NEW YORK, May 13, 2026, 8:01 PM EDT
- Cisco shares surged almost 20% after hours, as the company lifted both its fiscal 2026 guidance and AI order goal.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at new highs, even as the Dow edged lower following a stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation print.
- Prediction markets continued to price in about a 97.5% chance the Fed stands pat in June, leaving equity bulls waiting for any rate-cut relief.
A late-day jump in Cisco Systems shares reignited the AI rally after hours on Wednesday. Earlier, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had both finished at fresh records, shaking off another inflation jolt.
Cisco shares jumped 19.94% in after-hours action as of 7:59 p.m. ET, Investing.com data showed. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ticked up 0.16%. Invesco QQQ Trust advanced 0.50%, and the Dow ETF edged 0.21% higher, pointing to a stronger post-close mood.
This shift pulled attention back to AI infrastructure rather than rate jitters. Cisco reported $5.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers so far this fiscal year, lifting its full-year order outlook to $9 billion, up from $5 billion.
Cisco plans to eliminate under 4,000 positions—less than 5% of its total staff—redirecting resources into AI, silicon, optics, and security. CEO Chuck Robbins emphasized that success in AI will require “focus, urgency” and a sharp eye for channeling investment to where demand is strongest. Reuters
Investors wasted no time connecting the dots. Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped 5.55% after the bell, while Arista Networks tacked on 1.97%—both plays on the networking and data-center spending angle. Nvidia, a major force during the main session, booked an additional 0.87% gain in late moves.
The S&P 500 tacked on 43.29 points, up 0.58%, closing at 7,444.25. Over in tech, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 314.14 points, or 1.20%, to finish at 26,402.34. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 67.36 points, a 0.14% dip, settling at 49,693.20.
The rally showed little depth. Reuters noted losers topped gainers across both the NYSE and Nasdaq. S&P 500’s gains came mostly from communication services and tech, with utilities in the rear. “Technology remains resilient” despite persistent inflation, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Reuters
Inflation came in hot. The Producer Price Index jumped 1.4% in April, notching its largest one-month rise since March 2022. Over the year, the index climbed 6.0%—handily outpacing the 0.5% monthly increase economists had penciled in, according to Reuters.
The Federal Reserve remained the key risk variable. According to DeFi Rate’s real-time tracker combining Kalshi and Polymarket data, there was a 97.5% chance the central bank leaves rates unchanged at its June 16-17 policy meeting—Kalshi’s odds landed at 96.5%, with Polymarket at 97.6%. Elsewhere, Polymarket was pricing in a 69.3% implied probability that there are no Fed rate cuts in 2026.
Economists on Wall Street are shifting in unison. UBS Global Wealth Management now forecasts the Fed’s first rate cut in December 2026, pushing it back from September. The firm said conditions for a September cut just aren’t there yet. According to Reuters, traders had the odds of no rate cut in September at 87.4%.
For stocks, it comes down to earnings. Morgan Stanley just hiked its S&P 500 target for the year to 8,000, up from 7,800, framing the case as an “earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.” The bank pointed to AI adoption, pricing power and operating leverage as key drivers. Reuters
The risk here? Obvious. If inflation refuses to cool, with oil prices fueling wage demands and squeezing both services and corporate margins, the Fed could end up holding its line—or be pushed to hike rates still higher. Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser at Murphy & Sylvest, flagged the danger: stubbornly high producer prices may “pressure the Fed not to cut rates.” Reuters
After the bell, it’s clear traders are sticking with AI names. The question for Thursday: will Cisco’s orders be enough to draw in the broader market, or do the record highs keep hinging on just a handful of firms fast enough to dodge rising rates?
