London, May 11, 2026, 13:03 BST
- Silver is sticking close to $80, following its biggest weekly jump of the year.
- The next major hurdle for yields, the dollar, and metals lands with Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report.
- If $83 is cleared decisively, the outlook changes. Otherwise, a drop into the low $70s is back in play.
Silver hovered just under $80 an ounce Monday after notching its strongest week of 2026, with traders eyeing Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data to see if the surge has more room. Spot silver inched up 0.2% to $80.45 by 1037 GMT. Gold, on the other hand, dropped 1.1%, pressured as inflation jitters from higher oil prices rattled the precious metals space.
The April U.S. Consumer Price Index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday—a key inflation print. A strong reading might push up Treasury yields and the dollar, weighing on silver, which doesn’t offer any interest.
Spot silver wrapped last week at $80.34, marking a 6.61% jump after swinging from $72.20 to a peak of $82.13, FXEmpire’s James Hyerczyk noted. “Everything else is noise until that number hits Tuesday morning,” Hyerczyk said, referring to the CPI release. FXEmpire
Silver just flashed its first real sign of a rebound after tumbling hard earlier this year. Reuters market analyst Christopher Romano noted that silver managed to steady up after plunging to $60.94 back in March—about 50% below the Jan. 29 record high of $121.64. Now, prices have pushed above two downtrend lines, those chart markers that track declining peaks and signal market weakness.
Right now, the big test is whether prices can clear that $82 to $83 zone. According to Reuters, if crude manages to close above April’s $83.04 peak, it would snap the streak of “lower highs”—where every bounce runs out of steam sooner than the last. That could open the door to $90, and possibly set up a run at March’s $96.38 level. Reuters
The risk isn’t one-sided. If silver stalls below April’s peak, Romano said, that would just underline the lower-highs pattern and might shift the focus toward the $70-$71 zone.
Oil remains in focus. Brent crude punched past $103 a barrel, according to Reuters, after U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s answer to a peace plan. Bybit’s chief market analyst Han Tan noted that “inflation risks still weigh heavy,” with Middle East negotiations going nowhere. Reuters
Other metals didn’t move in lockstep with silver. Gold dropped on renewed rate concerns, and both platinum and palladium edged lower. Silver, though, managed a modest uptick—industrial pull from solar, electronics, and EVs lending support.
Tight supply keeps shaping the outlook. Back in April, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus projected a sixth straight year of structural deficit for silver, noting that 762 million troy ounces have already been pulled from inventories since 2021. By 2026, that shortfall could stretch to 46.3 million ounces, they said.
Still, the squeeze threat hasn’t gone away. “Lease rates in London have largely normalised,” Metals Focus managing director Philip Newman told Reuters. Yet he flagged the risk of another liquidity crunch if volatility ticks higher and Indian demand comes back. Reuters
Long-term predictions remain all over the map. As of May 5, a Yahoo Finance guide noted silver price forecasts “vary wildly by expert,” highlighting the divide between those betting on a structural deficit and traders focused on rates moving the market right now. Yahoo Finance
Right now, the range remains tight. Hyerczyk pegged $78.72 as the crucial weekly pivot—staying above that leaves $83.06 and $83.61 as possible targets. Drop below, though, and the focus shifts to $72.03 and $70.86.
