NEW YORK, Feb 4, 2026, 13:34 (EST) — Regular session
- Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $4,907.69 an ounce, erasing some earlier gains
- ADP reports January private payrolls rose by 22,000; U.S. jobs report rescheduled for Feb. 11
- Analysts have raised their gold price targets for 2026, yet ongoing volatility is making traders wary.
Gold prices slipped on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains as the dollar hovered near a one-week peak and traders took profits following a sharp rally. By 12:20 p.m. ET, spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,907.69 an ounce, after climbing as much as 3.1%. U.S. gold futures for April held steady at $4,930.30, while silver rose 0.9% to $85.87. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, noted, “We did see a turnaround in the dollar, and that strength put some pressure on gold.” Reuters
Gold remains stuck near $4,900 following a volatile move that saw it drop from a late-January peak to a Monday low before bouncing back. Spot gold climbed 5.2% on Tuesday after hitting $4,403.24, as markets absorbed President Donald Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair and the impact of increased margin requirements for futures traders. “We’re likely to see a period of consolidation,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Reuters
The next key data point is U.S. labor figures, postponed due to the three-day government shutdown. ADP reported private payrolls increased by 22,000 in January, falling short of expectations. The Labor Department announced the official January jobs report will now come out on Feb. 11, while the January CPI is delayed until next Friday. Reuters
A weaker jobs report would typically drag the dollar down and push yields lower, factors that usually boost gold. But instead, the greenback snapped back fast, stopping bulls from fully committing to the rally.
Geopolitics returned to the forefront as Iran and the U.S. prepare to restart nuclear negotiations on Friday in Turkey. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Istanbul. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing are working to stabilize ties after Trump and Xi spoke Wednesday, ahead of a planned visit in April. Reuters
Long-term investors are focusing on demand, not just this week’s market moves. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders raised its median gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,746.50 an ounce, up from $4,275 in October. The boost reflects central-bank buying and concerns about geopolitics, U.S. debt, and Federal Reserve independence. Deutsche Bank analysts noted the rationale for holding gold “will not have changed.” Reuters
Recent volatility has some analysts hesitant to declare a clear bottom in gold. “It is far too early to suggest gold has found a bottom yet,” warned Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. On the other hand, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo still expects gold to hit a new record above $6,200 later this year. Reuters
Gold’s volatility has been strikingly high for an asset typically viewed as a portfolio shock absorber. One-week realized volatility surged past 90% amid the sell-off, Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever noted, following a roughly 10% drop in a single day and then the largest rebound since 2008. Reuters
That volatility works both ways. Should the dollar keep rallying, or if futures exchanges hike margins once more, leveraged traders might get squeezed out quickly, pushing prices sharply lower before buyers step in.
Traders are turning their attention to Friday’s Iran talks and the refreshed U.S. data calendar next week, which peaks with the Feb. 11 payrolls report. With Powell set to pass the Fed chair baton to Warsh in May, positioning remains jittery.
