NEW YORK, Feb 24, 2026, 13:08 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX March natural gas dropped 0.9% to $2.958/mmBtu, heading for its weakest finish since Oct. 16
- Prices slipped under pressure from milder weather in early March and consistent production, though LNG feedgas flows remained close to their highs.
- Traders now look ahead to Thursday, when the U.S. storage report lands.
U.S. natural gas futures dipped again Tuesday, shaving off about 1% as milder weather forecasts took the edge off heating demand and sent prices to a fresh four-month low. March gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 2.7 cents, settling at $2.958 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) with only two sessions left as the front-month. Data from LSEG put Lower 48 output at 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for February so far. Total demand—including exports—is expected to slide to 128.4 bcfd next week, down from 138.3 bcfd this week. Flows heading to U.S. LNG plants climbed to 18.7 bcfd, while West Texas Waha cash prices stayed stuck in the red for a 13th consecutive day. (Business Recorder)
The focus shifts now to how much weather premium still lingers in the price, with winter almost spent. Once prices dip below $3, storage calculations start to matter more, and headlines fade into the background.
Another wrinkle: the roll. As the March contract heads into expiry, shifts in liquidity and positioning can easily outpace the fundamentals for several sessions. The market ends up looking twitchier than the actual forecast suggests.
The day before, gas moved in the opposite direction. March futures added 4.3 cents, settling at $3.090 on Monday. Another winter storm buried parts of the U.S. Northeast, and LNG export flows hovered near record highs, Reuters reported. Globally, gas hovered close to $11 per mmBtu at both Europe’s Dutch TTF and Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), a level that continues to support export demand chatter. (Oil & Gas 360)
Weather remains a key driver, but the outlook’s flipped. The National Weather Service now sees above-normal temperatures blanketing most of the Lower 48 between Feb. 28 and Mar. 8—except the Northeast—according to Energy Intelligence. Gelber & Associates, the consultancy, added that the market might be “reluctant to extend rallies” as long as supply doesn’t tighten. (Energy Intelligence)
In Europe, the region’s appetite for cargoes is still influencing the market. Inventories stand at roughly 32%—well below the five-year average of 49%—with Kpler calling for a record 14.20 million tons of LNG arrivals in February, according to Reuters. For March, Kpler put U.S. LNG exports at 11.19 million tons, close to an all-time high, while China’s spot demand remained subdued. (Reuters)
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF tied to natural gas futures, slipped roughly 1.7% to $11.55 in early afternoon action. (Investing.com)
Focus from analysts has tightened onto just two drivers: storage levels and the weather. “Weather conditions and the pace of inventory drawdowns will remain the key variables for natural gas prices,” said Kim Kwang-rae, analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. (Pulse)
But the drop isn’t linear. Early March could bring colder weather, a sharper storage draw, or a quicker jump in LNG feedgas—any of which might tighten balances fast and trigger a short-covering rally.
Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration storage data drops at 10:30 a.m. ET, Feb. 26. The March contract rolls off soon, so eyes shift to April, with traders zeroing in on the pace of storage deficit declines and the post-report swings in weather models. (eia.gov)
