London, February 10, 2026, 11:25 (GMT) — Regular session
- Crude slipped, giving back some of Monday’s gains that came after new shipping alerts near Iran sent prices higher.
- Geopolitical concerns are swirling, but traders are also seeing evidence that supply remains robust.
- Traders are eyeing inventories now, with OPEC’s monthly report and key U.S. inflation numbers still to come this week.
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s advance as traders kept a close eye on possible supply threats from U.S.-Iran friction. Brent crude eased 24 cents, or 0.35%, at $68.80 a barrel as of 1002 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 30 cents, down 0.47%, to $64.06. “Unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions, prices will likely start going lower,” said PVM’s Tamas Varga, describing the market as “range-bound.” IG analyst Tony Sycamore, meanwhile, said the risk premium for potential disruption remains in place. 1
Fresh U.S. guidance rattled markets, as the U.S. Maritime Administration told American-flagged ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz—crucial for Middle East oil flows—to keep a wide berth from Iran’s territorial waters. The advice: verbally refuse any boarding requests, but don’t put up a fight if boarded. Crews got the warning just as nerves were already on edge. 2
The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Oman and Iran, handles around 20% of global oil consumption—meaning a flare-up here hits physical supply lines fast. Iran and major Gulf exporters ship the lion’s share of their crude through this narrow passage, most of it headed to Asian buyers. 3
Oil prices jumped in the last session after the U.S. issued its advisory. Brent ended up 99 cents, or 1.5%, at $69.04. WTI added 81 cents, a 1.3% gain, to close at $64.36. Ritterbusch and Associates noted this week’s moves might not reflect oil fundamentals at all, but rather shifts in the geopolitical premium related to Iran. “Extremely difficult to judge how it is evolving,” said UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, who’s keeping an eye out for any announcement on the next round of talks. 4
Supply’s still the other lever in play. OPEC shaved off 60,000 barrels per day in January, pulling total production down to 28.34 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey. Losses in Nigeria and Libya drove most of that drop. OPEC+, with Russia in the mix, put its monthly output hikes on ice for Q1, worried about oversupplying the market. 5
Sanctions are part of the equation here. Investors are eyeing if stricter measures actually create bottlenecks on the ground. The European Union is looking to add Georgian and Indonesian ports that ship Russian oil to its sanctions list, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters. If approved, EU companies and individuals would be blocked from doing business with those ports. 6
Asian refiners are beginning to adjust their crude sourcing. According to two trade sources, Indian Oil Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp—both state-run—picked up 2 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude from Trafigura, set for delivery in the back half of April. The move reflects a wider push by refiners to branch out from Russian cargoes and broaden their supply base. 7
Supply is ticking back up in other regions, too. Output at Chevron-led Tengiz in Kazakhstan bounced to about 60% of normal—roughly 550,000 bpd—following shutdowns caused by last month’s fires at power facilities, according to two industry sources cited by Reuters. The field is expected to hit full capacity by Feb. 23. 8
Still, headlines have the market on a short leash—any sign of progress on talks or uninterrupted shipping, and that premium disappears in a hurry. When no supply gets knocked offline, traders circle back to fundamentals: crude in storage, and just how fast demand is eating it up.
Wednesday’s first main hurdle: the Energy Information Administration drops its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. That’s the go-to for traders tracking crude inventories, product demand, and how refineries are operating. 9
OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday, providing an updated snapshot of supply, demand, and inventory projections for 2026. 10
U.S. consumer price index figures for January land on Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, a release that tends to jolt the dollar and shake up interest-rate wagers. For oil markets, it’s the next big macro checkpoint after inventories and OPEC’s update. 11
