TAIPEI, June 2, 2026, 19:03 (UTC+8)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hit new highs Tuesday, with AI enthusiasm bringing buyers back to Taiwan’s top stock. GuruFocus valuation screens flagged a growing disconnect between TSMC’s share price and its model-based fair value.
TSMC’s shift has fresh weight today. The company isn’t just a chip benchmark anymore—its stock now leads the Taiwan market. Pricing, capacity, and Nvidia ties are all in the spotlight as real-time signals for how investors are valuing the AI build.
Taiwan’s Taiex ended the session up 219.40 points, or 0.48%, closing at 45,557.31, a new record. Turnover stood at NT$1.61 trillion. TSMC closed 1.06% higher in Taipei at NT$2,380, hitting an all-time high and adding around 200 points to the index, according to Focus Taiwan.
Tech giants pushing AI ideas at Computex Taipei set off gains in Taiwan’s main board, Concord Securities analyst Kerry Huang told Focus Taiwan. A surge in U.S. tech stocks helped, he said. “Enthusiasm toward AI offset geopolitical unease,” Huang added. Focus Taiwan – CNA English News
TSMC’s U.S.-listed shares finished at $435.63 in New York, climbing $17.63, market data showed. GuruFocus said TSMC led the advance while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index added 1.47% on June 1.
The valuation part was not as straightforward. GuruFocus said its discounted cash-flow earnings model gave TSMC an intrinsic value of $353.17, below the current price of $418.45, for a negative margin of safety of 18.5%. DCF discounts projected cash flows or earnings back to the present.
GuruFocus said its GF Value model sees fair value at $304.35, with the stock trading at $435.63. That puts shares 43.1% overvalued after climbing 41%. GF Value is GuruFocus’s own estimate, using historical multiples, business numbers, and growth forecasts.
TSMC’s April revenue came in at NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% year on year. Revenue for the first four months of 2026 reached NT$1.545 trillion, a rise of 29.9%. The company said both figures are unaudited. Bullish signals remain in the operating numbers.
TSMC is telling investors there’s still support to hold the name. First-quarter revenue was $35.90 billion, with the company guiding next quarter’s revenue to a range of $39 billion to $40.2 billion. TSMC put its gross margin target between 65.5% and 67.5%.
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei told analysts in April that demand tied to AI is still “extremely robust.” Wei said the company is confident in the multi-year AI trend. TSMC raised its full-year revenue outlook and said it expects capital spending will come in near the top of its previous $52 billion to $56 billion forecast. Reuters
Nvidia is still the main peer and customer reference point. CEO Jensen Huang told Computex on Tuesday that Nvidia has enough supply for “very robust growth” in CPUs and GPUs, but he still called the company supply constrained. According to Reuters, Nvidia’s new push into PC chips sets it more squarely against AMD, Intel and Apple. Reuters
The political climate in Taiwan feeds into both the premium and the risk. President Lai Ching-te, speaking at Computex, said Taiwan will keep peace and stability across the Strait. “As the world’s need for AI grows, so too does its need for a Taiwan that is stable, trustworthy, and capable of shouldering responsibility,” Lai said. Reuters
Market risk now is that flawless execution looks priced in. GuruFocus’ models might be conservative if AI demand and TSMC’s margins keep going higher, but the same models point to how much the stock could move if Nvidia demand, advanced-chip prices, returns on capital spending, or cross-Strait stability slip at all.
Growth stocks keep leading for now. “As rotational buying remains active with local investors’ appetite to take risks growing, the Taiex is likely to gain further,” Kerry Huang said. He expects the index could soon go above 46,000 points. Focus Taiwan – CNA English News
