Sydney, Jan 27, 2026, 16:51 AEDT — After-hours
- National Australia Bank ended the day 1.3% higher at A$42.88, having reached a peak of A$43.15 earlier.
- A firmer NAB business survey stoked rate concerns ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report
- Upcoming triggers include Australia’s CPI on Jan 28, the RBA decision statement due Feb 3, and NAB’s trading update set for Feb 18
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd ended Tuesday up 1.3%, or 53 Australian cents, closing at A$42.88. The stock traded between A$42.42 and A$43.15 throughout the session before pushing higher near the close. 1
This matters because investors are scrambling to figure out where Australian interest rates will head next. Banks usually move in step with those forecasts. Changes in rate pricing hit bank valuations directly, affecting everything from expectations for loan growth to concerns over bad debts.
NAB’s monthly business survey fueled the rate debate, revealing that business conditions improved in December with stronger sales and profits, while capacity utilisation remained elevated. Chief economist Sally Auld noted that “elevated capacity utilisation in the economy is broad based,” a point likely to catch the attention of traders worried about inflation ahead of the central bank’s meeting. 2
The boost wasn’t limited to NAB alone. Bank shares gained overall in afternoon trading, with ANZ climbing around 0.9% and Commonwealth Bank rising close to 0.6%. Financial stocks outpaced the day’s weaker sectors. 3
Australian shares ended the session on a positive note, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising 0.92% by the close. Gains were led by strength in resources and various cyclical sectors. 4
Bank investors are zeroing in on the RBA’s cash rate — the key benchmark for interest — since it directly influences mortgage rates, deposit yields, and borrower pressure. It can boost earnings one quarter and weigh them down the next.
Inflation data arrives fast. Australia’s Consumer Price Index for December 2025 hits the wires Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. This one release could shake up rate expectations instantly. 5
The trade cuts both ways. A hotter CPI might reignite concerns over tighter policy, hitting rate-sensitive sectors hard. On the flip side, a softer reading could spark fresh doubts about banks’ pricing power amid fierce mortgage competition.
For NAB, investors are focused on the upcoming first-quarter trading update set for Feb. 18. The market will be watching closely for clues on credit quality and margins amid ongoing uncertainty in the rate cycle. 6
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s CPI release, followed by the RBA decision statement set for Feb. 3 at 2:30 p.m. AEDT. Bank shares are expected to react sharply as rate expectations shift between these two dates. 7
