NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 18:42 EST — After-hours
- Exxon shares rose in late trading after CEO Darren Woods said Exxon is ready to evaluate re-entering Venezuela, but only with legal change and security guarantees.
- Exxon has also flagged a fourth-quarter upstream hit from weaker crude, partly offset by stronger refining margins.
- Traders are watching Venezuela policy fallout and Exxon’s Jan. 30 quarterly results for guidance.
Exxon Mobil Corporation shares rose in after-hours trading on Friday after CEO Darren Woods said the company was ready to evaluate a return to Venezuela, where Exxon left after its assets were nationalized nearly two decades ago. Woods made the remarks at a White House meeting arranged days after U.S. forces captured and removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power. Exxon stock was up 1.4% at $124.61, after trading between $122.31 and $124.86.
The shift matters because it puts Venezuela — and its oil contracts — back on the map for big producers. For Exxon, it is less about a quick production bump and more about whether the rules can be made predictable enough to risk capital again.
It also lands at a touchy moment for the stock. Investors are heading into earnings season with crude prices still choppy, and Exxon has already told the market to expect a hit to its production profits from weaker oil and gas prices.
On Wednesday, Exxon said lower crude prices could cut fourth-quarter upstream earnings — its oil and gas production business — by about $800 million to $1.2 billion versus the third quarter. It said gas price moves could swing upstream earnings from minus $300 million to plus $100 million, while stronger refining margins — the gap between crude costs and gasoline and diesel prices — could add $300 million to $700 million. Scotiabank analysts said “many brokers, including us, have yet to mark to market,” flagging room for estimate cuts; LSEG data showed analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share. Reuters
In its quarterly “earnings considerations” disclosure, Exxon stressed the ranges are not an estimate of full quarterly profit and exclude a long list of operational and one-off variables. The filing said Exxon intends to post its fourth-quarter financial results at about 5:30 a.m. CT on Friday, Jan. 30, on its website and via an 8-K, a process tied to Regulation FD — the U.S. rule meant to keep disclosures fair and broad. Exxon Mobil Corporation
Oil prices moved in Exxon’s favor on Friday. Brent settled up 2.18% at $63.34 a barrel and U.S. WTI ended up 2.35% at $59.12, as traders weighed unrest in Iran and the risk of wider disruption tied to the Russia-Ukraine war. “The uprising in Iran is keeping the market on edge,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Reuters
Technically, Exxon is pressing the top of its recent range. The stock is within about $1.3 of its 52-week high of $125.93, with the 50-day moving average around $117.69 and the 200-day around $111.83 — levels many chart-focused traders treat as support in a pullback.
But the Venezuela angle cuts both ways. More barrels from Venezuela could weigh on prices if markets stay well supplied, and the policy and legal hurdles for any return remain large. Rystad Energy’s Matthew Bernstein put it bluntly: “$50 oil is really where production would start to fall,” a downside scenario that would quickly swamp any longer-dated optimism about new projects. Reuters
Next up, investors will watch for further detail from Washington and the companies involved on what “access” to Venezuela looks like in practice. For Exxon, the next hard catalyst is Jan. 30, when it reports results and updates investors on how much of the quarter’s price pain stuck, and what management expects next.
