New York, Jan 13, 2026, 00:52 EST — Market closed
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares climbed 1.7% to $62.80 on Monday as investors digested reports that the miner isn’t planning a rival bid for Glencore. Instead, BHP appears set to wait on Rio Tinto’s takeover discussions, according to two sources familiar with the situation. Those sources also said BHP doesn’t see Glencore’s coal and trading units as a good strategic fit. BHP declined to comment. 1
The stance matters now because it removes one potential spoiler, at least for the time being, amid ongoing mining deal talks focused largely on copper. Copper, essential for power cables and grid equipment, has seen demand forecasts driven by data centers and electrification efforts, pushing miners to search for more supply.
It also raises the stakes on BHP’s next move with its growth strategy — whether to invest, acquire, or hold back — as investors remain quick to slam pricey mergers and acquisitions, especially those mistimed in the cycle.
Rio Tinto’s U.S.-listed shares gained 2.1%, closing at $82.88. Copper-focused miners in New York saw similar gains, with Freeport-McMoRan jumping 3.8%. For now, BHP’s stock is behaving more like a metals play than a potential takeover target.
Still, some in the market argue BHP can’t avoid the consolidation trend much longer. “This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating,” Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global, noted, saying major players face growing pressure to take corporate action. Richard Hatch at Berenberg labeled BHP “the most likely interloper” in a potential Rio-Glencore tie-up. Meanwhile, RBC’s Kaan Peker pointed out BHP’s copper growth outlook is “cleaner” than that of a merged rival, suggesting a move might not be necessary. George Cheveley from Ninety One added any bid could prove “difficult emotionally” after BHP’s failed Anglo American attempt. Reuters reported Rio has until Feb. 5 to make a formal offer under UK takeover rules. 2
Setting aside the deal chatter, a recent filing revealed BHP granted 3,963,655 unquoted performance rights dated Dec. 31 under its long-term incentive scheme, a routine disclosure linked to employee equity grants. That filing also listed BHP’s total ordinary shares outstanding at 5,078,913,175.
The copper crunch at the heart of the discussion persists. Chile’s Codelco, the largest copper miner globally, projects 2026 production at 1.344 million metric tons. Still, it warned that declining ore grades and project delays continue to hamper supply expansion. 3
The risk here is that the deal story becomes nothing more than a mirage: negotiations could collapse, regulators might insist on asset sell-offs, and commodity prices can shift quicker than bankers anticipate. When copper tumbles, interest in large, complicated mergers tends to fade right along with it.
Investors are focused on BHP’s operational review set for Jan. 20, followed by its half-year earnings on Feb. 17. Changes in capital allocation, copper strategy, or cost outlook usually surface swiftly in the stock around these dates. 4
