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Why ON Semiconductor’s $103 Stock Faces a Hard Earnings Test on Monday
3 May 2026
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Why ON Semiconductor’s $103 Stock Faces a Hard Earnings Test on Monday

May 3, 2026, 08:07 MST, Scottsdale, Arizona.

  • ON Semiconductor will report its first-quarter results after the bell Monday. Wall Street is looking for earnings to land around 61 cents a share, with revenue expected at $1.49 billion.
  • The stock jumped before the report, finishing Friday at $103.03, a clear stretch above the average analyst target on MarketBeat.
  • Investors are looking for real signs that demand for auto and industrial chips is leveling out, rather than just watching the company clear a low bar.

ON Semiconductor Corporation heads into Monday’s Q1 earnings call with its stock hovering just below a recent high. The bar is raised for management: investors are watching closely for any sign that demand for automotive and industrial chips is actually coming back.

Scottsdale-based chipmaker onsemi will post quarterly numbers after the bell on May 4, covering the period ended April 3. A conference call follows at 5 p.m. Eastern. Three months ago, management sounded a cautious note; this time, investors seem to be pricing in a more optimistic turnaround. That puts Monday’s results squarely in focus as the next test for the shares.

ON ended Friday at $103.03, up 2.2%, with its market cap landing near $42.0 billion. Investors now turn to the upcoming first-quarter report, but it’s what management signals for Q2 that’s likely to set the next direction, not the Q1 numbers themselves.

MarketBeat reported Saturday that of the 30 brokerages covering onsemi, 14 call it a buy, 15 sit at hold, and only one recommends selling. The average price target for the next 12 months lands at $67.15, which is a significant step down from the stock’s latest levels.

The bar for onsemi isn’t set especially high right now. TradingView consensus puts Q1 revenue at $1.49 billion, EPS at 61 cents—right in line with the company’s February guidance: $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion in revenue, adjusted EPS somewhere between 56 and 66 cents.

Investors aren’t fully sold on whether the rebound has real legs yet. Still, TradingView’s StockStory feed shows sentiment for analog semis is on the upswing, with stocks in the space up an average 34.9% over the last month. Texas Instruments delivered 18.6% revenue growth in Q1; Magnachip managed a 3.3% increase—both flagged by StockStory as potential signals from across the group. ON? That one really popped, soaring 62.6% in the same period, per the feed.

ON produces power and sensing chips used in vehicles, factories, and data centers. Power chips move electricity through cars and electronic devices. For high-voltage chips, especially in EVs, silicon carbide—or SiC—stands out for cutting energy loss and heat.

Management keeps selling the story. Late April saw onsemi announce expanded partnerships with NIO and Geely—both companies tied to those 900-volt EV platforms. The promise: faster charging and less energy lost as heat with these higher-voltage systems. CEO Hassane El-Khoury highlighted Geely as proof that chipmakers and automakers are working together earlier and with more detail in vehicle development. NIO, meanwhile, said its collaboration with onsemi is about making the jump from 400V to 900V vehicle tech.

Fourth-quarter numbers painted a rough picture for ON. Revenue came in at $1.53 billion, down 11% from a year earlier, with every segment posting declines. “Increasing signs of stabilization,” CEO El-Khoury offered. CFO Thad Trent pointed out the company returned all $1.4 billion in 2025 free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks. onsemi

Stability isn’t a given here. in February, Reuters reported onsemi was dealing with too much inventory—customers working down their chip supplies. Analysts pointed to building strain in the SiC business, with Chinese competitors stepping up and EV demand not keeping pace with earlier expectations. Reuters also highlighted a threat: U.S. clean-energy tax credits could get trimmed, which might slow adoption.

Monday’s call probably won’t change much. A small beat on earnings likely won’t impress unless management brings news of bigger orders, busier plants, or at least some margin gains. Should the outlook sound cautious—even if Q1 numbers check out—investors might start questioning a stock already priced above most Wall Street targets.

Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and emerging industries. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and previously worked in market research before moving into financial journalism. Her coverage focuses on the companies, innovations and economic trends influencing global investors.

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