London, Feb 17, 2026, 08:27 GMT — Regular session
- Lloyds shares held steady at the open, with traders zeroing in on UK rate-cut expectations.
- This week, attention is on the new buyback announcement and UK inflation figures.
Lloyds Banking Group plc edged down roughly 0.1% to 101.3 pence at 0827 GMT Tuesday, just below Monday’s close of 101.4 pence. Over the last 52 weeks, shares have ranged from 60.78 pence up to 114.60 pence.
Lloyds shares have tracked moves in UK interest rates. With its big mortgage book, the bank often serves as a gauge for the pace at which policy loosening hits borrowers and household finances.
This week’s packed data slate could shake things up. The Office for National Statistics will drop January inflation figures at 0700 GMT on Wednesday, then roll out January retail sales at the same hour Friday. The Bank of England, for its part, isn’t set to announce its next policy move until March 19.
Lloyds disclosed it repurchased 11 million shares on Monday from Goldman Sachs International, paying between 101.2 pence and 102.1 pence per share, and averaging 101.5415 pence. All the shares are headed for cancellation—a move that trims the outstanding share count and, over time, can nudge earnings per share higher.
On Monday, Lloyds released a supplementary prospectus—approved by the FCA—for its £25 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, backing its ongoing debt issuance activities under the programme.
Bank stocks haven’t had it easy lately. UK lenders managed a rebound on Monday: NatWest picked up 4.7%, Barclays climbed 1.5%, according to Reuters, and Lloyds opened nearly 2% higher, City AM noted.
Rate bets are still steering the action. According to a Reuters poll out Monday, most economists expect the BoE to lower the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% in March, down from 3.75%. “We stick to our call for the next Bank Rate cut to come in March,” Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said. Over at TD Securities, James Rossiter called the MPC’s 2026 inflation forecast “quite surprising” for just how low it came in. Reuters
Lower rates tend to boost mortgage demand and refinancing for Lloyds. But there’s a catch: when rate cuts outpace the adjustment of funding costs, bank margins—the spread between lending income and deposit payouts—can get pinched.
There’s risk whichever way inflation breaks. Stickier inflation? Rate cuts get delayed, and the sector might surrender some of its recent rally. A sharp drop in inflation, though, could do the opposite—markets might start pricing in quicker cuts, which could weigh on bank earnings forecasts that assume gradual, not abrupt, easing.
