NEW YORK, December 31, 2025, 07:05 ET — Premarket
- Tesla shares were down about 0.3% in premarket trading, after sliding in the prior session. 1
- Tesla published a company-compiled “consensus” — an average of broker analysts’ estimates — that points to a fourth-quarter drop in deliveries. 2
- Investors are focused on Tesla’s official quarterly production and delivery report due Friday. 3
Tesla shares edged lower in premarket trading on Wednesday after the electric-vehicle maker posted unusually pessimistic Wall Street delivery expectations on its investor relations site ahead of its quarterly report. 1
The publication matters because Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter and annual production and delivery figures on Friday, and that print is the market’s fastest read on demand. Deliveries are the vehicles a carmaker hands to customers. 3
Tesla rarely puts sell-side forecasts in public view, and the move has sharpened investor focus on whether the company is trying to reset expectations into the release.
Tesla said the average estimate of 20 sell-side analysts calls for total fourth-quarter deliveries of 422,850 vehicles. The table showed 388,002 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries and 34,848 from all other models, and it added that Tesla “does not endorse” analyst conclusions. 2
The company-compiled figure is more downbeat than other tallies tracked by investors. A Bloomberg-compiled average cited in media reports stood at 445,061 vehicles for the quarter, implying a smaller year-on-year decline. 4
Tesla ended Tuesday down 1.13% at $454.43. The stock last traded at $454.09 in after-hours activity, according to market data. 5
“This is highly unusual for Tesla to send out a press release with quarterly consensus delivery estimates,” Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund, said, arguing the disclosure pointed to deliveries below the broader Bloomberg consensus. 6
Analysts have been bracing for a softer quarter after U.S. EV tax credits expired in September and competition intensified, Reuters reported. Tesla launched stripped-down “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in October, priced about $5,000 below prior base models, and Reuters said it will face competition from affordable EVs expected from Chevrolet and Ford over the next two years. 3
Even with delivery expectations cooling, investors have kept a close eye on Tesla’s longer-term push into robotaxis, humanoid robots and self-driving software, which many bulls view as the core driver of the stock’s valuation, Reuters said. 3
