New York, Jan 12, 2026, 09:34 EST — Regular session
Tesla (TSLA.O) shares rose 2.1% to $445.01 in early New York trading on Monday.
The early move keeps the spotlight on a stock that trades as much on expectations for new businesses as on car sales. Investors are trying to map Tesla’s next catalysts onto a market that is quick to punish misses.
That backdrop is noisy this week. Traders are looking to U.S. inflation data due Tuesday and the start of quarterly earnings season for big banks, both of which can jolt rate-sensitive growth names. 1
Chief Executive Elon Musk has framed 2026 as a “prove-it” year, with Tesla facing self-imposed deadlines tied to robotaxis, a purpose-built “Cybercab,” its Optimus humanoid robot and the long-delayed Roadster, Business Insider reported. “I think 2026 is going to be the prove-it year for Tesla’s robotaxi business,” Seth Goldstein, an analyst at Morningstar, told the publication. 2
Tesla said on Jan. 2 it delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter and deployed 14.2 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products, a record for deployments. The company also warned that deliveries are only one measure and that quarterly results depend on pricing, costs and other factors. 3
A company-compiled consensus of sell-side analysts had penciled in 422,850 fourth-quarter deliveries and 13.4 GWh of energy storage deployments. That put Tesla’s vehicle deliveries about 1% below the estimate, while energy storage ran about 6% above it. 4
Other U.S. automakers traded lower. Rivian slid 3.3%, General Motors fell 2.7% and Ford was down 1.3%.
But the next test is Tesla’s guidance. If the January results show another squeeze on profitability in the core car business, or slower progress on autonomy, the stock can turn fast.
For now, traders are watching for any fresh signals on robotaxi rollout — a driverless ride-hailing service — and how quickly a dedicated vehicle like the Cybercab can move from promise to volume production. Tesla is expected to report earnings on Jan. 28 after the market close. 5
