NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:05 a.m. ET — Market closed
NIKE, Inc. shares are heading into the final week of the year with investors still trying to answer one deceptively simple question: is Nike’s turnaround merely “in progress,” or is it finally starting to stick?
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, Nike stock (NYSE: NKE) is essentially frozen at Friday’s levels—closing around $60.84 and last seen near $60.92 in extended trading—while the narrative keeps moving: improving brand signals vs. stubbornly weak China demand, margin headwinds tied to tariffs and discounting, and a Wall Street consensus that remains broadly constructive but far from unanimous. [1]
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: the tone shifts from “panic” to “patience”
The most notable weekend developments weren’t fresh Nike press releases—they were fresh takes from analysts and market commentators trying to handicap the next phase.
1) UBS: “Don’t sprint” — improvement, but a longer road
In a new note highlighted by TipRanks, Jay Sole of UBS reiterated a Neutral rating and kept a $62 price target, arguing that brand indicators are moving in the right direction, but the recovery may take longer than investors want. [2]
2) Jefferies on CNBC: “Nike is going to get its act together”
On CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, Randy Konik (Jefferies managing director) struck a more optimistic tone, saying Nike is positioned for a comeback under CEO Elliott Hill, with early signs visible in North America (healthier inventory and improving margins), even as he acknowledged continued weakness in China. [3]
3) Technical picture: daily signals still lean cautious
From a pure technical-analysis standpoint, Investing.com’s daily read on Nike was marked “Strong Sell” as of its latest update late Friday (with mixed underlying indicators), and it flagged nearby pivot levels clustered around the low-$60s—exactly where Nike is now trading. [4]
Put together, the last 48 hours look less like a headline-driven stampede and more like a slow, careful repositioning: investors aren’t ignoring the problems—they’re debating whether the worst of the expectations reset has already happened.
Where Nike stock stands heading into Monday
Because the market is closed, the most investable fact pattern is Friday’s finish:
- Close (Fri., Dec. 26): about $60.84
- Extended trading: about $60.92 (as of 8:00 p.m. ET Friday) [5]
Nike remains down roughly ~20%+ in 2025 in several widely cited trackers and media reports—an ugly contrast versus the broader market’s strength earlier in the year and a big reason why “turnaround timing” matters so much right now. [6]
The core fundamental debate: “Win Now” actions vs. China reality and margin math
Nike’s most recent quarterly results still define the setup.
In its fiscal 2026 second quarter (ended Nov. 30, 2025), Nike reported:
- Revenue:$12.4 billion (about +1% reported)
- Diluted EPS:$0.53 (down 32%)
- Gross margin:40.6%, down about 300 basis points, which Nike attributed primarily to higher tariffs in North America
- Wholesale revenue:$7.5 billion (+8%)
- NIKE Direct:$4.6 billion (-8%), including a sharp decline in digital
- Converse:$300 million (-30%)
- Inventories:$7.7 billion (-3%) [7]
CEO Elliott Hill described Nike as being “in the middle innings” of its comeback, while CFO Matthew Friend emphasized portfolio resilience and “real-time decisions” to position the business for a fuller recovery. [8]
That’s the “company view.” The “market view,” especially post-earnings, has been more surgical: Nike needs margin stabilization and a credible China strategy fast enough to matter to a stock that has already been repriced.
China: the pressure point that won’t stop pressing
Reuters’ deep dive on Nike’s China challenge laid out why investors keep circling back to the same worry. Nike’s China sales decline extended for another quarter, and Reuters described intensifying competition from domestic brands like Anta and Li-Ning, plus what it called mounting margin pain tied to tariffs and obsolete inventory. [9]
The Reuters report also quoted Kim Forrest (CIO, Bokeh Capital Partners) and referenced David Bartosiak (Zacks Investment Research), capturing the tug-of-war investors feel: Nike has brand power, but the turnaround is running through a brutally competitive and price-sensitive environment—especially in China. [10]
Analyst forecasts: “Moderate Buy” consensus, but the dispersion is the story
If you just look at the headline consensus, Wall Street still leans constructive:
- MarketBeat lists Nike with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, based on 38 analyst ratings, and an average 12‑month price target of $75.84 (with a wide range from $35 to $115). [11]
- TipRanks shows a Moderate Buy consensus as well, with an average price target around $80 and a stated range that bottoms near the low $60s. [12]
But the practical takeaway isn’t “analysts like it.” It’s that the range is enormous, which usually signals real disagreement about the slope of the recovery: how quickly wholesale momentum offsets weaker direct channels, whether China stabilizes, and whether gross margin can stop bleeding.
The “wait-and-see” camp vs. the “cycle turns in 2026” camp
The UBS framing (neutral, $62 target) fits the first camp: improvement is visible, but don’t assume the income statement will cooperate on your preferred timeline. [13]
The Jefferies commentary, as relayed in the Stocktwits write-up of CNBC remarks, fits the second camp: the playbook—product, distribution balance, and execution under Elliott Hill—can work, particularly if North America trends improve and China comparisons become easier over time. [14]
What investors should know before the next session
Because this is a weekend pause before a year-end trading stretch, there are three buckets investors typically watch: market calendar, stock-specific catalysts, and positioning/technical levels.
1) Market calendar: year-end trading details matter
U.S. stock markets are closed right now. The next regular session begins Monday morning, and investors also have the New Year holiday ahead: NYSE markets observe New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026) as a holiday, and the NYSE publishes its schedule and trading hours (including core hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [15]
Thin liquidity near year-end can amplify moves—especially in widely held names like Nike where positioning has been in flux since earnings.
2) The next big Nike catalyst: the next earnings date (mid‑March 2026)
Investors have time to react to data, channel checks, and macro signals before Nike’s next report—but the date is already on calendars. TipRanks lists Nike’s next earnings as around March 19, 2026 (after close). [16]
Forecast aggregators also point to a meaningful step-down in quarterly sales from the holiday-quarter level Nike just reported. TipRanks’ forecast section lists a next-quarter sales estimate around $11.25B (with a range), compared with the $12.43B Nike reported for the quarter ended Nov. 30. [17]
3) Positioning: short interest is not screaming “crowded short,” but it’s not nothing
MarketBeat’s short-interest snapshot (based on the most recent reporting period) shows:
- Short interest around 36.88 million shares
- About 2.52% of public float
- Days to cover: about 2.8
- And a decline in short interest versus the prior report [18]
That profile is more consistent with “measured skepticism” than a powder-keg short squeeze setup—though squeezes can still happen for other reasons (surprises, flows, or macro shocks).
4) Technical levels: the stock is sitting in a “decision zone”
With Nike hovering around $61, the chart conversation naturally becomes: does it hold, base, and recover—or roll over?
Investing.com’s pivot table (based on its latest daily update late Friday) clusters multiple reference points around $60–$61, effectively marking the immediate battlefield where bulls want stability and bears want rejection. [19]
The “big picture” narrative investors are trading
Nike stock right now is not a single bet—it’s three bets wearing a trench coat:
- Execution bet: Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” strategy translates into steadier demand and healthier inventory dynamics (with wholesale improving as Nike rebuilds partner relationships). [20]
- China bet: the company proves it can reset its approach and compete effectively in a market where domestic brands have momentum and consumers are value-sensitive. [21]
- Margin bet: tariff-driven and promotional pressure fades enough for gross margin to stabilize and then recover—without starving marketing and innovation investment. [22]
When those bets start pointing in the same direction, Nike stock typically moves fast. When they diverge—as they have for much of 2025—the stock can feel like it’s running on a treadmill: plenty of effort, not much forward progress.
Bottom line for Monday: what to watch before the opening bell
With the market closed, Nike investors heading into Monday’s session are mostly watching for:
- Any weekend analyst notes that change the “patience vs. urgency” framing (UBS/Jefferies-style commentary has been the dominant fresh input). [23]
- Macro/holiday flow effects as year-end trading continues and liquidity fluctuates. [24]
- Whether Nike holds the low-$60 area—a zone that matters both psychologically and in common technical reference tables. [25]
Nike remains one of the most widely followed consumer discretionary names on the tape, and that means the stock can move on sentiment shifts even when company news is quiet. In this setup, the market’s question is less “Is Nike still Nike?” and more “How long will Nike’s comeback take—and how much pain is left in the margins before the brand momentum shows up cleanly in the numbers?” [26]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. stocktwits.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. investors.nike.com, 8. investors.nike.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. stocktwits.com, 15. www.nyse.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. investors.nike.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investors.nike.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. investors.nike.com
