NEW YORK, March 23, 2026, 12:27 EDT
American Airlines Group jumped 3.6% to $10.81 on Monday, tracking a sharp drop in oil prices after President Donald Trump announced a five-day delay on U.S. strikes against Iranian power plants. Earlier, the stock briefly reached $11.40 before pulling back.
This shift is significant—fuel ranks just behind labor as the largest expense for U.S. airlines, and major carriers here typically skip hedging, leaving them exposed to price swings. Since late February, when fighting erupted, Reuters noted jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, slamming directly into airline profits.
Last week, American told investors it’s looking at first-quarter revenue climbing more than 10% from a year ago—calling it the biggest year-over-year quarterly revenue jump in company history outside the pandemic recovery stretch. The same filing put jet fuel costs at an expected $2.75 per gallon, and the airline said its adjusted loss should land at the lower end of its prior range.
On March 17, Reuters said both American and Delta pointed to about $400 million in first-quarter losses tied to pricier fuel. CEO Robert Isom noted revenue was picking up “faster than expected,” and that trend looked set to continue into April and May. Reuters
Airlines rallied across the board: United Airlines climbed 3.8%, Delta Air Lines tacked on 3.4%, and Southwest Airlines picked up 3.3%. The moves hint that investors favored the entire sector, not just American on isolated news.
Analysts aren’t relaxing. Nicolas Owens at Morningstar pointed to the spike in fuel prices—he says U.S. airline profits will take a hit starting in March. Jefferies, for its part, calculated earlier this month that American could see its 2026 earnings slashed by roughly 35% if fuel costs jump 5%.
Oil’s outlook remains shaky. Goldman Sachs, in a Sunday note, raised its Brent forecast to $110 a barrel for March and April, saying traders continue to price in risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz—this, despite the drop on Monday.
Monday’s rebound hangs in the balance as headlines hit. Iran’s Fars News Agency pushed back on Trump’s assertion of U.S. contact. And Chris Larkin at E*TRADE flagged that for a relief rally to stick, markets will want “tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front.” Reuters
