London, March 1, 2026, 12:19 GMT — The session has ended.
- UK markets face a Monday open shaped by oil and shipping risks following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
- The FTSE 100 wrapped up Friday with yet another record finish. Bank shares, though, slid on fears tied to private-credit contagion.
- The new week opens with UK factory PMI on tap, plus a packed slate of earnings.
London’s back in action Monday, and the opening moves are all about crude and the latest geopolitical flare-up. OPEC+, which brings together OPEC members and partners like Russia, has tentatively signed off on a small supply boost, according to five sources who spoke with Reuters, after conflict with Iran snarled Gulf shipping routes. With navigation advisories slowing oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz, prices shot to around $73 a barrel on Friday.
That drops onto a UK index that’s been inching upward. The FTSE 100 finished Friday up 0.6% at 10,910.55, marking its third consecutive record close. Barclays slid 4.2%, IAG lost 7.5%—banks and travel names trailing behind the broader move.
The timing is crucial: the Middle East flare-up lands just as investors have piled into the FTSE’s oil-heavy names, expecting central banks to cut rates later this year. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows through Hormuz. According to Capital Economics’ William Jackson, even a limited conflict risks driving Brent up to $80 a barrel; a more severe supply hit could see prices reach $100, stoking global inflation.
Signs point to a turbulent start, analysts warn. Barclays’ energy team flagged a risk that Brent “could hit $100,” cautioning that “oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday.” Over at OCBC, strategist Christopher Wong expects “safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to see an upside gap.” Reuters
Traders are eyeing the nuts-and-bolts here just as closely as the headlines. On Sunday, at least 150 tankers—crude and LNG—were sitting at anchor in the open Gulf beyond Hormuz, according to shipping data. Iranian guards told an Aspides official that “no ship is allowed to pass” the strait. Reuters
The collapse of UK mortgage firm Market Financial Solutions has emerged as the latest flashpoint for banks, unsettling both lenders and private-credit investors toward the end of the week. Reuters, referencing court filings, flagged a potential collateral gap of 930 million pounds. “We’re starting to see these types of things pop up,” noted Joe Saluzzi at Themis Trading. Reuters
FTSE 100 futures barely budged Sunday, with the March contract hovering near 10,906 points, Barchart data showed.
Risk sentiment worldwide looked shaky heading into the weekend. U.S. equity markets slid on Friday, the S&P 500 losing 0.4%, and the Dow dropping 1.1%, as fresh inflation numbers and a sharp tech retreat hit investor nerves.
Monday at 09:30 GMT brings the final S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI, offering an early look at factory activity as March gets underway. The survey is among the first snapshots of current demand.
Earnings might yet grab the spotlight. Kicking off the week of March 2, Bunzl and Smith & Nephew are set to report Monday. Later on, Metro Bank, Quilter, Aviva, Admiral, ITV, Reckitt Benckiser, Taylor Wimpey, Harbour Energy and several others line up for results.
This open hangs on a single question: does the oil shock last? If sea lanes clear quickly or if Tehran and Washington de-escalate, crude prices could fall just as fast—and that would cool the rally in energy stocks. But a broader conflict would push the other way, putting the squeeze on airlines and consumer shares, and kicking up inflation worries once more.
Next up for investors: oil’s opening price when trading picks up on Monday. After that, the UK PMI numbers hit, and then it’s the Bank of England rate call set for March 19.
