New York, Feb 5, 2026, 4:04 PM EST — After-hours
- SanDisk shares dipped 1.4% by the close but saw a slight rebound in after-hours trading
- TrendForce has raised its 1Q forecasts for DRAM and NAND, putting memory pricing back under the spotlight
- Investors are assessing if SanDisk’s jump in profits and upgraded forecast will last into the upcoming contract negotiations
SanDisk shares slipped 1.4% to close at $576.25 on Thursday, fluctuating widely between $562.10 and $619.41 during a volatile session. After hours, the stock nudged up 0.3%.
The late pullback counts because SanDisk’s rally hinges on a single big bet: tighter supply and faster price gains for memory used in data centers. Investors are now trying to figure out how much of this is a “pricing cycle” and how much reflects a lasting “structural shift” in AI infrastructure demand.
SanDisk has raised the bar for its upcoming results, signaling little tolerance for mishaps. In a Jan. 29 SEC filing, the company posted fiscal second-quarter revenue of $3.03 billion and GAAP net income of $803 million. It also projected fiscal third-quarter revenue between $4.40 billion and $4.80 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected to hit $12 to $14. (The non-GAAP figures leave out certain items the company excludes from its core performance.) CEO David Goeckeler noted the quarter reflected “accelerating enterprise SSD deployments” amid stronger demand trends. Source
New forecasts are fueling the pricing debate. TrendForce, as reported by EE Times Asia on Thursday, bumped up its Q1 outlook. Conventional DRAM contract prices now look set to jump 90%–95% quarter-on-quarter. NAND flash contract prices aren’t far behind, expected to climb 55%–60%. Enterprise SSD prices could surge 53%–58% this quarter too, driven by buyers stocking up amid tight supply. (Contract prices refer to negotiated deals between suppliers and big customers, not retail tags.
A fresh note from TrendForce this week highlights a market favoring sellers but with patchy dynamics beneath the surface. Their Feb. 4 NAND flash update pointed to supply constraints driving contract prices up, despite high spot prices that have “stalled trading momentum.” Meanwhile, suppliers are shifting focus to higher-capacity TLC and QLC products aimed at AI storage demands. Source
For SanDisk, the signals come with a double edge. While higher contract prices can boost margins quickly, they also draw more capacity into the market and encourage customers to push back on terms—especially when inventories stop looking tight.
The familiar risk for memory makers remains: the cycle can shift without warning. Should hyperscalers pull back on orders or supply ease ahead of schedule, investors might just as swiftly downgrade earnings expectations as they previously raised them.
Next week, traders will watch tech risk appetite closely, while also zeroing in on pricing signals — particularly details from customer negotiations. TrendForce expects smartphone memory contract talks with Chinese vendors to show “significant progress” by late February, a period markets usually view as a key indicator for broader memory price trends.
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