NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:06 p.m. ET — Market Closed
MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) is heading into the final trading days of 2025 under heavy pressure after sliding to a fresh 52-week low in Friday’s thin, post-holiday session. With U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend and crypto trading 24/7, investors are now watching weekend Bitcoin moves and year-end positioning ahead of Monday’s open.
MARA stock recap: Friday’s slide set a new 52-week low
MARA shares closed Friday, Dec. 26 at $9.59, down 3.52%, after trading as low as $9.43. Trading volume was active for the name at roughly 28.5 million shares, reflecting elevated churn as investors reposition into year-end. [1]
MarketBeat also flagged Friday’s move as a new 52-week low event for the stock and noted that shares are trading well below widely watched trend levels, including the company’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages. [2]
Why the broader tape matters: light volume, year-end “Santa Claus rally” watch
Friday’s session across Wall Street was muted after Christmas, with all three major U.S. indices closing only slightly lower in light volume. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, described the action as the market “catching our breath” after a strong run and noted that the “Santa Claus rally” window still had time to play out into early January. [3]
For high-beta names like MARA, that backdrop matters: thin liquidity and year-end flows can amplify moves—especially in stocks tied to crypto sentiment.
The core driver for MARA: Bitcoin price and network competition
Bitcoin miners live and die by two big variables: the price of BTC and the cost/competitiveness of producing it (hashrate, difficulty, power, and uptime). As of Saturday evening, Bitcoin was trading around $87,520.
Analysts have been explicit about the pressure miners face when network competition rises or BTC weakens. In a recent research note highlighted by TheFly, Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler lowered his price target on MARA to $15 from $22 while maintaining a Buy rating, pointing to “stubbornly high network competition” and the impact of BTC volatility on miners’ economics. [4]
MARA’s strategic pivot: from “pure miner” to energy + infrastructure + AI/HPC
While the stock’s day-to-day action often tracks Bitcoin, MARA has been selling the market a longer-term story: building a “digital energy and infrastructure” platform that can support multiple compute-heavy workloads—not just mining.
Two strategy pillars investors are still digesting:
1) West Texas power and data-center campuses (MPLX collaboration)
MARA and MPLX announced a letter of intent focused on developing integrated power generation facilities and data center campuses in West Texas. The companies outlined an initial capacity of 400 MW with potential to scale to 1.5 GW, with MPLX facilitating natural gas supply and MARA building on-site generation and compute infrastructure. [5]
MPLX President and CEO Maryann Mannen said the collaboration is intended to strengthen the natural gas value chain and power reliability for operations in the Delaware Basin. [6]
That effort also showed up in sell-side commentary. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch lowered his price target on MARA to $21 from $30 while keeping an Overweight rating, citing the MPLX initiative and noting the company’s focus on diversification (with open questions about how that diversification ultimately scales). [7]
2) Exaion investment to expand AI/HPC footprint
MARA and EDF Pulse Ventures signed an investment agreement that would allow MARA to acquire a 64% stake in Exaion (EDF subsidiary), with an option to increase ownership up to 75% by 2027. Exaion operates HPC data centers and provides secure cloud and AI infrastructure and works with partners including NVIDIA and Deloitte, according to the company. [8]
MARA said it would invest about $168 million upfront for the 64% stake, and the transaction was expected to close “in or around Q4 2025,” subject to conditions and approvals. [9]
CEO Fred Thiel framed the rationale around secure, scalable infrastructure needs for AI and governments/enterprises prioritizing data protection and energy efficiency. [10]
With Q4 2025 now nearly over, investors will be sensitive to any update cadence on closing timing, integration milestones, and capital allocation—especially given MARA’s depressed share price.
Insider selling: what filings show (and what they don’t)
Another topic that can influence sentiment around beaten-down equities is insider activity. In December filings posted to MARA’s investor relations site:
- A Form 4 for CEO Fred Thiel reported a sale of 27,505 shares at $10.77 (transaction date 12/17/2025), and the filing indicates the transaction was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. [11]
- A separate Form 4 for CFO Salman Khan reported a sale of 34,732 shares at $11.48 (transaction date 12/15/2025), also under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan per the filing’s explanation. [12]
Insider sales—particularly under 10b5-1 plans—don’t automatically signal a bearish view, but in a tape where MARA is making new lows, investors often treat them as an additional sentiment input.
Wall Street “consensus” vs. current price: a wide gap
One of the striking features of MARA right now is the spread between where the stock trades and where many sell-side targets sit. MarketBeat’s summary describes the analyst consensus as “Moderate Buy” and lists an average target materially above current levels. [13]
That gap can be interpreted in two ways:
- Bull case: MARA is “optionality priced,” meaning the market is discounting BTC volatility and mining margin pressure now, but targets assume a more constructive BTC environment and successful execution of infrastructure/AH/HPC plans.
- Bear case: targets lag reality during downcycles—especially when miners are fighting high competition and the market demands clearer proof of diversified cash flows.
What investors should watch before the next session
Because the U.S. stock market is closed today, MARA’s next key “price discovery” moment is Monday’s open—when equity investors react to whatever Bitcoin and macro markets do over the weekend.
Here’s what’s likely to matter most before Monday, Dec. 29:
1) Weekend Bitcoin moves (24/7 catalyst)
Bitcoin trades continuously, and Monday’s MARA open can gap up or down depending on weekend BTC direction.
2) Follow-through after the 52-week low
Friday’s low at $9.43 is now the obvious reference point for traders and risk managers. A break lower can trigger mechanical selling, while stabilization can attract bounce hunters—especially if BTC firms up. [14]
3) Any incremental updates on diversification initiatives
MARA’s longer-term narrative leans heavily on energy infrastructure and AI/HPC expansion, including the Exaion transaction timeline and the West Texas buildout concept with MPLX. [15]
4) Year-end liquidity and holiday schedule considerations
The last week of the year is often affected by thin trading and positioning. Stock markets are scheduled for a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31), while markets will be closed on New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026). [16]
Bottom line
MARA stock is ending 2025 on the defensive, with Friday’s close at $9.59 and a fresh 52-week low underscoring how quickly sentiment can sour when Bitcoin volatility and mining competition collide. [17]
At the same time, the company’s strategic push into power-backed compute infrastructure and AI/HPC (via Exaion and the MPLX initiative) gives bulls a framework for a “next chapter” beyond pure mining—one that analysts and investors will likely demand clearer timelines and measurable milestones for in 2026. [18]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. ir.mara.com, 6. ir.mara.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. ir.mara.com, 9. ir.mara.com, 10. ir.mara.com, 11. ir.mara.com, 12. ir.mara.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. ir.mara.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. ir.mara.com
