WASHINGTON, June 3, 2026, 09:03 (EDT)
Social Security payments to U.S. retirees could drop by an average $500 a month if Congress doesn’t act before the program’s trust fund is depleted in 2032, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget on Wednesday. The Washington watchdog group said benefits would be cut 24% nationwide, with average monthly losses topping $500 in 29 states, from $459 in Mississippi to $556 in Connecticut.
The estimate translates a familiar actuarial warning into a household number. Social Security covers over 70 million receiving benefits and around 185 million workers paying into it, so even a partial cut would hit national income, not just retirement.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, or OASI, is the reserve used for paying retirement and survivor benefits. The Congressional Budget Office told the Senate Budget Committee in March that OASI would run out in fiscal 2032. After that, benefits would be cut under current law. In one scenario from CBO, payments would drop by an average of 28% a year from 2033 to 2036, but there isn’t a fixed method in law for how payments would be cut.
The date is now sooner after changes in tax law. Social Security chief actuary Karen P. Glenn told lawmakers last year that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would bring “material effects” for the trust funds, putting the net cost at $168.6 billion between 2025 and 2034. She said that would move OASI depletion up from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032. Social Security
Social Security won’t vanish if reserves run dry. The trustees’ latest report says the OASI fund could cover 77% of benefits even after depletion. The disability fund stays solvent at least through 2099. Medicare’s hospital insurance fund is in a similar spot—full payments last until 2033, then drops to 89%.
Lawmakers again face the usual, often disliked options: hike payroll taxes, cut benefits, bump up the retirement age, or take on more debt. A CRFB pitch would cap annual benefits at $100,000 for couples claiming at normal retirement age. CRFB said depending on the details, the plan might save $100 billion to $190 billion in ten years.
Politics isn’t easy here. The Reagan Institute had a survey, Fox Business said, showing 80% of registered voters don’t want higher payroll taxes, 90% don’t want benefits cut, and 74% are against raising the retirement age. Dan Rothschild, a director at the institute, said people are split; some want action, and others “want to push this off to the next generation.” Fox Business
The administration puts the responsibility on Congress. Frank Bisignano, Social Security commissioner, said after the trustees’ report the trust funds’ financial health is still a “top priority” and called for Congress and the agency to work together to protect and strengthen them. U.S. Department of the Treasury
The depletion date for Social Security isn’t locked in. Wage growth, tax revenue, immigration, inflation and life expectancy could all move the deadline. Congress could also act before benefits are cut. But the Bipartisan Policy Center said waiting usually means a tougher fix for retirees and taxpayers.
Warning signs have shifted from federal budget talks in Washington to monthly numbers at the state level. The budget math is tough, and so is the politics. Time is running short.
