NEW YORK, Jan 13, 2026, 17:52 EST
- Intel jumped 7.3%, while AMD added 6.4%, following KeyBanc’s upgrade of both to “overweight”
- KeyBanc’s checks indicate a tight supply of server CPUs in 2026, with prices possibly rising 10%–15%
- The firm pointed to Intel’s advancements with its 18A manufacturing process and a more optimistic forecast for AMD’s AI hardware
Shares of Intel and Advanced Micro Devices surged Tuesday following a KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrade. The firm highlighted constrained supply for server processors driven by AI demand.
Intel climbed 7.3% to close at $47.29, with AMD gaining 6.4% to reach $220.97.
Investors are weighing whether the AI infrastructure buildup continues to drive orders down the supply chain, despite the broader markets showing a patchy start to the year.
For Intel, this upgrade marks more than just a shift in the stock price. Wall Street remains wary of the company’s turnaround, so a boost in confidence from a major brokerage can carry significant weight.
KeyBanc has slapped an “overweight” rating on the stocks, signaling they expect these companies to outperform their peers. Their checks revealed the firms have “largely sold out” their projected 2026 server CPU capacity, according to Investopedia. KeyBanc’s price target for Intel is $60 — well above the $41 consensus — while its $270 target for AMD aligns closely with the average analyst estimate, the report noted. Investopedia
Analyst John Vinh reported that a recent trip to Asia revealed “outsized hyperscaler demand,” which is straining parts of the supply chain and driving up prices for DRAM and NAND, two widely used memory types. He noted Intel is “largely sold out in server CPU in 2026” and is mulling “a 10–15% ASP increase,” referring to average selling prices. Meanwhile, AMD is “almost being completely sold out of server CPU in 2026,” according to Investing.com. Investing
Vinh also noted in a separate report that supply-chain checks indicate Intel is “almost sold out for the year” on data center server CPUs. He pointed to “significant progress” in the company’s manufacturing efforts. Yahoo
KeyBanc linked its outlook on Intel to manufacturing execution. The firm reported Intel’s 18A process — its next-gen chipmaking tech — has surpassed a 60% yield rate, indicating more chips per wafer are functioning properly. It also highlighted early momentum in Intel’s contract manufacturing segment, mentioning work connected to Apple.
KeyBanc sees AMD’s server CPU segment expanding by at least 50% this year, driven by big cloud players ramping up AI infrastructure. The firm also highlighted potential pricing leverage if tight supply persists through 2026.
Vinh has grown more optimistic about AMD’s AI accelerator lineup, pointing to strong momentum in its MI355 chips and an anticipated boost from the MI455 series connected to “Helios,” AMD’s inaugural rack-scale system. He projects AI revenue hitting $14 billion to $15 billion by 2026, MarketWatch reported. Marketwatch
The supply crunch cuts both ways. KeyBanc flagged that memory shortages and higher prices might drag on the PC market. At the same time, it said the shift in product mix could boost margins for firms with more exposure to data centers.
The upgrade hinges on shaky assumptions: cloud clients continuing to spend, price hikes holding firm, and Intel’s manufacturing improvements turning into steady foundry orders. Any misstep in execution—or a slowdown in AI infrastructure demand—would be the first to shake the optimistic outlook.
Chipmakers are scrambling for dominance across the AI stack. AMD is still working to narrow its gap with Nvidia in accelerators, while Intel aims to restore its standing in both products and manufacturing. Investors will be closely eyeing upcoming earnings reports and customer spending trends for clues. Cnbc
