New York, Jan 28, 2026, 18:59 EST — After-hours.
- Eli Lilly shares fell about 1.5% in late trading, extending a three-day slide.
- U.S. Medicare put Lilly’s Trulicity on its next drug-price negotiation list, with a Feb. 28 participation deadline.
- Lilly also signed a deal worth up to $1.12 billion with gene-editing startup Seamless Therapeutics.
Eli Lilly (LLY.N) shares were down about 1.5% at $1,023.80 in after-hours trading on Wednesday, after swinging between $1,004.25 and $1,038.96 in the regular session.
The move matters because Lilly’s stock has been priced for years of growth from its diabetes and obesity franchise, leaving little room for policy shocks or a stumble in demand. The shares are still below their recent 52-week high hit earlier this month, but investors have treated dips as a test of conviction.
Now there are two fresh cross-currents: Washington’s next round of Medicare drug-price talks and a steady drumbeat of competition in the GLP-1 market, the hormone-based drug class that lowers blood sugar and can curb appetite.
On Tuesday, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services named 15 drugs for the third cycle of its price negotiation program, including Lilly’s Trulicity, with any negotiated prices slated to take effect on Jan. 1, 2028. CMS said drugmakers have until Feb. 28, 2026, to decide whether to participate.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said the “impacts will be manageable,” pointing to what he called reasonable outcomes in earlier rounds and the fact that some products are nearing the end of exclusivity. Reuters
Separately on Wednesday, Lilly signed an agreement worth up to $1.12 billion with Germany-based Seamless Therapeutics to develop hearing-loss treatments using Seamless’s gene-editing platform. The approach uses engineered enzymes to make targeted DNA changes.
Seamless CEO Albert Seymour called the arrangement “a way for us to work with the platform, with a partner,” and said the company is open to similar deals beyond Lilly. Reuters
Lilly said the partnership reflects its “sustained investment in genetic medicines,” as it broadens its pipeline beyond its blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. Reuters
Competition is not letting up in those blockbusters. Reuters reported Novo Nordisk spent nearly $500 million on U.S. ads for Wegovy and Ozempic in the first nine months of 2025, more than double Lilly’s estimated spend for Zepbound and Mounjaro, based on MediaRadar data.
Emarketer analyst Rajiv Leventhal said “Lilly has that edge with Zepbound,” arguing heavier ad spending can help a rival blunt that advantage. Rae McMahan of Prescryptive added that “it’s still a conversation” between patients and doctors, underscoring the limits of advertising in driving prescriptions. Reuters
The risk for bulls is that Medicare negotiations — even if years away from taking effect — turn into a bigger earnings overhang, especially if investors start modeling steeper price cuts or broader spillover to commercial pricing. The other risk is that the GLP-1 fight becomes more promotional, pushing costs up as supply normalizes.
Next up, traders will watch whether Lilly’s slide stabilizes into Thursday’s session, and then shift quickly to its quarterly results due Feb. 4, before the U.S. market opens, for updates on demand, supply and 2026 expectations.
