SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) heads into the weekend with investors weighing two big, competing narratives: rapid product expansion (including a high-profile crypto push) versus dilution concerns after a $1.5 billion equity raise. As of 10:45 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed—and SoFi shares are set to resume trading when Wall Street reopens on Monday, Dec. 29. [1]
SoFi stock finished the latest regular session around $27.07, down about 1.6% versus the prior close, after trading between roughly $27.04 and $27.53 on the day with volume near 24.7 million shares. [2]
Where SOFI stock stands heading into the next session
The broader tape matters for SOFI right now because late-December trading can amplify moves—both on the upside and the downside—when liquidity thins. On Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, U.S. stocks ended slightly lower in quiet, post-Christmas trading, with light volume and few catalysts, even as indexes hovered near record territory. [3]
Seasonality is also in focus. Market participants often watch the “Santa Claus rally” window—typically described as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year—for sentiment cues. [4]
One data point getting attention this year: MarketWatch cited Bespoke Investment Group as finding Dec. 26 has historically been one of the most consistently positive calendar days for the S&P 500 when markets are open, though it cautioned that seasonal trends shouldn’t be used in isolation. [5]
For SoFi specifically, 2025 has still been a strong year overall by performance metrics commonly shown on market-data pages. Yahoo Finance’s quote page lists SOFI’s year-to-date return around the mid‑70% range, while MarketWatch’s performance pane similarly shows a high‑70% YTD gain (methodologies can vary slightly across vendors). [6]
Macro backdrop: rate cuts, holiday volume, and why it matters for SoFi
SoFi is a lender, a digital bank, and a platform business. That makes it unusually sensitive to interest-rate expectations—both for its lending economics and for how growth stocks are valued.
In its Dec. 10, 2025 statement, the Federal Reserve said it lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.50%–3.75%. [7]
Recent macro headlines suggest investors remain highly data-dependent. Reuters reported that weekly jobless claims fell while continued claims rose, and noted the Fed’s current 3.50%–3.75% target range while describing the policy outlook as cautious. [8]
SoFi management has repeatedly linked its product opportunity set to the interest-rate cycle. A recap of SoFi’s Q3 earnings discussion published on Investing.com quoted CEO Anthony Noto discussing how lower rates could help parts of SoFi’s business (including areas tied to housing and borrowing activity). [9]
The biggest SOFI catalysts in late 2025: crypto returns, stablecoins, and product launches
1) SoFiUSD stablecoin: a headline-grabbing expansion
SoFi announced the launch of SoFiUSD, describing it as a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. and positioning it as infrastructure for banks, fintechs, and enterprise partners. [10]
Barron’s reported the stablecoin initiative broadened SoFi’s crypto ambitions and highlighted that SoFiUSD is intended for near-instant settlement and can support a range of use cases—from institutional settlement to consumer-facing crypto and payments over time—while also situating the move within a shifting U.S. regulatory environment. [11]
Notably, Reuters coverage earlier in the year framed SoFi’s stablecoin effort as something expected later: Reuters reported in October that Noto said a “SoFi USD stablecoin” would be coming in the first half of 2026—making the Dec. 18 SoFiUSD launch a meaningful acceleration versus that earlier timeline. [12]
2) SoFi Crypto relaunch: “back in the crypto game”
SoFi’s crypto narrative didn’t start with the stablecoin. Barron’s reported that SoFi re-entered crypto trading with “SoFi Crypto,” allowing users to buy, sell, and hold major digital assets, after having paused crypto services in 2023 amid bank charter-related constraints. [13]
Reuters also covered the company’s crypto push, reporting in November that SoFi rolled out crypto trading as demand drew lenders toward digital-asset services and stablecoin plans. [14]
3) Consumer product innovation continues: SoFi Smart Card and “one-stop shop” strategy
Outside of crypto, SoFi continues to push new consumer offerings. In a Business Wire release posted to SoFi’s investor site, the company introduced the SoFi Smart Card, marketed around grocery rewards and an interest-bearing savings angle for eligible new SoFi Plus members. [15]
This product cadence is consistent with the “one-stop shop” approach SoFi has emphasized for years, which Barron’s argued is increasingly visible in SoFi’s operating results and cross-sell metrics. [16]
Earnings and fundamentals: what the latest filings say
SoFi’s most recent reported quarter remains the foundation for many bullish theses.
In its Q3 2025 materials, SoFi reported:
- Record adjusted net revenue of $950 million (+38% YoY)
- Record adjusted EBITDA of $277 million (about a 29% margin)
- GAAP net income of $139 million
- Record quarterly loan originations of $9.9 billion
- Total deposits near $33 billion, up $3.4 billion QoQ
- 905,000 new members added in the quarter (reaching roughly 12.6 million total members) [17]
The company also highlighted growth in its Loan Platform Business, noting LPB originations increased to a record $3.4 billion in the quarter. [18]
Mainstream outlets framed the results as a profitability milestone. The Wall Street Journal reported SoFi raised its full-year outlook after Q3, pointing to accelerating membership growth, fee-based revenue, and raised profit and revenue guidance. [19]
Reuters also reported on SoFi’s raised outlook after Q3, including guidance for full-year adjusted EPS and the role of crypto initiatives in the longer-term story. [20]
The $1.5 billion stock offering: dilution risk vs. “war chest” optionality
The major bear-case headline in December has been dilution.
On Dec. 4, 2025, SoFi announced a public offering of common stock, and in a separate release said it priced 54,545,454 shares at $27.50 per share, targeting roughly $1.5 billion in gross proceeds, with the deal expected to close around Dec. 8, 2025 (subject to customary conditions). [21]
SoFi said it intended to use proceeds for general corporate purposes, including items such as enhancing capital position and funding growth opportunities. [22]
MarketWatch described the immediate market reaction as concern over dilution, noting the discount versus the prior close and the stock’s strong 2025 run into the offering. [23]
Investors.com reported that KBW analyst Tim Switzer expressed surprise at the size of the raise and characterized the move as opportunistic, while also pointing to capital considerations—an example of how Wall Street’s “why now?” debate remains active. [24]
What investors often watch next after a large offering like this:
- Whether the underwriters’ option (often up to 15%) is exercised
- How quickly the market “absorbs” the new share supply
- Whether management provides additional capital or buyback guidance later
- Whether the offering price becomes a psychological reference level for near-term trading [25]
SOFI analyst forecasts: price targets cluster near the current quote, but dispersion is wide
Analyst views on SoFi remain mixed—often reflecting the tug-of-war between rapid growth and valuation/dilution risk.
- MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot recently listed an average recommendation of “Hold” with an average target price near $27.44 (based on the number of ratings shown on that page). [26]
- TipRanks’ SOFI forecast page shows an average price target around $27.50, implying relatively modest upside/downside around current levels. [27]
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows a lower average (around the mid‑$20s) while also listing a high target in the $30s—illustrating wide dispersion across the Street. [28]
There have also been notable bullish calls. MarketBeat’s roundup notes Citigroup raised its target to $37 in an October report (as summarized there), underscoring that the bull case still exists—especially if SoFi sustains profitability and expands fee-based and platform revenue while credit costs remain contained. [29]
How to read these targets as an investor: price targets often move after earnings, major capital actions (like share offerings), or shifts in the rate outlook. In SoFi’s case, the next big “reset points” are typically (1) the next earnings report, (2) updates on crypto monetization and stablecoin adoption, and (3) credit performance through the cycle. [30]
Key dates and what to watch before Monday’s open
1) Market schedule: when trading resumes and what’s next
U.S. equities are set to resume trading on Monday, Dec. 29 during normal hours, and investors are already looking ahead to year-end and New Year’s. Nasdaq’s trading-hours page lists standard U.S. market hours as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and NYSE’s calendar provides the official holiday and early-close framework. [31]
Investopedia’s holiday schedule coverage notes that stock markets are expected to be open for the full day on Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025, and closed on Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. [32]
2) The macro calendar can still move fintechs
Even in holiday weeks, key data can shift rate expectations and risk appetite. MarketWatch’s economic calendar lists Pending Home Sales (Nov.) scheduled for Monday, Dec. 29 (10:00 a.m. ET), followed by additional housing-linked and other reports later in the week. [33]
Because SoFi has lending exposure and has discussed housing sensitivity, housing data can matter disproportionately for sentiment—even if the company’s bigger volume driver is still personal loans. [34]
3) SoFi-specific headlines to monitor over the weekend
Between now and Monday’s open, investors in SOFI will typically watch for:
- Follow-through news on SoFiUSD (partnerships, rollout details, and any clarification on consumer availability timelines) [35]
- Updates on SoFi Crypto rollout breadth and any new regulatory guidance affecting bank-issued crypto products [36]
- Capital and share count impacts after the $1.5B offering, plus any commentary on capital management priorities [37]
4) Next earnings: “estimated” dates are circulating
Several market calendars currently point to late January for SoFi’s next report (often labeled as unconfirmed/estimated). Nasdaq’s SOFI earnings page has referenced Jan. 26, 2026 as an estimated date, and Wall Street Horizon similarly lists Jan. 26, 2026 (unconfirmed). Investors should treat these as estimates until SoFi confirms the date. [38]
Bottom line: the SOFI weekend setup in one paragraph
SoFi enters the next session with the stock near $27, markets closed for the weekend, and investors balancing strong operating momentum (record Q3 revenue, profitability, deposit growth, and expanding platform economics) against the near-term pressure of dilution from a large stock offering. At the same time, SoFi’s renewed crypto push—highlighted by the SoFiUSD stablecoin and the relaunch of SoFi Crypto—adds upside optionality but also introduces execution and regulatory narrative risk, especially in a year-end tape where light liquidity can exaggerate price swings.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.fool.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.federalreserve.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ca.investing.com, 10. investors.sofi.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. investors.sofi.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. s27.q4cdn.com, 18. s27.q4cdn.com, 19. www.wsj.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. investors.sofi.com, 22. investors.sofi.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. investors.sofi.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. investors.sofi.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.marketwatch.com, 34. ca.investing.com, 35. investors.sofi.com, 36. www.barrons.com, 37. investors.sofi.com, 38. www.nasdaq.com
