NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 5:42 a.m. ET — Market Closed (Weekend)
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with investors juggling two competing narratives: an AI-and-defense growth story built around secure government deployments, and a balance-sheet-and-profitability debate that keeps resurfacing whenever the stock turns volatile.
With U.S. markets closed on Sunday, the next real catalyst isn’t a chart pattern—it’s the calendar. BigBear.ai’s reconvened special meeting of stockholders is set for Tuesday, Dec. 30, with an online voting deadline late Monday night. The outcome could shape the company’s financing flexibility and, just as importantly for shareholders, the market’s view on dilution risk.
Where BigBear.ai stock stands as markets remain shut
BBAI last traded around $5.73, after finishing Friday’s session down roughly 4.9%. Trading volume was heavy for a small-cap AI name, with about 41 million shares changing hands. [1]
That Friday move is driving much of the weekend conversation. MarketBeat, in a widely circulated recap published Friday, framed the drop in the context of mixed analyst sentiment and ongoing questions around fundamentals. [2]
The headline driver: BigBear.ai’s Dec. 30 shareholder vote on authorized shares
BigBear.ai is asking shareholders to approve an amendment that would increase the number of authorized shares of common stock from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000. The reconvened special meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025, at 3:00 p.m. ET, conducted remotely, and the company has urged shareholders to vote before the 11:59 p.m. ET online deadline on Monday, Dec. 29. [3]
In its SEC filing announcing the adjournment and reconvening, BigBear.ai said the board recommends shareholders vote “FOR” the proposal, and outlined potential uses for the additional authorization—including financing activities, compensatory retention awards, strategic relationships, and other corporate opportunities. [4]
CEO Kevin McAleenan has also taken a direct-to-shareholders approach. In a December letter posted by the company, he emphasized that the authorization is not a proposal to immediately issue and sell the full additional share count—rather, it’s intended to keep equity available for future opportunities such as acquisitions and balance-sheet actions. [5]
From an investor perspective, this vote matters because it can cut both ways:
- Bull case: Additional authorized shares can make it easier to fund M&A, raise capital, or structure strategic deals without waiting on another shareholder process.
- Bear case: More authorized shares can also heighten perceived dilution risk—especially in a stock that has already been volatile and heavily retail-traded.
This tension is likely to be the dominant storyline into Monday’s open, because it’s both time-sensitive and inherently market-moving if investors interpret it as a signal about future financing.
What the last 24–48 hours of coverage is saying about BBAI
Weekend coverage has been less about new corporate announcements and more about interpretation—why the stock slid, and what it means from here.
MarketBeat’s Friday update highlighted the sharp drop and pointed to mixed ratings/targets and weaker operating trends cited from prior quarterly results. [6]
TipRanks’ weekend note described shares sliding over the past week as investors re-weighed BigBear.ai’s defense-oriented AI opportunity against profitability concerns, reflecting an ongoing tug-of-war between thematic enthusiasm and fundamentals. [7]
The Motley Fool, in a cautionary piece published Friday, argued that BigBear.ai’s margins and business trends don’t justify its valuation, calling out a notably low gross margin level in recent results as a red flag. [8]
Separately, alternative-data trackers flagged BBAI’s elevated attention level. Quiver Quantitative posted that BBAI ranked among the most-searched tickers on its platform over the last week, underscoring how much of this stock’s near-term behavior can be sentiment-driven. [9]
Fundamentals check: what BigBear.ai reported in Q3 and what it guided for 2025
The fundamentals debate ultimately traces back to the company’s most recent quarterly reporting and its full-year outlook.
In its third-quarter 2025 earnings release, BigBear.ai reported:
- Revenue of $33.1 million, down about 20% year over year
- Gross margin of 22.4%
- Backlog of $376 million as of Sept. 30, 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA of $(9.4) million for the quarter [10]
The company also reaffirmed its 2025 revenue outlook of $125 million to $140 million. [11]
That same earnings communication is also where a major strategic pillar comes in: Ask Sage.
Ask Sage acquisition: why it’s central to the growth narrative
BigBear.ai announced in November that it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, describing it as a secure generative AI platform built for defense, national security, and other highly regulated customers. The company said Ask Sage was expected to deliver approximately $25 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025 (non-GAAP), and highlighted adoption figures including more than 100,000 users across government teams and commercial organizations. [12]
Importantly for near-term modeling, BigBear.ai said the Ask Sage acquisition was expected to close late in Q4 2025 or early in Q1 2026 and therefore was not expected to materially impact consolidated 2025 financial results. [13]
That combination—strategic upside, but limited near-term contribution—helps explain why the stock can swing on sentiment and financing expectations: investors are effectively pricing a transition story while the reported numbers remain choppy.
Analyst landscape and price-target forecasts: what Wall Street (and trackers) project
BigBear.ai’s investor relations site lists analyst coverage including:
- Northland Capital (Michael Latimore)
- Oppenheimer & Co. (Ittai Kidron, Param Singh)
- William Blair (Louie DiPalma, Kamil Mielczarek) [14]
On targets, published consensus numbers vary by data provider, but they broadly cluster around modest upside from recent prices:
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target of $6.50 (high $8.00, low $5.00) based on two analysts in the prior three months, and a “Moderate Buy” consensus. [15]
- MarketBeat characterizes the consensus as “Hold” with a consensus price target around $6.33, while also noting a range of targets it tracks. [16]
Taken together, the Street’s published target range suggests analysts see a path to stabilization and upside—but the relatively small sample sizes and differing methodologies mean investors should treat “consensus” as a rough compass, not a GPS.
Next earnings: why dates differ and what matters more than the exact day
Because BigBear.ai has not published an official Q4/FY 2025 earnings date on its IR events calendar as of this weekend, many platforms list estimated windows.
- MarketBeat says the company hasn’t confirmed the next date and shows an estimated report date of March 5, 2026. [17]
- TipRanks lists a report date of March 18, 2026 (Before Open), while also noting that upcoming dates may be updated when the actual date is announced. [18]
- Investing.com also shows March 18, 2026 as the next earnings date. [19]
For short-term traders, the key point isn’t whether it’s March 5 or March 18—it’s that the market is already starting to frame the next quarter as a proving ground for (1) revenue trajectory and (2) any incremental clarity on Ask Sage integration and government demand.
What investors should know before the next session opens
With markets shut today, the highest-value prep is about event risk and liquidity risk, not intraday noise.
1) Watch the proxy deadline and meeting outcome
The vote deadline is Monday night, and the meeting is Tuesday afternoon. If Proposal 1 passes, investors will likely debate the company’s next steps—especially whether management uses the expanded authorization for M&A, capital raises, or other corporate actions. [20]
2) Know the schedule for the week
This is a holiday-affected stretch, and thin liquidity can exaggerate moves in retail-heavy tickers like BBAI. Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights pending home sales (Monday), FOMC meeting minutes (Tuesday), jobless claims (Wednesday), and the New Year’s Day market holiday (Thursday)—with the first trading session of 2026 on Friday. [21]
3) Understand when U.S. stock trading resumes
NYSE guidance lists a core trading session of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with additional pre-opening and late-trading sessions depending on venue. For investors planning entries/exits, the practical takeaway is that liquidity and spreads can look very different at the open versus mid-day, and again near the close. [22]
4) Separate “attention” from “fundamentals”
BBAI’s unusually high attention can amplify volatility, but the company’s reported gross margin and revenue trend remain central to the longer-term debate. The next major inflection points will likely be (a) how the market interprets the authorized-shares vote, and (b) whether subsequent quarters show improving margins and more consistent growth in the core business and/or Ask Sage contribution after closing. [23]
Bottom line
BigBear.ai stock enters Monday’s session with a clear near-term catalyst (the authorized-shares vote) and a longer-term narrative hinge (turning defense-focused AI demand and the Ask Sage acquisition into durable, improving fundamentals). Until investors get cleaner evidence on margins and revenue stability, BBAI is likely to trade as a headline-and-sentiment-sensitive name—especially during a holiday-shortened stretch where liquidity can vanish at inconvenient moments.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. ir.bigbear.ai, 4. ir.bigbear.ai, 5. bigbear.ai, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.fool.com, 9. www.quiverquant.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. bigbear.ai, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. ir.bigbear.ai, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. ir.bigbear.ai, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.nyse.com, 23. www.sec.gov
