New York, January 27, 2026, 18:39 EST — After-hours
- Eli Lilly shares fell roughly 2.3%, ending at $1,039.51, then ticked up about 0.3% in after-hours trading
- U.S. Medicare officials selected Lilly’s Trulicity as one of 15 drugs for price negotiations in 2028
- Investors are eyeing Feb. 4 earnings for clues on demand, pricing, and supply trends in Lilly’s diabetes and obesity medications
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) shares ended Tuesday down $24.22, or roughly 2.3%, at $1,039.51. In after-hours trading, the stock edged up about 0.3% to $1,042.50. The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced it selected Lilly’s Trulicity, a type 2 diabetes drug, along with 14 other medicines for 2028 price negotiations. This marks the first time the list includes some therapies covered under Medicare Part B. Last year, the agency projected that negotiated prices for the 15 drugs chosen for 2027 would cut annual spending by 36%, roughly $8.5 billion, compared to recent costs. (Yahoo Finance)
Medicare negotiations drag on, yet investors see the list as a clear warning. The program allows the government to impose a “maximum fair price” on Medicare-covered drugs, potentially slashing revenue once those prices take effect.
For Lilly, focus remains on how U.S. reimbursement policy might pressure its older franchises, even as newer growth drivers take center stage. The coming weeks are packed with catalysts, and traders won’t tolerate any unexpected moves on pricing.
The stock has dropped for three sessions in a row, now trading roughly 8% below its 52-week peak from Jan. 8, according to MarketWatch data. On Tuesday, Lilly underperformed its rivals—Pfizer, AbbVie, and Johnson & Johnson all closed higher—while the S&P 500 inched upward. (MarketWatch)
Competition remained sharp after Roche unveiled mid-stage data for its weekly CT-388 obesity treatment, targeting the same dual GLP-1/GIP pathway as Lilly’s tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound). Roche reported up to 22.5% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 48 weeks among patients who completed treatment. Jefferies analysts noted the drug lands “pretty much into the same efficacy ballpark as Zepbound.” Roche’s head of development, Manu Chakravarthy, told Reuters: “To see no plateau and this very steep linear trajectory is likely a reflection of this potential for higher efficacy.” (Reuters)
Lilly is set to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4, with an earnings call planned for 10 a.m. EST, according to its investor site. Investors will be focused on updates regarding demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, potential supply issues, and any changes in pricing strategy. (Lilly Investor Relations)
Manufacturers have until Feb. 28 to sign on for the 2028 negotiation cycle and must submit their data by March 1, according to CMS’s schedule. The agency aims to send out initial price offers by June 1 and release any finalized maximum fair prices by Nov. 30, 2026. These new prices will kick in on Jan. 1, 2028. The maximum fair price sets the highest amount Medicare will pay once negotiations wrap up. (CMS)
The impact on Trulicity’s revenue hinges on the depth of the final price cut and how much of its volume remains within Medicare by 2028. If competition drives quicker discounts across the diabetes and obesity market, the stock could come under added pressure.
Next, investors will watch for any Lilly remarks on Trulicity’s inclusion and await further details from CMS about the rest of the 2028 list. The bigger date to watch is Feb. 4, when Lilly reports earnings and revises its outlook.
