NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 7:51 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is dark this Sunday, but Wall Street’s narrative is anything but quiet: U.S. stocks are coming off a thinly traded, post-holiday session that left the major indexes only a hair’s breadth from record territory—and kept the S&P 500 within striking distance of the psychologically charged 7,000 level. [1]
With just three trading days left in 2025 (Monday through Wednesday), investors are heading into the final stretch watching a familiar year-end mix: lighter liquidity, portfolio rebalancing, and a growing debate about whether the market’s next leg higher can broaden beyond mega-cap tech. [2]
Where the market left off: A near-flat Friday, but still near the highs
In Friday’s last NYSE session (Dec. 26), Wall Street posted a modest pause after a strong run:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 20.19 points (‑0.04%) to 48,710.97
- S&P 500: down 2.11 points (‑0.03%) to 6,929.94
- Nasdaq Composite: down 20.21 points (‑0.09%) to 23,593.10 [3]
The small declines came in light volume—Reuters reported 10.22 billion shares traded across U.S. exchanges versus a 20-day average of 15.98 billion—a reminder that late-December price moves can look more dramatic (or more decisive) than they really are. [4]
Market breadth on the NYSE leaned constructive even with indexes slightly red: advancing issues beat decliners, and there were 342 new highs vs. 66 new lows on the NYSE. [5]
Santa Claus rally watch: Seasonal tailwind—or just thin trading?
Strategists are also tracking the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window—typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year (this cycle running through Jan. 5, per Reuters’ explanation). [6]
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, framed Friday as more of a pause than a breakdown after a “very strong five-day rally,” adding that he still saw “a little more upward bias going forward” during the seasonal stretch. [7]
The big level: S&P 500 and the pull of 7,000
The market’s big round-number magnet is 7,000 on the S&P 500—a milestone the index has been flirting with as 2025 winds down. Reuters reported the S&P 500 was about 1% away from 7,000 and on track for its eighth straight monthly gain, which would be the longest monthly winning streak since 2017–2018. [8]
As Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, put it to Reuters: “Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls,” while also flagging that the trend can change quickly if an external shock hits thin markets. [9]
What’s driving the conversation into Monday: Fed minutes and rate-cut expectations
The biggest scheduled macro catalyst this week is the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, due Tuesday. Investors are looking for more clarity on the path of rate cuts after a year in which the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, bringing it to 3.50%–3.75%, according to Reuters. [10]
Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, told Reuters the minutes could be revealing—particularly as markets try to “handicap” how many cuts might arrive next year. [11]
Another potential wild card: Reuters noted investors are also watching for any signal around President Donald Trump’s expected nomination of a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell when Powell’s term ends in May—an event Reuters said could sway markets. [12]
Rotation story: Can the rally broaden beyond tech?
One of the more important late-2025 themes isn’t just “stocks up,” but which stocks are carrying the load.
Reuters reported that with only a handful of sessions left in the year, the S&P 500 was up nearly 18% in 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 22%—but the S&P 500 tech sector has been choppy and was down more than 3% since the start of November, even after a rebound. [13]
Over that same period, Reuters highlighted relative strength in financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps, pointing to a possible rotation into areas with more moderate valuations. [14]
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, told Reuters this shift reflects a growing investor belief that the economy is on “pretty solid footing,” after weathering several potential roadblocks in 2025. [15]
Stock-specific movers from the last NYSE session
Even with indexes barely moving on Friday, a few names and themes stood out in Reuters’ recap:
- Nvidia gained after a deal involving AI chip technology licensing from startup Groq and the hiring of Groq’s CEO. [16]
- Target jumped after the Financial Times reported the retailer faced activism tied to hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management’s investment. [17]
- Precious metals strength spilled into U.S.-listed miners as gold and silver hit fresh record highs, lifting several mining stocks. [18]
Calendar check: What to watch before the New Year holiday
With the NYSE closed today, attention turns to Monday’s reopening and the holiday-shaped schedule ahead. Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar calls out:
- Monday, Dec. 29: Pending home sales (November)
- Tuesday, Dec. 30: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October), Chicago Business Barometer (December), December FOMC minutes
- Wednesday, Dec. 31: Initial jobless claims (week ending Dec. 27); U.S. bond markets close early
- Thursday, Jan. 1:New Year’s Day holiday (markets closed) [19]
Investopedia also noted no significant corporate earnings are scheduled this week, which can amplify the impact of macro headlines and positioning flows. [20]
For market-hours specifics, the NYSE’s published schedule lists the core trading session as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with a pre-opening session beginning at 6:30 a.m. ET for order entry and queuing ahead of the opening auction. [21]
And the NYSE holiday calendar confirms New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026) is a market holiday. [22]
Forecasts and 2026 outlook: bullish targets, but “uneven path” risk
While the near-term is about year-end mechanics and Fed minutes, longer-range forecasts are starting to harden into consensus narratives.
An Investing.com analysis citing Bloomberg-compiled strategist targets said the average year-end 2026 S&P 500 target among major investment strategists stood at 7,555, with a range from 7,000 to 8,100—implying roughly 9% upside from then-current levels. [23]
The same analysis warned the first half of 2026 could still bring a correction if bond yields rise sharply, and pointed to the “largest stocks” as a continuing driver of index-level earnings. It also cited Goldman Sachs analysts as highlighting U.S. growth, a weaker dollar, and AI-driven productivity as potential earnings tailwinds. [24]
What investors should know before Monday’s NYSE open
With the exchange closed today, here are the practical, non-hype items that matter most heading into Monday, Dec. 29:
- Expect thinner liquidity to persist. Reuters’ data on below-average volume into year-end underscores how easily prices can gap on lighter flows. [25]
- Know the key “event risk” days. Tuesday’s Fed minutes are the headline macro release of the week, and markets remain hypersensitive to rate-path nuance. [26]
- Watch for rotation signals, not just index direction. Strength in financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps versus a choppier tech tape may matter more than a few S&P points near 7,000. [27]
- Be mindful of holiday closures and early closes. Stocks are closed Thursday for New Year’s Day, and bond markets have an early close Wednesday—conditions that can distort cross-asset signals. [28]
- Use discipline on order placement. In thin markets, spreads can widen quickly; limit orders and staged entries can help reduce “surprise” fills—especially around the open and close auctions. (NYSE session structure is published on the exchange’s hours page.) [29]
For now, the scoreboard says the same thing it has said for much of 2025: the uptrend remains intact, the index is flirting with a big round number, and the market’s next big move may come less from “earnings season drama” and more from Fed nuance, liquidity quirks, and whether leadership broadens as the calendar flips to 2026. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.nyse.com, 22. www.nyse.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.nyse.com, 30. www.reuters.com
