutiny, while delivery forecasts reflect a U.S. demand reset after the federal EV incentive deadline passed earlier this fall.
Tesla stock today: the numbers traders are watching
At mid‑day in New York, TSLA has traded between $474.18 and $488.90 with volume above 41 million shares.
That’s not panic volume—more like a tug‑of‑war: bulls are still leaning into the “Tesla-as-AI/autonomy” thesis going into 2026, while bears keep pointing to regulatory pressure and near‑term demand softness.
What’s moving Tesla shares right now
1) NHTSA opens a defect investigation into Model 3 emergency door releases
One of the most immediate headline overhangs: U.S. auto safety regulator NHTSA has opened a defect investigation into an estimated 179,071 model year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles over concerns that emergency door release controls may not be easily accessible or clearly identifiable in an emergency. [1]
Important nuance for investors: an investigation does not automatically mean a recall—but it’s the start of a process that can escalate if regulators determine the design presents a safety-related defect. Reuters also notes this issue has drawn attention amid lawsuits tied to severe crashes, adding reputational risk even before any technical remedy is required. [2]
Market impact: Regulatory headlines like this tend to matter for Tesla stock because they can (a) raise the probability of a recall or mandated changes, (b) amplify scrutiny of broader driver‑assist/autonomy messaging, and (c) hit sentiment during a period when many investors are already rebalancing for year‑end.
2) California’s “Autopilot/FSD marketing” case remains a live risk (even after a stay)
Tesla also continues to deal with regulatory pressure in its most iconic U.S. EV market.
Reuters reports the California DMV stayed a proposed suspension of Tesla’s sales license for 90 days (and its manufacturing license indefinitely), effectively giving Tesla more time to remedy concerns around marketing statements. The DMV said Tesla could avoid suspension by submitting a statement confirming it has stopped using the name “Autopilot” for its driver-assistance software or confirming its cars can operate without active human monitoring; Tesla can also appeal or seek court review by February 14. [3]
TechCrunch’s coverage of the same dispute underscores the blunt policy message behind the case: regulators are pushing Tesla to either change the branding/claims or deliver capability that matches the implication of autonomy. [4]
Why investors care: even a temporary sales disruption in California would be a headline shock. But beyond the direct sales question, the bigger market issue is whether Tesla’s autonomy narrative faces tightening constraints on how it can be marketed—right as Tesla is trying to turn that narrative into revenue.
3) The robotaxi countdown is back in the spotlight
Tesla’s autonomy storyline is doing what it always does: pulling investor attention forward into the future.
Investor’s Business Daily reports Tesla has been ramping up messaging around Full Self‑Driving (FSD) as Elon Musk’s end‑of‑year deadline approaches for removing “safety monitors” and pushing toward an unsupervised robotaxi operation in Austin. The report points to Musk and Tesla AI staff sharing rides that appear to show progress, plus Tesla promoting FSD more aggressively. [5]
MarketWatch frames the moment as a defining tension for 2026: Tesla’s robotaxi network is described as having launched in Austin earlier in 2025 in a supervised form and expanding more slowly than originally hoped, but investor enthusiasm remains high because any credible path to autonomy could change Tesla’s margin structure and total addressable market. [6]
But Tesla’s own documentation is careful about what today’s FSD is and isn’t. Tesla’s support language for Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) emphasizes that it requires the driver to remain attentive and explicitly says it does not make the vehicle autonomous. [7]
Why that matters for TSLA: the gap between (1) what’s legally/operationally deployable as “unsupervised” and (2) what is currently marketed/available as “supervised” is the gap the stock is constantly pricing. Narrowing that gap—even modestly—can move TSLA sharply. Widening it (through delays, incidents, or regulatory pushback) can do the opposite.
Deliveries: Wall Street expectations are drifting lower after the U.S. EV credit cutoff
The forecast range is wide—and that’s the story
Year‑end Tesla coverage is converging on a familiar catalyst: Q4 2025 deliveries.
IBD reports analysts have been revising estimates down, citing a range roughly in the 415,000 to 449,000 neighborhood. [8]
A separate MarketMinute piece puts the consensus closer to around 440,000, but highlights unusually wide dispersion across forecasts. [9]
When forecasts spread out like this, the market tends to react more violently to the actual print—because investors aren’t just debating “up or down,” they’re debating the shape of demand.
The EV incentive cliff is real—and now confirmed by official guidance
A major driver behind the “demand reset” narrative is the end of federal EV credits for new purchases after late September.
The IRS explicitly states that the New Clean Vehicle Credit is not available for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, 2025 (with additional details on how “acquired” and “placed in service” are treated). [10]
Tesla’s own incentives page also notes that the Inflation Reduction Act ended as of September 30, 2025, pointing readers to IRS guidance. [11]
And Tesla’s “IRA” page advertised the $7,500 credit around that September deadline (with eligibility conditions and the reminder that terms could change). [12]
Why investors care: this kind of incentive deadline can pull demand forward—meaning Q3 can look artificially strong while Q4 looks weaker, even if underlying interest is stable. Bulls argue the market normalizes after the adjustment; bears argue the adjustment reveals true price sensitivity.
Global demand and production: Europe price move + Berlin battery investment
Tesla has also been working the “classic automaker levers” (pricing and manufacturing investment) while selling the “AI/autonomy” story.
Cheaper Model 3 variant in Europe
Reuters reports Tesla launched a lower‑priced Model 3 variant in Europe, priced in Germany at €37,970, as competition intensifies and demand softens; deliveries were expected to begin in early 2026. [13]
Battery cell expansion at Gigafactory Berlin
Reuters also reports Tesla is expanding battery cell work at its German site near Berlin, aiming for up to 8 GWh of annual output beginning in 2027, with total investment in the battery cell facility reaching nearly €1 billion (about $1.2 billion). [14]
These developments matter to the stock in a very unglamorous way: pricing power, costs, and localization can dominate near‑term earnings—even when the market is busy dreaming about robotaxis.
Analyst forecasts: Tesla price targets are scattered across a football field
Tesla’s analyst landscape going into 2026 is not “slightly divided.” It is violently non‑Euclidean.
Bull case: Canaccord boosts target to $551
Investing.com reports Canaccord Genuity raised its Tesla price target to $551 from $482 while maintaining a Buy rating, emphasizing longer‑term drivers like Full Self‑Driving progress and the potential expansion of a robotaxi fleet in 2026. [15]
Bear case: UBS stays at “Sell,” $247 target
TipRanks reports UBS analyst Joseph Spak reiterated a Sell rating with a $247 target and lowered his Q4 delivery forecast to 415,000, explicitly tying weakness to demand distortions after the U.S. credit deadline. [16]
High‑conviction autonomy optimism: Wedbush reiterates $600
Investing.com separately reports Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating and a $600 target, framing 2026 as a pivotal year in Tesla’s autonomy/robotics roadmap. [17]
How to read this dispersion as an investor: when the target range runs from the mid‑$200s to $600+, it usually means the market is debating not just “earnings,” but the probability and timing of a platform shift (robotaxi + software + potentially robotics) versus Tesla remaining primarily a cyclical automaker with tightening margins.
Another factor in the background: Musk’s pay package ruling and governance optics
Tesla also got a major corporate governance headline in mid‑December.
Reuters reports the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package, now valued around $139 billion, reversing a previous decision that had rescinded it. [18]
AP similarly covered the ruling and its significance for Tesla and Musk. [19]
This matters for TSLA less because of immediate cash flow (it’s equity-based) and more because it affects governance narratives, Musk’s alignment with the company, and the legal/regulatory environment around Tesla’s public claims.
Fund flows: Cathie Wood’s ARK trims Tesla again
In a notable positioning headline, Investing.com reports Cathie Wood’s ARK funds sold 60,715 shares of Tesla on December 22 (about $29.2 million), continuing a recent trimming trend. [20]
For TSLA, this kind of flow news is rarely fundamental on its own—but it can influence short‑term sentiment because ARK is viewed as an emblematic “high‑beta growth” holder.
If you’re trading TSLA into the close (and into Monday), here’s what to know
The market is open right now (1:39 p.m. ET), but year‑end sessions can behave strangely—thin liquidity, headline sensitivity, and abrupt reversals.
Key things investors will likely focus on before the next session (Monday, Dec. 29):
- Any Tesla update on “unsupervised” capability in Austin before year‑end, and how it’s framed (operationally vs. aspirationally). [21]
- Regulatory headlines: the NHTSA door-release probe and anything further from California’s DMV on marketing remedies. [22]
- Q4 deliveries expectations: forecasts are spread, and the U.S. incentive cutoff complicates comparisons. [23]
- Official Tesla dates: Tesla’s Investor Relations page lists recent quarterly events (e.g., Q3 2025 earnings on Oct. 22), but investors are still waiting for firm scheduling and guidance tied to Q4 results. [24]
And if you’re investing (not day‑trading), the bigger question into 2026 is simple—but not easy: does Tesla convert autonomy hype into repeatable, regulated, scalable revenue, or does it remain primarily a car company with software optionality?
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. techcrunch.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.tesla.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 10. www.irs.gov, 11. www.tesla.com, 12. www.tesla.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. ir.tesla.com
