New York, March 3, 2026, 12:14 EST — Regular session
Circle Internet Group jumped 5.8% to $101.76 on Tuesday, bouncing around between $89.58 and $102.00 in a volatile session. With risk assets shaky, traders found reasons to chase the rate-sensitive “stablecoin” narrative.
Circle’s revenue depends heavily on income generated from the reserve assets backing USDC, its main stablecoin, which is meant to track the value of the U.S. dollar. According to its IPO filing, the company keeps most of these USDC reserves in the Circle Reserve Fund—a government money market fund managed by BlackRock and held at Bank of New York Mellon. What’s left generally sits as cash in various banks.
This week, that connection comes into play as traders grapple with inflation risk. Oil rallied roughly 8%, reaching its highest level of 2024, after the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalated—forcing a fresh look at the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. New York Fed President John Williams said “further reductions” in rates “will eventually be warranted” if inflation falls in line with his outlook. Reuters
It’s been a rough stretch for stocks. Reuters summed up a worsening rout hitting both equities and government bonds, as energy prices spiked and investors braced for an inflation shock. “No end to hostilities in sight,” the report noted, while RBC’s George Moran added: “It feels like the market is interpreting this as much more of an inflationary shock than a growth shock.” Reuters
Mizuho tweaked its stance as well, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The firm kept a neutral rating on Circle, but nudged its price target higher—to $100, up from $90.
Another fresh Form 4 caught investor attention: Circle CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen offloaded 47,908 Class A shares at $90 apiece on Feb. 26. The SEC filing, accepted Mar. 2, notes the transaction ran through a 10b5-1 trading plan—so it was pre-scheduled.
Circle’s most recent major company update dropped last week, as it posted fourth-quarter numbers. USDC’s circulation landed at $75.3 billion by year-end, and combined revenue plus reserve income totaled $770 million. The company highlighted fresh traction for its Circle Payments Network, naming Visa, Intuit, and Polymarket among firms taking up USDC-based infrastructure. CEO Jeremy Allaire called the quarter “another step forward” in building the “infrastructure for an open, programmable internet financial system.” Circle
But things can shift quickly. If tensions ease or energy prices fall, expectations for rate cuts could return, putting pressure on the yield Circle collects from reserves. On the flipside, a sudden risk-off swing could still dent crypto-related flows and mood, despite USDC’s design for stability.
Next up for traders: the rate tape. Friday, March 6 will bring the U.S. jobs report — a data drop that tends to jolt forecasts for the Fed’s next steps, and with that, tweak the cash yield Circle counts on for its reserve returns.
