NEW YORK, May 12, 2026, 06:05 EDT
Nasdaq 100 futures slipped out front in early Tuesday action, dragging U.S. stock-index futures lower as traders pulled back ahead of April inflation data. Higher oil prices added to the squeeze on tech names sensitive to interest rates.
Dow Jones futures slipped 56 points, or 0.11%, by 5:49 a.m. ET. S&P 500 futures dropped by 24.50 points, down 0.33%. Nasdaq 100 futures posted a steeper loss, falling 200.50 points, or 0.68%. These futures, traded ahead of the main session, offer a first look at how the indexes could open. On the commodity side, WTI crude climbed 3.12% and Brent crude added 2.46%.
This comes as Wall Street just notched fresh highs. On Monday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at record levels, lifted by ongoing strength in chips and AI. That momentum, though, faces a familiar hurdle: has inflation cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to consider easing up, or at least hold off on tightening further? “The semiconductor and AI infrastructure trade has kind of taken on a life of its own,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. Reuters
Investors will get the latest read on inflation when the Consumer Price Index drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. CPI tracks what consumers are paying for goods and services. Reuters’ economist survey puts headline CPI up 0.6% for April, pointing to a 3.7% increase from a year ago. Core CPI—which strips out food and energy—is expected to climb 0.3% for the month, 2.7% on the year. Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP’s chief economist, flagged a potential “roughly a tenth” bump in core inflation tied to a lag in rent data this month. Reuters
Oil’s weighing on stocks again. Brent crude hovered near $106 a barrel, with U.S. crude pushing past $100, as any optimism for a swift Iran resolution faded. About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG moves through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters noted—front and center in traders’ supply concerns. “If there’s no peace deal by end-May, oil prices could see further upside,” warned Suvro Sarkar, who leads DBS Bank’s energy sector team. Reuters
The energy shock has shaken up rate forecasts. BofA Global Research is looking for the Fed to hold steady into the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs has delayed its call for a first rate cut, eyeing December now. According to Reuters, traders are betting on rates staying put in the 3.50%-3.75% band through year-end.
Globally, sentiment slipped. European stocks edged lower, chip names took a breather, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment that the Iran cease-fire sits on “life support,” according to Reuters. Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, cautioned that Trump’s China trip isn’t likely to yield blockbuster agreements, noting simply: “stability at the margin matters.” Reuters
Premarket action wasn’t signaling a full-blown rout, but the weakness was clear in spots. The Invesco QQQ Trust, tracking the Nasdaq 100, slipped 0.67%. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust dipped 0.32%. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF eased back 0.13%. Chip stocks in particular caught the downside, with Intel off 2.90%, Micron down 2.29%, and Qualcomm dropping 2.21%, erasing Monday’s rally in the group.
Stock action was mixed. Hims & Hers Health slid in premarket trade following a first-quarter loss. ZoomInfo shares retreated as the company’s revenue guidance fell short of expectations. GitLab faced selling after outlining restructuring plans. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile tumbled, posting a quarterly loss that came in wider than anticipated.
But things can flip quickly. If core CPI comes in softer, bond yields might ease and growth stocks could catch a bid. On the flip side, a strong number—or another surge in oil—would probably weigh on the Nasdaq and push potential Fed cuts further down the road. According to ING’s Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, and Chris Turner, the Fed’s focus is squarely on the core number, but even a hot headline could stoke a more hawkish tilt in rates.
Premarket trading shows caution rather than chaos. Some investors are still picking up pieces of the earnings narrative, but inflation, oil, and the durability of the AI rally as macro risk returns to the spotlight are steering the day’s action.
