BRUSSELS, April 9, 2026, 21:06 CEST
European natural gas prices hovered close to 44 euros per megawatt hour on Thursday, sticking near levels seen after the Dutch TTF benchmark—the region’s key gauge—dropped 15% on Wednesday. Brussels downplayed the Iran crisis, saying there’s no immediate threat to supply. The TTF was last seen trading near 44.48 euros per MWh, the typical reference in the market.
The drop is significant as Europe heads into the storage refill period—utilities and traders are already sourcing gas for the coming winter. EU countries have to hit 80% storage by November. According to an EU official, it’s better to start injections early and sidestep a late-summer scramble.
Goldman Sachs trimmed its second-quarter outlook for the European TTF benchmark, lowering the estimate to 50 euros per MWh from its prior 70-euro call. The revision banks on LNG flows through Hormuz starting to return to normal by mid-April. But if there are shipping holdups or production sites are hit harder than anticipated, the bank warned prices might once again top 75 euros.
Some supply pressure is easing. QatarEnergy is moving ahead with plans to bring LNG output back online, Reuters reports, citing a source. Two out of three trains at QELNG North 1 have resumed operations; the third remains offline for now. But a complete restart hinges on whether ships can transit the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Menelaos Ydreos, secretary general at the International Gas Union, the real issue wasn’t about running out of fuel, but rather a breakdown in logistics. “This was not a supply crisis. This was a supply chain crisis,” he said. Roughly 20% of global LNG usually transits through Hormuz, Ydreos pointed out, and when cargoes chased higher prices, poorer Asian buyers ended up feeling the squeeze first. Reuters
Asia’s energy crunch isn’t letting up. India’s GAIL snapped up three spot LNG cargoes to plug the gap, with finance director Rakesh Jain noting the company’s Dabhol terminal is running at just 2.25 million tonnes a year—far below its 5 million-tonne capacity. Hindustan Petroleum, meanwhile, has hit a wall finding shipments for its Chhara terminal, according to a source cited by Reuters.
Not much of a rebound here: relief remains scarce. On Thursday, just seven ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours—normally, that number is closer to 140, ship-tracking data show. That’s less than 10% of typical volumes.
“Most shipping lines are likely to remain cautious, and two weeks will not be enough to clear the backlog,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt at Verisk Maplecroft. Gas prices, then, could face another surge right as Europe kicks off its winter stockpiling. Reuters
Brussels stays composed, but nobody’s letting their guard down. The Commission’s gas coordination group flagged no urgent supply risks, yet cautioned about persistent fallout from the recent price spike. Traders now fixate on a clear pivot: more Qatari output and unobstructed shipping could drag TTF lower. If relief stalls, storage needs might start to prop up natural gas prices.
