New York, January 23, 2026, 06:11 (EST) — Premarket
Gold climbed to a fresh record on Friday, pushing close to $5,000 an ounce before pulling back slightly in early trading. Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $4,917.37 per ounce by 0851 GMT, after hitting a session high of $4,967.03. U.S. gold futures for February rose 0.2% to $4,921.70. “Faith in the U.S. and its assets have been shaken, maybe permanently,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com. 1
Gold’s surge at the start of 2026 is shaking up investor calculations, prompting a fresh look at risk and the dollar’s influence. On Thursday, bullion climbed above $4,900 for the first time. Traders pointed to a softer dollar index — which tracks the greenback against key currencies — alongside steady bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. “Those factors are part and parcel of the macro ‘de-dollarisation’ trend,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Silver and platinum also hit new highs in the rally. 2
U.S. data left the rates story largely intact. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s go-to inflation measure — climbed 0.2% in November and was up 2.8% year-over-year. Consumer spending also increased by 0.5% in both October and November, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, which released the numbers after a 43-day government shutdown. 3
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $5,400 an ounce, up from $4,900. The bank highlighted growing demand from private-sector buyers and emerging market central banks diversifying into bullion. “We assume private sector diversification buyers … don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026,” it said, though it cautioned that a sudden drop in macro-policy risks could prompt hedge unwinds, putting downward pressure on prices. 4
Physical markets are starting to feel the pressure from the rally. In India, premiums surged to $112 an ounce above official domestic prices this week — the highest level since May 2014 — as investors rushed to buy ahead of the Feb. 1 budget, which some anticipate will include an import duty hike. “With a duty hike expected in the budget, investors jumped in and bought aggressively,” said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director of Hyderabad-based bullion merchant CapsGold. 5
U.S. markets are eyeing the Fed’s upcoming two-day meeting on Jan. 27–28. The policy decision and Chair’s press briefing will come on Jan. 28. 6
The rally isn’t guaranteed to hold. A dollar bounce, rising yields, or hints the Fed won’t rush to ease might push quick traders to exit crowded longs, especially as gold edges closer to the $5,000 mark.
Traders are focused on two key points: can bullion stay above the previous breakout level around $4,900, and will the Fed’s message on Jan. 28 confirm or challenge the market’s expectations for rate cuts this year.
