New York, June 11, 2026, 09:03 (ET)
- Ford ended Wednesday at $14.30, off 4.35%. The stock then edged up a bit in premarket trading Thursday, quoted around $14.39 to $14.40.
- Novelis has restarted its Oswego, New York, hot mill, a key aluminum supplier for Ford’s F-150 trucks. Investors are watching the move.
- Ford’s 2026 outlook counts on the Novelis restart adding a net $1 billion, but the company still faces higher aluminum prices, tariffs and quality problems.
Ford Motor shares looked steadier early Thursday after falling sharply in the middle of the week. The big question for investors is whether the reopened Novelis aluminum mill will help take out a major drag on Ford’s truck profits. Ford stock ended Wednesday at $14.30, down 4.35%. Premarket Thursday, the shares were slightly up, trading around $14.39 to $14.40.
Novelis said its Oswego, New York, hot mill is back up after being down for months because of fires. Reuters on Wednesday reported the plant is essential to Ford’s F-150 pickups. Novelis said it’s working with customers to boost supply. Investors had been betting on a second-half recovery, but now there’s a real date.
Why does this hit Ford shareholders? F-Series trucks drive Ford’s profits, and those trucks use aluminum bodies. Reuters said Novelis supplies Stellantis and GM too, but Ford takes a big share since its F-Series line mostly runs on aluminum. The earlier supply hit forced Ford to slash its 2025 profit outlook and warn of as much as $2 billion in charges.
Novelis CEO Steve Fisher called the Oswego hot mill restart “an important step forward” for operations and for customers. The comment gives Ford a lift, but it does not mean output is back to normal. Novelis said it is working with customers as it ramps supply, so investors will need to see how quickly the mill hits steady volume. Novelis
Ford had already factored that recovery into its 2026 guidance. In its first-quarter report in April, the company lifted its full-year adjusted EBIT target to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Adjusted EBIT, which strips out special items, is watched by investors to track the main business. Ford said its outlook reflected a $1 billion net benefit from the Novelis recovery.
Wednesday’s selloff hit more than just Ford. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, the Dow lost 1.9%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2%, AP reported. Those broad declines can easily wipe out a bump from good news, especially when a stock has already run up.
Still, Ford isn’t off the hook with investors. In its April outlook, Ford said it faces $2 billion in commodity headwinds, mostly from aluminum and not counting temporary aluminum costs tied to Novelis. Tariffs add about another $1 billion, again excluding a one-time tariff benefit and the Novelis costs. So the Oswego restart might ease part of the squeeze but won’t remove all the cost pressure.
Ford’s quality issues were back in focus Thursday, with the automaker recalling 548,463 U.S. vehicles because of a center-console problem in some 2018–2024 Expedition models, according to Reuters and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Dealers will look at and swap out defective consoles as needed for free. Recalls can weigh on investors since they tend to add costs, distract management, and raise questions about Ford’s warranty controls.
Ford faces some risk that the Novelis restart won’t give profits a quick lift. The ramp could be slow. Unexpected supply problems, aluminum prices going up, pressure from tariffs, soft U.S. demand, or extra recall expenses—all of that could eat into the upside Ford has baked in. Ford’s Model e EV unit is also weighing on things. The company said it expects Model e to lose $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026 as it keeps putting money into its Universal EV platform and Ford Energy.
Right now, the stock trades caught between two stories. Some see the Novelis shock fading, helped by better supplies for Ford’s profitable trucks. Others point to the share slide, saying investors still need to see real volume, not just headlines about a restart.
Aluminum output at Oswego is the next key test. The question is whether Ford can get enough metal from the plant to restore Novelis-related profit in the back half. Ford has said it’s aiming for that recovery as part of the 2026 plan. Now, the stock faces a check on how much of that recovery is already priced in.
